• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.17-26
• /
• 2024

The new metro crossing the existing metro will cause the settlement or floating of the existing structures, which will have safety problems for the operation of the existing metro and the construction of the new metro. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor and predict the settlement of the existing metro caused by the construction of the new metro in real time. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of metro settlement, a Gaussian Prior Bayesian Emulator (GPBE) probability prediction model based on Bayesian optimization (BO) is proposed, that is, BO-GPBE. Firstly, the settlement monitoring data are analyzed to get the influence of the new metro on the settlement of the existing metro. Then, five different acquisition functions, that is, expected improvement (EI), expected improvement per second (EIPS), expected improvement per second plus (EIPSP), lower confidence bound (LCB), probability of improvement (PI) are selected to construct BO model, and then BO-GPBE model is established. Finally, three years settlement monitoring data were collected by structural health monitoring (SHM) system installed on Nanjing Metro Line 10 are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of BO-GPBE for forecasting the settlement.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.34-39
• /
• 2013

In this study, the quantitative analysis and pattern analysis of the error bounds with respect to recording period were carried out using the wave climate data from coastal areas. Arbitrary recording periods were randomly sampled from one month to six years using the bootstrap method. Based on the analysis, for recording periods less than one year, it was found that the error bounds decreased rapidly as the recording period increased. Meanwhile, the error bounds were found to decrease more slowly for recording periods longer than one year. Assuming the absolute estimate error to be around 10% (${\pm}0.1m$) for an one meter significant wave height condition, the minimum recording period for reaching the estimate error for Sokcho and Geoje-Hongdo stations satisfied this condition with over two years of data, while Anmado station was found to satisfy this condition when using observational data of over three years. The confidence intervals of the significant wave height clearly show an increasing pattern when the percentile value of the wave height increases. Whereas, the confidence intervals of the mean wave period are nearly constant, at around 0.5 seconds except for the tail regions, i.e., 2.5- and 97.5-percentile values. The error bounds for 97.5-percentile values of the wave height necessary for harbor tranquility analysis were found to be 0.75 m, 0.5 m, and 1.2 m in Sokcho, Geoje-Hongdo, and Anmado, respectively.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• v.7 no.6
• /
• pp.21-30
• /
• 2008

The travel speed collected by the prove-car equipped with the GPS has the problems, which are the data's stability and finding out the representative travel speed, by the influence of the traffic signal and etc. at the interrupted traffic. This study was conducted to develop the method of filtering the outlier data from the data collected by the prove-car. The method to remove the outlier data from the serial data which were collected by the prove-car was adapted to each of the quartile deviation statistics model and the management graphic statistics model. The rate of removing the outlier data by the quartile deviation method was $0{\sim}3.7%$ while the rate by the management graphic statistic methods was $0.3{\sim}7.2%$. Both methods show the low removal rate at the dawn time when the traffic is inactivity, on the other hand the remove rate is high during the daytime. However, both methods have the problem such that the threshold level for removing the outlier data was established at the low bound in the case as good as the statistics model. Therefore, it is required for the experience calibration.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.42 no.6
• /
• pp.457-464
• /
• 2009

This paper proposes methodologies for analyzing the accuracy of the proportional hazards model in predicting consecutive break times of water mains and estimating the time interval for economical water main replacement. By using the survival functions that are based on the proportional hazards models a criterion for the prediction of the consecutive pipe breaks is determined so that the prediction errors are minimized. The criterion to predict pipe break times are determined as the survival probability of 0.70 and only the models for the third through the seventh break are analyzed to be reliable for predicting break times for the case study pipes. Subsequently, the criterion and the estimated lower and upper bound survival functions of consecutive breaks are used in predicting the lower and upper bounds of the 95% confidence interval of future break times of an example water main. Two General Pipe Break Prediction Models(GPBMs) are estimated for an example pipe using the two series of recorded and predicted lower and upper bound break times. The threshold break rate is coupled with the two GPBMs and solved for time to obtain the economical replacement time interval.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.81-88
• /
• 2008

This paper presents the travel demand estimation using interval estimation methods during the trip generation stage, and then followed the other three stages of the four stage trip estimation. We have used real data of Dae-jun City. To estimate travel demand using the interval estimation method, a reliability level was set to 95% by a upper bound value, a middle value and a lower bound value. The four stage traffic demand analysis procedure was equally applied and finally interval traffic was estimated. The result showed a difference between maximum values and middle values depending on the destination during the trip generation stage. It depends on an explanation ability of regression analysis. Most of interval estimation ratio resulted in the traffic assignment stage showed ${\pm}5{\sim}18%$ difference on the average and ${\pm}30{\sim}50%$ at the most.

• Journal of radiological science and technology
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.69-78
• /
• 2009

The cardiovascular disease has been known as a common cause of death for a long time in the west. The eating habits of Asia, including Korea, have changed recently, so that this disease is also a problem in Asia now. Annual Report on the Cause of Death Statistics from 1996 to 2006 reported that the cardiovascular disease would become the number one cause of death in the next $5{\sim}10$ years. Therefore we realize that more accurate examination is required. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of Calcium-scoring CT and the relationship between risk factor and quantitative scores of Calcium-scoring CT. Through this study we expect that the national public health will be improved. Seventy patients with chest pain were chosen at random. The patients were undergone both coronary CT antigraphy and Calcium - scoring CT at G hospital in Incheon from February 1 to June 30, 2008. The result of the Calcium-scoring CT showed its usefulness for Ischemic cardiovascular disease, with an accuracy similar to that of exercise/pharmacologic stress or ECG when it is difficult for a patient to exercise due to joint problems, aging or for other reasons.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.50 no.10
• /
• pp.661-671
• /
• 2017

The objective of this study was to analyze the flood stage considering the uncertainty caused by the river roughness coefficients and discharge. The methodology of this study involved the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) to quantify the uncertainty bounds applying three different storm events. The uncertainty range of the roughness was 0.025~0.040. In case of discharge, the uncertainty stemmed from parameters in stage-discharge rating curve, if h represents stage for discharge Q, which can be written as $Q=A(h-B)^C$. Parameters in rating curve (A, B and C) were estimated by non-linear regression model and assumed by t distribution. The range of parameters in rating curve was 5.138~18.442 for A, -0.524~0.104 for B and 2.427~2.924 for C. By sampling 10,000 parameter sets, Monte Carlo simulations were performed. The simulated stage value was represented by 95% confidence interval. In storm event 1~3, the average bound was 0.39 m, 0.83 m and 0.96 m, respectively. The peak bound was 0.52 m, 1.36 m and 1.75 m, respectively. The recurrence year of each storm event applying the frequency analysis was 1-year, 10-year and 25-year, respectively.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.25-50
• /
• 2005

This study estimates the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for avoiding the destruction of a first-grade ecological area by means of contingent valuation method. Specifically, we employ the dichotomous choice technique along with the follow-up questionnaires. Our analysis implies the yearly WTP per household for avoiding the destruction of the ecological area of 100,000 pyongs is 8,898 won with the 95% confidence interval of 6,611~11,976 won. We estimate the asset value of that area to be 1,707 billion won with the 95% confidence interval of 1,269 to 2,298 billion won. We also decompose the total value of the area into the value of direct (22%) and indirect (38.8%) use, the option value (19.9%) and the conservation value (21.3%). Although using these data for SEEA (the system of integrated environmental economic accounting) is bound by certain restrictions, one could employ our empirical findings as advisory information for decision making in the process of prior environmental review or for assessing the environmental impact.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
• /
• 2008.04a
• /
• pp.647-652
• /
• 2008

This paper focused on the application of finite element model updating technique to evaluate the structural properties of the reinforced concrete specimen using the data collected from shaking table tests. The specimen was subjected to six El Centro(NS, 1942) ground motion histories with different Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA) ranging from 0.06g to 0.50g. For model updating, flexural stiffness values of structural members(walls and slabs) were chosen as the updating parameters so that the converged results have direct physical interpretations. Initial values for finite element model were determined from the member dimensions and material properties. Frequency response functions(i.e. transfer functions), natural frequencies and mode shapes were obtained using the acceleration measurement at each floor and given ground acceleration history. The weighting factors were used to account for the relative confidence in different types of inputs for updating(i.e. transfer function and natural frequencies). The constraints based on upper/lower bound of parameters and sensitivity-based constraints were implemented to the updating procedure in this study using standard bounded variable least-squares(BVLS) method. The veracity of the updated finite element model was investigated by comparing the predicted and measured responses. The results indicated that the updated model replicates the dynamic behavior of the specimens reasonably well. At each stage of shaking, severity of damage that results from cracking of the reinforced concrete member was quantified from the updated parameters(i.e. flexural stiffness values).

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
• /
• v.18 no.7
• /
• pp.725-731
• /
• 2008

This paper focused on the application of finite element model updating technique to evaluate the structural properties of the reinforced concrete specimen using the data collected from shaking table tests. The specimen was subjected to six El Centre (NS, 1942) ground motion histories with different peak ground acceleration (PGA) ranging from 0.06 g to 0.50 g. For model updating, flexural stiffness values of structural members (walls and slabs) were chosen as the updating parameters so that the converged results have direct physical interpretations. Initial values for finite element model were determined from the member dimensions and material properties. Frequency response functions (i.e. transfer functions), natural frequencies and mode shapes were obtained using the acceleration measurement at each floor and given ground acceleration history. The weighting factors were used to account for the relative confidence in different types of Inputs for updating (j.e. transfer function and natural frequencies) The constraints based on upper/lower bound of parameters and sensitivity-based constraints were implemented to the updating procedure in this study using standard bounded variable least-squares(BVLS) method. The veracity of the updated finite element model was investigated by comparing the predicted and measured responses. The results indicated that the updated model replicates the dynamic behavior of the specimens reasonably well. At each stage of shaking, severity of damage that results from cracking of the reinforced concrete member was quantified from the updated parameters (i.e. flexural stiffness values).