• 제목/요약/키워드: Cost Estimating Model

검색결과 342건 처리시간 0.025초

교환/전송 기술진화에 따른 전화교환망 구조변화-시뮬레이션 모형에 의한 사례 분석- (Estimating Telephone Network Structure and Investment Cost Changes)

  • 송석재;장석권;전용수
    • 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국경영과학회 1997년도 추계학술대회발표논문집; 홍익대학교, 서울; 1 Nov. 1997
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    • pp.138-141
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    • 1997
  • In this study, a simulation model is developed to analyze the effects of routing and scale-economy of transmission facilities on the traffic network topology and investment cost changes in a metropolitan telephone network. Computational experiments showed that the wide deployment of bifurcated routing in a dual-homing configuration reduces significantly the traffic network connectivity and the investment cost. Its enhanced version, when combined with the subscriber network cost model, can be used as a prototype cost proxy model for figuring out the access charges in a multi-operator environment.

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PROBABILISTIC MEASUREMENT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL COST ESTIMATES

  • Seokyon Hwang
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.488-493
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    • 2013
  • Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

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공공건축물 계획단계에서의 용도별 공사비 예측에 관한 연구 - 육군 병영생활관을 대상으로 - (Cost Estimating for Public Facilities at Early Stage Using Functional Area Cost - Focusing on Army Barracks -)

  • 이현수;정명준;박문서;손보식
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.3-13
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    • 2010
  • 개산견적 모델은 예측의 정밀성뿐만 아니라 설계대안 변화에 대한 유연성, 사용자 중심의 효율성을 고려해야 한다. 본 연구에서는 이를 구현하기 위해 건축물을 구성하는 여러 포함시설을 건축양상에 맞게 주요 용도별로 분류하여 공사비 영향변수로 설정한 다음, 통계적 분석을 통해 용도별 시설단가 관계함수를 도출하여 공사비를 예측하는 용도별 분류에 의한 공사비 산정개념을 제안하였다. 그리고 대표적 군사시설인 육군 병영생활관을 대상으로 용도별 공사비 산정 개념을 모델화하고 신규사례를 대상으로 모델의 신뢰성을 검증하였다. 용도별 공사비는 견적의 정밀성을 향상시켰을 뿐만 아니라, 발주자 니즈(Needs)를 반영한 용도별 조합과 그 규모에 따른 맞춤형 공간을 계획할 수 있고 다양한 설계 대안에 대한 비용비교가 가능하다.

BIM-BASED TIME SERIES COST MODEL FOR BUILDING PROJECTS: FOCUSING ON MATERIAL PRICES

  • Sungjoo Hwang;Moonseo Park;Hyun-Soo Lee;Hyunsoo Kim
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2011
  • As large-scale building projects have recently increased for the residential, commercial and office facilities, construction costs for these projects have become a matter of great concern, due to their significant construction cost implications, as well as unpredictable market conditions and fluctuations in the rate of inflation during the projects' long-term construction periods. In particular, recent volatile fluctuations of construction material prices fueled such problems as cost forecasting. This research develops a time series model using the Box-Jenkins approach and material price time series data in Korea in order to forecast trends in the unit prices of required materials. Building information modeling (BIM) approaches are also used to analyze injection times of construction resources and to conduct quantity take-off so that total material prices can be forecast. To determine an optimal time series model for forecasting price trends, comparative analysis of predictability of tentative autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models is conducted. The proposed BIM-based time series forecasting model can help to deal with sudden changes in economic conditions by estimating material prices that correspond to resource injection times.

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PRICE모델을 이용한 적정 획득비용 추정 방안 (A Study on Proper Acquisition Cost Estimation Using the PRICE Model)

  • 한현진;강성진
    • 한국국방경영분석학회지
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.10-27
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    • 2001
  • This paper deals with the application of PRICE model in estimating the proper acquisition cost for weapon budgeting phase. The PRICE(Parametric Review of Information for Costing and Evaluation) Hardware model is a computerized method for deriving cost estimates of electronic and mechanical hardware assemblies and systems. The model can be used in obtaining not only initial cost estimates in conceptual phase, but also detailed cost estimates in budgeting phase depending on available historical and empirical data. We analyzed first step cost estimate parameters and derived cost equations using PRICe output dta. Using weight and complexity, We can find cost variation. Sensitivity analysis shows that cost increases exponentially as complexity increases exponentially as complexity increases. We estimated KAAV\`s (Korea Amphibious Assault Vehicle) production cost using the PRICE model and compare with engineering cost estimates which is based on actual production data submitted by the production company. The result shows that tow estimates are close within $\pm2%$ differences.

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공동주택 거푸집 공사의 생산성 분석을 위한 시뮬레이션 모델 개발 (Development of a Simulation Model for the Productivity Analysis of Form Work in Multi-Family Housing Construction projects)

  • 강동완;문현석;현창택
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2009년도 추계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.193-198
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    • 2009
  • It is an important issue in cost management to contract with the standard of cost estimate by the reasonable way in public construction projects. For the standard of cost estimate based on the Standard Estimating System, there is a difference of labor inputs between Standard Estimating System and actual quantities in construction projects. The duration of form work in multi-family housing depends on the manpower compared with other work, which is the critical path on the schedule management to be decided quality, and is the important to the cost management of construction projects. This study presented a simulation model of the productivity analysis for selecting the standard work type of form work in Multi-family housing construction projects.

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엔지니어링 3D모델 기반 원전 건설사업비 산정방안 분석 (Analysis of Cost Estimate Method Based on Engineering 3D Model for Nuclear Power Plant Construction Project)

  • 이상현
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2018년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.294-295
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    • 2018
  • Nowadays, the construction industry utilizes 3D models in the designing process, on which research is being conducted to establish an automated system for project cost estimation in connection with information related to construction such as material unit costs and wages, beyond the level of design interference review and construction quantity estimation. In this process, the project cost is estimated in connection with unit price data after takeoff the quantity based on the 3D model attributes and data types. A way to reduce cost and risk would be first developing prototypes of some of essential buildings and works, comparing and validating the outcomes, and then extending to the whole scope, because estimates differ on the basis of the scope and level of 3D design models as well as the data accuracy. This study analyzes case studies of project cost estimation by computing the quantity on the basis of 3D model in the construction industry and explores methodologies and management measures applicable for estimating nuclear power plant construction project costs.

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병원의 활동기준원가를 이용한 총체적 질관리 모형 및 질비용 산출 모형 개발 (Development of the Model for Total Quality Management and Cost of Quality using Activity Based Costing in the Hospital)

  • 조우현;전기홍;이해종;박은철;김병조;김보경;이상규
    • 보건행정학회지
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.141-168
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    • 2001
  • Healthcare service organizations can apply the cost of quality(COQ) model as a method to evaluate a service quality improvement project such as Total Quality Management (TQM). COQ model has been used to quantify and evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of TQM project through estimation between cost and benefit in intervention for a quality Improvement to provide satisfied services for a customer, and to identify a non value added process. For estimating cost of quality, We used activities and activity costs based on Activity Based Costing(ABC) system. These procedures let the researchers know whether the process is value-added by each activity, and identify a process to require improvement in TQM project. Through the series of procedures, health care organizations are service organizations can identify a problem in their quality improvement programs, solve the problem, and improve their quality of care for their costumers with optimized cost. The study subject was a quality improvement program of the department of radiology department in a hospital with n bed sizes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The principal source of data for developing the COQ model was total cases of retaking shots for diagnoses during five months period from December of the 1998 to April of the 1999 in the department. First of the procedures, for estimating activity based cost of the department of diagnostic radiology, the researchers analyzed total department health insurance claims to identify activities and activity costs using one year period health insurance claims from September of the 1998 to August of the 1999. COQ model in this study applied Simpson & Multher's COQ(SM's COQ) model, and SM's COQ model divided cost of quality into failure cost with external and internal failure cost, and evaluation/prevention cost. The researchers identified contents for cost of quality, defined activities and activity costs for each content with the SM's COQ model, and finally made the formula for estimating activity costs relating to implementing service quality improvement program. The results from the formula for estimating cost of quality were following: 1. The reasons for retaking shots were largely classified into technique, appliances, patients, quality management, non-appliances, doctors, and unclassified. These classifications by reasons were allocated into each office doing re-taking shots. Therefore, total retaking shots categorized by reasons and offices, the researchers identified internal and external failure costs based on these categories. 2. The researchers have developed cost of quality (COQ) model, identified activities by content for cost of quality, assessed activity driving factors and activity contribution rate, and calculated total cost by each content for cost for quality, except for activity cost. 3. According to estimation of cost of quality for retaking shots in department of diagnostic radiology, the failure cost was ₩35,880, evaluation/preventive cost was ₩72,521, two times as much as failure cost. The proportion between internal failure cost and external failure cost in failure cost is similar. The study cannot identify trends on input cost and quality improving in cost of qualify over the time, because the study employs cross-sectional design. Even with this limitation, results of this study are much meaningful. This study shows possibility to evaluate value on the process of TQM subjects using activities and activity costs by ABC system, and this study can objectively evaluate quality improvement program through quantitative comparing input costs with marginal benefits in quality improvement.

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사업기획단계에서의 현수교의 물량추정을 위한 모델연구 (Estimation Model for Approximate Construction Quantities of Suspension Bridge in Early Stage)

  • 박원태;천경식
    • 복합신소재구조학회 논문집
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.24-29
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    • 2015
  • Bridge construction cost estimates have generally been conducted by using historial unit-price(per meter or square meter). The traditional estimating method based on unit-price references can never completely reflect the specialty of cable supported bridge. In this paper, we have developed the system for supporting the approximate construction cost and the quantity estimation based on 3D model information in the pre-project planning phase of 3-span continuous suspension bridge with 2-pylons. First of all, we'd analyzed the design information (such as structural design report, blueprint and quantity) and the real cost data from the existing suspension bridges and derived the design variables of the bridges. We developed the BIM wizard that generates a suspension bridge model parametrically based on derived design variables. The principle material quantities of suspension bridge are calculated directly from 3-dimensional bridge model built by using the BIM wizard. We have established the system that the construction cost can be estimated more specific than the traditional estimating method.

오브젝트-파라미터 통합 오피스 마감공사비 개산견적 모델 (Object-Parameter Integrated Schematic Estimation Model for Predicting Office Building Interior-finishing Costs)

  • 박성호;구교진;박성철
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2008년도 추계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.159-165
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    • 2008
  • For deciding the profitability and feasibility of the construction project, the schematic estimation has to not only link the design decision-making but also estimate the cost with reliability. The Object-based schematic estimation system was developed for easily linking with design-making and supports to evaluate the design alternatives in the design development stage but didn't consider the cost estimated by object supplementary and parameter work item. This research presents the Integrated Object-Parameter Schematic Estimation Model in the design development stage that can lead to more accurately estimate the cost through analyzing historical data from the high-storied office buildings. For the development of the proposed model for schematic estimation, after analyzing and classifying the work items from the Bills of Quantities(BOQs) and drawings of historical data, this research proposed the methods of estimating cost in accordance with attributes of each work item using regression analysis. In addition, a case study is performed for the effectiveness as comparing the proposed model with the previous estimating model.

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