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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.6.457

A Statistical Methodology to Estimate the Economical Replacement Time of Water Pipes  

Park, Su-Wan (Dept. of Civil and Env. Eng., Pusan National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.42, no.6, 2009 , pp. 457-464 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper proposes methodologies for analyzing the accuracy of the proportional hazards model in predicting consecutive break times of water mains and estimating the time interval for economical water main replacement. By using the survival functions that are based on the proportional hazards models a criterion for the prediction of the consecutive pipe breaks is determined so that the prediction errors are minimized. The criterion to predict pipe break times are determined as the survival probability of 0.70 and only the models for the third through the seventh break are analyzed to be reliable for predicting break times for the case study pipes. Subsequently, the criterion and the estimated lower and upper bound survival functions of consecutive breaks are used in predicting the lower and upper bounds of the 95% confidence interval of future break times of an example water main. Two General Pipe Break Prediction Models(GPBMs) are estimated for an example pipe using the two series of recorded and predicted lower and upper bound break times. The threshold break rate is coupled with the two GPBMs and solved for time to obtain the economical replacement time interval.
Keywords
Break prediction model; Economical replacement; Pipe break; Prediction error; Proportional hazards model; Survival function; Water main;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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