• Title/Summary/Keyword: Contingency Analysis

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Statistical analysis and its application of bicycle accidents (자전거 교통사고의 통계분석 및 활용)

  • Hong, Chong-Sun;Kim, Moung-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.1081-1090
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    • 2010
  • Most nations including Korean government make a great endeavor to realize low-carbon and green-growth world. We also work hard to expand bicycle facilities and bicycle road in order to increase bicycle transportation rate. Nowadays number of cyclists is increasing but fortunately, bicycle accidents also increase rapidly. Most data of bicycle accidents published by National Police Agency annually are represented as frequencies in two dimensional contingency tables. In this work, risk rates and characteristics of bicycle accidents are analyzed by using concepts of the probability and conditional probability. Especially with numbers of estimated cyclists and registered cars, risk rates of various kinds of bicycle accidents are obtained. Under the assumption of the conditional independence, probability of bicycle accident occurred at realistic situations could be estimated. Furthermore we discuss to reduce bicycle accidents with these results obtained in this work.

A Study on the Application of Cost Risk Exposure methods by the Probabilistic Evaluation on the Construction Projects (확률적 평가에 의한 건설공사 비용 위험도 측정의 적용성에 관한 연구)

  • Cho Jea-Ho;Chun Jae-Youl
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.1 no.1 s.1
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2000
  • The paper considers two non-deterministic methods of analysing the risk exposure in a cost estimate The fist method(referred to as the 'conventional statistical' method) analyses cost data directly, to describe a probability distribution for total cost. The second method(referred to as the 'Monte Carlo simulation' method) interprets cost data directly, to generate a probability distribution for total costs from the descriptions of elemental cost distribution. The common practice of allowing for risk through an all-embracing contingency sum or percentage addition is challenged. Rather than excluding conventional, non-deterministic methods, they are here presented as possibly the only of effective foundation on which to risk management in cost estimating.

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Variation in seedling growth inhibition due to Maleic Hydrazide treatment of rice(Oryza sativa) and ragi(Eleusine coracana) genotypes and its relationship with yield and adaptability

  • Das, Swarnalata;Sinha, Susil Kumar;Misra, Rama Chandra
    • Journal of Crop Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.215-222
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    • 2008
  • Multilocation trials on 36 rice(Oryza sativa) genotypes of 3 different maturity groups were conducted at four different locations of Orissa for 3 years and 30 ragi(Eleusine coracana) genotypes of 2 different maturity groups were evaluated in three environmental conditions for 3 years. Grain yield data were subjected to stability analysis following linear regression model to estimate adaptability and stability parameters, i.e. b, and $S^2d$ Stability of performance of genotypes was also estimated by two other stability parameters viz., ecovalence W and AMMI stability value ASV. The rice and ragi genotypes of different duration groups showed wide variation in their mean yield, b, $S^2d$, W and ASV parameters. Seeds of the 36 rice and 30 ragi genotypes were treated with 500 and 100 ppm aqueous solution of maleic hydrazide(MH) for 24 hours, respectively to study MH-sensitivity. Sensitivity of genotypes to MH treatment was estimated in terms of seedling growth inhibition index(SGI). The rice and ragi genotypes showed wide differences in their MH-sensitivity in terms of SGI. Relationship of MH-sensitivity of genotypes with their yielding ability, adaptability and stability of performance was tested by contingency $x^2$ test. Low sensitivity of rice and ragi genotypes to MH in terms of SGI appeared to be good indicators of high yielding ability of genotypes. Also, low and high MH-sensitivity of genotypes would be a good indicator of better adaptability to rich and poor environments, respectively, in ragi but not in rice. Low MH-sensitivity of genotypes could be the good indicator of stability of yield performance in rice but not in ragi.

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A study of the need for education and first aid recognition level of Security major students (경호전공 대학생의 응급처치 인식 수준 및 교육 필요성에 관한연구)

  • Kang, Kyoung Soo;Choi, Pan Am
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.220-230
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we investigated the recognition of the first aid of guard major college students are trained to deal well and flexibly to the situation of unforeseen circumstances, you are trying to present the teaching methods and effective importance of first aid. Analysis of data collected in this study is as follows: The results obtained using the statistical program SPSS18.0. First, education has not been done properly, there is no difference between the average score of people who did not receive the people who received the fact of first aid veritable we are specialized in, the second education systematic is needed, training of first aid has not been properly implemented, problems of education there were many. Third, because there is no difference in the level of knowledge by training institutions of first aid, the places where there is training of first aid, there is no effect on the knowledge level. Therefore, it can be the need training first aid practical to enhance the ability to proactively address the situation of contingencies.

A Study on Reinforcement Planning of Transmission Lines for Composite Power System (복합계통의 송전설비 보강계획에 관한 연구)

  • 차준민
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.45-50
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    • 2001
  • Fuzzy theory is used to quantify some subjective criteria and consider uncertain factors for transmission line reinforcement planning in this paper. Sugeno's fuzzy integral is also used in the proposed method, because it can be easily allied to multi attribute decision making problems such as power system planning. To verify the proposed algorithm, some bode-neck lines are searched for the case that the amount of Maximal Load Supplying Capability(MLSC) is small using the results of contingency analysis for Korea Electric Power Corporation(KEPCO)'s 345[kV] transmission line in 1998. And several feasible alternatives are composed for line reinforcement which can dissolve the bottle-neck.

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Evaluation of Risk Factors to Detect Anomaly in Water Supply Networks Based on the PROMETHEE and ANP (상수도관망의 이상징후 판정을 위한 위험요소 평가 - PROMETHEE와 ANP 기법 중심으로)

  • Hong, Sung-Jun;Lee, Yong-Dae;Kim, Sheung-Kown;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.1 s.162
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 2006
  • In this study, we proposed a layout of the integrated decision support system in order to prevent the contamination and to manage risk in water supply networks for safe and smooth water supply. We evaluated the priority of risk factors to detect anomaly in water supply networks using PROMETHEE and ANP techniques, which are applied to various Multi-Criteria Decision Making area in Europe and America. To develop the model, we selected pH, residual chlorine concentration, discharge, hydraulic pressure, electrical conductivity, turbidity, block leakage and water temperature as the key data item. We also chose pipe corrosion, pipe burst and water pollution in pipe as the criteria and then we present the results of PROMETHEE and ANP analysis. The evaluation results of the priority of risk factors in water supply networks will provide basic data to establish a contingency plan for accidents so that we can establish the specific emergency response procedures.

Beyond the clinical walls: registered dietitian nutritionists providing medical nutrition therapy in the home setting

  • Hicks-Roof, Kristen;Xu, Jing;Fults, Amanda K.;Latortue, Krista Yoder
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.789-797
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    • 2021
  • BACKGROUD/OBJECTIVES: Registered dietitian nutritionists (RDN) are providers of medical nutrition therapy (MNT) to address health and chronic disease. Traditionally, RDNs have provided care in healthcare facilities including hospitals and private care facilities. The purpose of this study was to determine how RDN individualized MNT in the home impacted nutrition, physical activity, and food security. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This is a secondary data analysis. The mean age of the participants (n = 1,007) was 51.6 years old with a mean body mass index (BMI) of 34.1 kg/m2. Individualized MNT visits were delivered by an RDN in the home setting from January to December 2019. Participants were referred by healthcare professionals or self-referred. Participants had MNT benefits covered by their health insurance plan (43.3% Medicaid; 39.8% private insurance; 7.9% Medicare, 9% other). Health outcomes related to nutrition care were measured. Outcomes included self-reported consumption of nutrition factors and physical activity. Our secondary outcome focused on food security. The changes in weight, BMI, physical activity, and nutrition factors were analyzed by a linear regression model or linear mixed model, adjusting for age, sex, baseline value, and number of appointments. Food security was summarized in a 2 by 2 contingency table. RESULTS: Baseline values had significantly negative impacts for all changes and number of appointments was significant in the changes for weight and BMI. Increases in physical activity were significant for both female and male participants, 10.4 and 12.6 minutes per day, respectively, while the changes in weight and BMI were not. Regarding dietary factors, the consumption total servings per day of vegetables (0.13) and water (3.35) significantly increased, while the consumption of total servings of whole grain (-0.27), fruit (-0.32), dairy (-0.80) and fish (-0.81) significantly decreased. About 24% (of overall population) and 45% (of Medicaid population) reported improvements in food security. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that home visits were a useful setting for MNT delivered by RDNs. There is a strong need for individualized counseling to meet the participants' needs and personal goals.

A Study on the Revision Process of the National Basic Livelihood Security Act Focusing on Customized Benefits (국민기초생활보장법의 개정과정 연구: 맞춤형급여를 중심으로)

  • Nam, Eun-hee;Park, Yun-yung;Kim, Woo-hyun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.631-640
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study focuses on and explain the policy-determining factors that emerged in the process of revising customized wages for the National Basic Livelihood Security Act on December 30, 2014. This is an analysis of the reasons why the rapid revision of the welfare system could have been made at a certain time in a situation that did not progress despite the specific demand for revision of the law surrounding the blind spot. To this end, using Kingdon's policy flow model, which emphasizes the contingency of policy decisions, the flow of problems, political flows, and policy alternatives were reviewed respectively. In the course of each of these flows, the suicide incident of mother and 2 daughters in Songpa served as a major medium that played a large role in the policy-making process and the window of policy could be opened. As a result, This incident triggered social and policy interest in the issue of the National Basic Livelihood Security Act. It was found that the law was revised quickly, causing a great wave of waves as a social issue.

What Determines Open Innovation in SMEs? An Empirical Study Considering the Strategy-Culture Mixed Typology and Environmental Dynamism (무엇이 중소기업의 개방형 혁신을 결정하는가? 전략-문화 혼합유형과 환경 역동성을 고려한 실증연구)

  • Kwon, Se-In;Yang, Jong-Gon
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.345-353
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the types for open innovation of SMEs considering strategic- culture mixed typology and environmental dynamism. The analysis results of 182 SMEs classified into 4 groups are as follows. First, type PD had a positive effect on innovation performance in both in-bound and out-bound innovation and had improved performance through in-bound innovation in a dynamic technical environment. While DH had no significant effect on both innovations. Second, PH and DD, strategy-culture mismatched types, had a single effect of innovation that affected performance. No moderating effects of environmental dynamism had been shown in types PH, DD, DH. SMEs that aim for open innovation should strive to improve performance by aligning change-oriented strategy with creative and challenging culture.

What Promotes International Sustainable Development of Green Ventures? The Joint Effects of Entrepreneurial Orientation and Home Country-Based Networks

  • Dejin Su;Yeong-Gil Kim
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.39-62
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - Along with the growing awareness of environmental sustainability, international green entrepreneurship is expected to realize international sustainable development (ISD) by introducing ecological innovation results, using fewer resources consumption, and reducing negative environmental impacts. Building upon contingency theory and social network theory, this paper attempts to explore the role of home country-based networks (technology ties and business ties) as contingent factors that might impact the effectiveness of entrepreneurial orientation (EO) in promoting ISD among green ventures. Design/methodology - Original data were collected from 127 green ventures in China based on the random sampling technique. These green ventures mainly focus on the lower use of energy or materials, lower CO2 emissions, and higher ecological benefits located in the Fujian province, which highlights green economic growth and economic cooperation with international markets. Moderated hierarchical linear regression analysis was conducted to test our hypotheses concerning the main relationship between EO (innovativeness, proactiveness, and risk-taking) and ISD as well as the moderating effects of home country-based networks (technology ties and business ties) on the main relationship. Findings - Empirical results indicate that: first, both innovativeness and proactiveness positively affect ISD; second, both technology ties and business ties at home might significantly strengthen the positive relationship between innovativeness (or proactiveness) and ISD. However, this study did not find significant moderating effects of technology ties or business ties at home on the relationship between risk-taking and ISD. Originality/value - Since previous literature often gives more focus on the host country context of social networks, this study shifts to a home country-based network context. Therefore, our research might enrich the international green entrepreneurship literature by empirically investigating the contingent value of home country-based networks in the relationship between EO and ISD in the context of an emerging economy such as China.