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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2017.50.10.661

Flood stage analysis considering the uncertainty of roughness coefficients and discharge for Cheongmicheon watershed  

Shin, Sat-Byeol (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University)
Park, Jihoon (Climate Application Department, APEC Climate Center)
Song, Jung-Hun (Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University)
Kang, Moon Seong (Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.50, no.10, 2017 , pp. 661-671 More about this Journal
Abstract
The objective of this study was to analyze the flood stage considering the uncertainty caused by the river roughness coefficients and discharge. The methodology of this study involved the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) to quantify the uncertainty bounds applying three different storm events. The uncertainty range of the roughness was 0.025~0.040. In case of discharge, the uncertainty stemmed from parameters in stage-discharge rating curve, if h represents stage for discharge Q, which can be written as $Q=A(h-B)^C$. Parameters in rating curve (A, B and C) were estimated by non-linear regression model and assumed by t distribution. The range of parameters in rating curve was 5.138~18.442 for A, -0.524~0.104 for B and 2.427~2.924 for C. By sampling 10,000 parameter sets, Monte Carlo simulations were performed. The simulated stage value was represented by 95% confidence interval. In storm event 1~3, the average bound was 0.39 m, 0.83 m and 0.96 m, respectively. The peak bound was 0.52 m, 1.36 m and 1.75 m, respectively. The recurrence year of each storm event applying the frequency analysis was 1-year, 10-year and 25-year, respectively.
Keywords
Flood stage; Roughness coefficients; Stage-discharge curve; Uncertainty; GLUE;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 6  (Citation Analysis)
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