Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회 논문집)

The Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회)
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A Simple Ensemble Prediction System for Wind Power Forecasting - Evaluation by Typhoon Bolaven Case -

풍력예보를 위한 단순 앙상블예측시스템 - 태풍 볼라벤 사례를 통한 평가 -

  • Kim, Jin-Young (New & Renewable Energy Resource Center, Korean Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Kim, Hyun-Goo (New & Renewable Energy Resource Center, Korean Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Kang, Yong-Heack (New & Renewable Energy Resource Center, Korean Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Yun, Chang-Yeol (New & Renewable Energy Resource Center, Korean Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Kim, Ji-Young (Korea Electric Power Research Institute) ;
  • Lee, Jun-Shin (Korea Electric Power Research Institute)
  • 김진영 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원센터) ;
  • 김현구 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원센터) ;
  • 강용혁 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원센터) ;
  • 윤창열 (한국에너지기술연구원 신재생에너지자원센터) ;
  • 김지영 (한국전력공사 전력연구원) ;
  • 이준신 (한국전력공사 전력연구원)
  • Received : 2015.12.24
  • Accepted : 2016.02.15
  • Published : 2016.02.28
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Abstract

A simple but practical Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) for wind power forecasting was developed and evaluated using the measurement of the offshore meteorological tower, HeMOSU-1(Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unite-1) installed at the Southwest Offshore in South Korea. The EPS developed by the Korea Institute of Energy Research is based on a simple ensemble mean of two Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) models, WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. In addition, the Kalman Filter is applied for real-time quality improvement of wind ensembles. All forecasts with EPS were analyzed in comparison with the HeMOSU-1 measurements at 97 m above sea level during Typhoon Bolaven episode in August 2012. The results indicate that EPS was in the best agreement with the in-situ measurement regarding (peak) wind speed and cut-out speed incidence. The RMSE of wind speed was 1.44 m/s while the incidence time lag of cut-out wind speed was 0 hour, which means that the EPS properly predicted a development and its movement. The duration of cut-out wind speed period by the EPS was also acceptable. This study is anticipated to provide a useful quantitative guide and information for a large-scale offshore wind farm operation in the decision making of wind turbine control especially during a typhoon episode.

Keywords

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