• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision-Making Models

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A New Process for the Requirements Based Aerospace System Design and Optimization (요구도 기반 항공우주 시스템 강건최적설계 기법 연구)

  • Park, Hyeong-Uk;Lee, Jae-Woo;Byun, Yung-Hwan;Chung, Joon;Behdinan, Karman
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.255-266
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    • 2009
  • In this study, a robust aerospace system design process for the aerospace system is developed by considering the uncertainties of user requirements, manufacturing errors, and operational environment variation. User requirements are analyzed and quantified by decision making models and system engineering methods to select alternative concepts which satisfies the various requirements. Robust design and optimization method is applied to derive the robust solution of the selected system. First, a variance of objective function is calculated, and a mean value and a variance of target value are determined by the deterministic design optimization results of the system. A robust optimum design formulation is then needed to derive the robust solution that minimizes the variance of the response and moves the mean values to the target value. It is applied to Very Light Jet (VLJ) aircraft to which much attention is paid recently in civil aerospace market.

Searching an Efficient frontier in the DEA Model based on the Reference Point Method (참조점 방법을 이용한 DEA모형의 프론티어 탐구)

  • 오동일
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2000
  • DEA is a newly developed analyzing tool to measure efficiency evaluation of decision making units (DMU). It compares DMU by radial Projection on the efficient frontier. The purpose of this study is to show reference point approach used for searching solution in multiple objective linear Programming can be usefully used to determine flexible efficient frontier of each DMU In reference point approach, the minimization of ASF Produces an efficient points in frontier and enhances the usefulness of DEA by Providing flexibility in DEA and optimally allocating resources to DMU. Various DEA models can be supported by reference point method by changing the projection direction in order to choose the targets units, standards costs and management benching-marking.

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A Study on the Implication from Reform of HLC Institutional Accreditation Model (미국 고등학습위원회 기관평가인증제 평가모형 개혁의 시사점에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Hak
    • Korean Journal of Comparative Education
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.245-265
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this research is to find the features of HLC institutional accreditation model and the implication on the second period institutional accreditation of Korea. This research focus on accreditation model, accreditation period, comprehensive evaluation, criteria, decision making for accreditation status and accreditation supporting system. This research draws following suggestions to the second period institutional accreditation of Korea. 1. The institutional accreditation should apply various accreditation models according to the features of institute. 2. The institutional accreditation should focus on the autonomous quality improvement of institute with the quality assurance. 3. The quantitative evaluation should be reduced and qualitative evaluation based on mission and objects should be reinforced. 4. The interim evaluation should be strictly enforced for quality improvement. 5. The government should enlarge reflection the results of accreditation on financial aid to universities. 6. The web-based accreditation supporting system interworking with "Higher Education in Korea" service is needed.

Prediction of Baltic Dry Index by Applications of Long Short-Term Memory (Long Short-Term Memory를 활용한 건화물운임지수 예측)

  • HAN, Minsoo;YU, Song-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.497-508
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to overcome limitations of conventional studies that to predict Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The study proposed applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) named Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict BDI. Methods: The BDI time-series prediction was carried out through eight variables related to the dry bulk market. The prediction was conducted in two steps. First, identifying the goodness of fitness for the BDI time-series of specific ANN models and determining the network structures to be used in the next step. While using ANN's generalization capability, the structures determined in the previous steps were used in the empirical prediction step, and the sliding-window method was applied to make a daily (one-day ahead) prediction. Results: At the empirical prediction step, it was possible to predict variable y(BDI time series) at point of time t by 8 variables (related to the dry bulk market) of x at point of time (t-1). LSTM, known to be good at learning over a long period of time, showed the best performance with higher predictive accuracy compared to Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Conclusion: Applying this study to real business would require long-term predictions by applying more detailed forecasting techniques. I hope that the research can provide a point of reference in the dry bulk market, and furthermore in the decision-making and investment in the future of the shipping business as a whole.

A Simple Ensemble Prediction System for Wind Power Forecasting - Evaluation by Typhoon Bolaven Case - (풍력예보를 위한 단순 앙상블예측시스템 - 태풍 볼라벤 사례를 통한 평가 -)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Hyun-Goo;Kang, Yong-Heack;Yun, Chang-Yeol;Kim, Ji-Young;Lee, Jun-Shin
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2016
  • A simple but practical Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) for wind power forecasting was developed and evaluated using the measurement of the offshore meteorological tower, HeMOSU-1(Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unite-1) installed at the Southwest Offshore in South Korea. The EPS developed by the Korea Institute of Energy Research is based on a simple ensemble mean of two Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) models, WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. In addition, the Kalman Filter is applied for real-time quality improvement of wind ensembles. All forecasts with EPS were analyzed in comparison with the HeMOSU-1 measurements at 97 m above sea level during Typhoon Bolaven episode in August 2012. The results indicate that EPS was in the best agreement with the in-situ measurement regarding (peak) wind speed and cut-out speed incidence. The RMSE of wind speed was 1.44 m/s while the incidence time lag of cut-out wind speed was 0 hour, which means that the EPS properly predicted a development and its movement. The duration of cut-out wind speed period by the EPS was also acceptable. This study is anticipated to provide a useful quantitative guide and information for a large-scale offshore wind farm operation in the decision making of wind turbine control especially during a typhoon episode.

A CPU-GPU Hybrid System of Environment Perception and 3D Terrain Reconstruction for Unmanned Ground Vehicle

  • Song, Wei;Zou, Shuanghui;Tian, Yifei;Sun, Su;Fong, Simon;Cho, Kyungeun;Qiu, Lvyang
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1445-1456
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    • 2018
  • Environment perception and three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction tasks are used to provide unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) with driving awareness interfaces. The speed of obstacle segmentation and surrounding terrain reconstruction crucially influences decision making in UGVs. To increase the processing speed of environment information analysis, we develop a CPU-GPU hybrid system of automatic environment perception and 3D terrain reconstruction based on the integration of multiple sensors. The system consists of three functional modules, namely, multi-sensor data collection and pre-processing, environment perception, and 3D reconstruction. To integrate individual datasets collected from different sensors, the pre-processing function registers the sensed LiDAR (light detection and ranging) point clouds, video sequences, and motion information into a global terrain model after filtering redundant and noise data according to the redundancy removal principle. In the environment perception module, the registered discrete points are clustered into ground surface and individual objects by using a ground segmentation method and a connected component labeling algorithm. The estimated ground surface and non-ground objects indicate the terrain to be traversed and obstacles in the environment, thus creating driving awareness. The 3D reconstruction module calibrates the projection matrix between the mounted LiDAR and cameras to map the local point clouds onto the captured video images. Texture meshes and color particle models are used to reconstruct the ground surface and objects of the 3D terrain model, respectively. To accelerate the proposed system, we apply the GPU parallel computation method to implement the applied computer graphics and image processing algorithms in parallel.

Consumer behavior prediction using Airbnb web log data (에어비앤비(Airbnb) 웹 로그 데이터를 이용한 고객 행동 예측)

  • An, Hyoin;Choi, Yuri;Oh, Raeeun;Song, Jongwoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.391-404
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    • 2019
  • Customers' fixed characteristics have often been used to predict customer behavior. It has recently become possible to track customer web logs as customer activities move from offline to online. It has become possible to collect large amounts of web log data; however, the researchers only focused on organizing the log data or describing the technical characteristics. In this study, we predict the decision-making time until each customer makes the first reservation, using Airbnb customer data provided by the Kaggle website. This data set includes basic customer information such as gender, age, and web logs. We use various methodologies to find the optimal model and compare prediction errors for cases with web log data and without it. We consider six models such as Lasso, SVM, Random Forest, and XGBoost to explore the effectiveness of the web log data. As a result, we choose Random Forest as our optimal model with a misclassification rate of about 20%. In addition, we confirm that using web log data in our study doubles the prediction accuracy in predicting customer behavior compared to not using it.

A study on the Economic Analysis of Electronic Records & Archival Management in the Public Institutions (공공 전자기록관리의 경제성 분석을 위한 연구)

  • Hyun, Moonsoo
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.47
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    • pp.255-286
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to propose a tool for a comparison of public electronic records management in a public institution and a private records management facility and to reveal the considerations prior to decisions on the way of management. For developing a tool, it chooses CoMMPER as a basic model and modifies it after reviewing existing cost models, because only CoMMPER can over public records management. Modified-CoMMPER is added a new cost area[Aquisition], and is modified and extended cost elements and generic cost factors for the comparison. Public institutions which consider whether commission the management of public electronic records can use Modified-CoMMPER for comparing economic impacts in terms of long-term preservation. To make a rational decision on the way of management based on the economic analysis, this study proposed 3 main task. Fist, the scope of the activities has to be defined, second, the cost-effectiveness has to be estimated base on the cost model, for example Modified-CoMMPER, third, policy-making for the management of public electronic records must be proceeded based on the various researches on the cost of records management.

A Study on Developing Framework for Measuring of Security Risk Appetite (보안 위험성향 측정을 위한 프레임워크 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Gim, Gisam;Park, Jinsang;Kim, Jungduk
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 2019
  • The advancement of digital technology accelerates intelligence, convergence, and demands better change beyond traditional methods in all aspects of business models and technologies, infrastructure, processes, and platforms. Risk management is becoming more important because of various security risks, depending on the changing business environment and aligned to business goals is emerging from the existing information asset based risk management. For business aligned risk management, it is essential to understand the risk appetite for achieving business goals, which provides a basis for decision-making in subsequent risk management processes. In this paper, we propose a framework for analyzing the risk management framework, pre - existing risk analysis, and protection motivation theory that influences decisions on security risk management. To examine the practical feasibility of the developed risk appetite framework, we reviewed the applicability and significance of the proposed risk appetite framework through an advisory committee composed of security risk management specialists.

Key Factors Affecting Students' Satisfaction and Intention to Use e-Learning in Rwanda's Higher Education (르완다 고등교육기관 학생들의 e-러닝 만족도 및 사용의도에 영향을 미치는 핵심요인 연구)

  • Violaine, Akimana;Hwang, Gee-Hyun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to explore key factors which influence user's decision-making on the adoption of e-learning. We integrated UTAUT and Information Success Models to test that four independent factors affect student satisfaction to use e-learning in Rwanda's higher education. Data was collected by surveying students of University of Rwanda and Protestant Institute of Social Sciences (n=206). The analysis results showed that performance expectancy, facilitating conditions and effort expectancy except for social influence have a significant effect on students' satisfaction. This can help university administrators understand the factors that influence students' adoption of e-learning and incorporate these results into Rwanda's e-learning design and implementation. In final, Rwanda's government can contribute to establishing the e-learning policy and allocating its relevant resources centered on student needs.