• 대한지리학회지
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.212-232
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• 2011

이 연구의 목적은 이지역 코호트 요인법에 의한 인구 추계 방법론을 정립하고, 그것을 부산광역시의 장래 인구 추계에 적용하는 것이다. 우선 시도와 같은 지역 인구의 추계에 있어 우리나라의 공식적인 방법인 순이동 코호트-요인법이 갖는 한계를 예증하였다. 대안으로 지역간 코호트-요인법 중 전체 지역을 두 지역으로 구분한 후 지역 간의 전입과 전출을 분리하여 추계하는 이지역 코호트-요인법을 정립하였다. 이를 바탕으로 부산광역시의 2005~2030년에 대한 인구 추계를 3가지 시나리오 하에서 실행하였다. 순이동 방식을 취한 인구 추계와 이지역 방식을 취한 인구 추계 간에는 상당한 차이가 나타났는데, 전출 초과 지역인 부산의 경우 순이동 방식에서 더 빠른 인구 감소가 나타났다. 이지역 방식에 의한 부산 및 전국추계의 인구 변화 추세를 검토한 결과 추계가 상당히 합리적으로 이루어짐을 확인할 수 있었다. 결론적으로 본 연구에서 제시된 이지역 코호트-요인법은 순이동 코호트-요인법에 비해 논리적으로 더 정연하면서도 실제 추계에 있어서도 높은 유용성을 보여 주었다.

• 음성과학
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.135-146
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• 2002

Generally a speaker verification system improves its system recognition ratio by regularizing log likelihood ratio, using a speaker model and its background speaker model that are required to be verified. The speaker-based cohort method is one of the methods that are widely used for selecting background speaker model. Recently, Gaussian-based cohort model has been suggested as a virtually synthesized cohort model, and unlike a speaker-based model, this is the method that chooses only the probability distributions close to basic speaker's probability distribution among the several neighboring speakers' probability distributions and thereby synthesizes a new virtual speaker model. It shows more excellent results than the existing speaker-based method. This study compared the existing speaker-based background speaker models and virtual speaker models and then constructed new virtual background speaker model groups which combined them in a certain ratio. For this, this study constructed a speaker verification system that uses GMM (Gaussin Mixture Model), and found that the suggested method of selecting virtual background speaker model shows more improved performance.

• 한국음향학회지
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.383-387
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• 2003

본 논문에서는 기존의 고정크기의 코호트 집단을 기반으로 한 화자검증 방법을 다룬다. 특히, 본 논문에서는 고정크기의 코호트 대신에 화자모델들 사이의 거리를 이용하는 가변크기의 새로운 코호트를 제안한다: 제안된 새로운 방식에서는 각 화자로부터 일정한 거리 내에 있는 주변 화자모델들의 밀집도가 고려된다. 그 화자주변의 밀집도가 높으면 코호트의 크기가 자동적으로 증가되어 화자검증률이 개선되고, 반면 밀집도가 적으면 코호트의 크기가 감소되어 계산량이 줄어든다 실험결과 제안된 방법이 기존의 방식에 비하여 EER (Equal Error Rate)을 감소시킴을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.703-719
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• 2015

본 논문은 평균회귀 2요인 사망률 모형에 코호트 효과를 반영한 개선된 확률론적 사망률 모형을 제시한다. 한국 남자의 사망률 자료를 바탕으로 가중평균최소제곱법과 메트로폴리스 알고리듬을 이용하여 사망률 모형을 추정한 결과 코호트 효과를 반영하는 것이 모형 적합도를 향상시킴을 발견하였다. 국민연금공단과 같은 연금사업자가 자신의 장수위험을 금융시장에 순차적으로 전가하는 수단으로서 옵션방식 이자지급 장수채권의 활용을 제안하고 발행채권의 가격 산출방법을 제시하는 것이 본 논문이 기여하는 점이다. 특히 생존지수에 의해 이자지급 현금흐름이 결정되는 장수채권 가격산출을 위하여 코호트 효과가 매우 중요한 요소임을 강조하였다.

• 농촌계획
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.39-42
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to develop rural population model adapting cohort survival method with sift-share effects. Administrative district in this study is below Myun: about 2,000 population. Population data of rural area in 1990, 1995, and 2000 by age cohort were selected for applying developed model. Damping coefficient from population data was calculated as 7% and results applying this coefficient in rural population data below the error from 12% to 1.06%. In detail, most of cohorts fitted with developed model except from 15 to 29 age groups. Application result of small population area; DaesulMyun revealed that main factor of population change is not natural change but migration.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.378-391
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• 2018

Background: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. Methods: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. Results: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show 'healthy ageing' phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of -1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%-1.80% in healthcare expenditure. Conclusion: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, 'healthy ageing effect' suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.

• 의학교육논단
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.109-113
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• 2023

An educational outcome cohort has been established at Keimyung University School of Medicine to help make educational policy decisions and improve educational programs based on data. The purpose of the educational outcome cohort is to support educational policy decisions for achieving graduation outcomes smoothly and to accomplish the intended human resources development of the university through objective analyses and regular monitoring, providing continuous feedback. The data collected for the educational outcome cohort include the student identifications of freshmen, entrance exam scores, premedical and medical school grades, titles and forms of student academic research, the results of psychological testing, scholarship recipient lists, volunteer clubs, and so forth. The data are collected using an information utilization agreement approved by the Institutional Review Board, and the collected data are encrypted and stored on a dedicated computer for enhanced personal information security. Proposals to access and utilize the educational outcome cohort data must be discussed and approved by the Educational Outcome Cohort Committee, which decides on the scope and method of utilization. The collected and managed educational outcome cohort data have been used to develop comparative programs to improve students' competency and to support admission policy decisions through an analysis of the characteristics and performance of medical school students. The establishment and utilization of the educational outcome cohort will play an important role in determining the School of Medicine's educational policies and suggesting new directions for educational policies in the future.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한예방의학회 2003년도 제11회 춘계 심포지움 연제집
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• pp.30-37
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• 2003

o Cohort study became the major approach to study of chronic diseases such as CVD and cancer o Cohort can be population-based or volunteer-based o Types of be population-be categorized by source population and selection mechanism o More and more cohort studies involve biological specimens, such as blood, urine, toenail, cheek cells, etc. o Multi-center and multi-national collaboration is an effective way to increase sample size. o Current statistical method typically use time-to-event analysis by Cox proportional hazard model.

• 한국음향학회지
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.360-366
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• 2003

다층신경망 (multilayer perceptron)이 다른 패턴인식 방법에 비해 여러 가지 이점을 제공하지만 다층신경망에 기반한 화자증명 시스템은 낮은 증명오류를 달성하기 위한 대규모 배경화자로 인한 느린 등록속도의 문제를 안는다. 이 문제를 해결하기 위해 QnDCS(quantitative discriminative cohort speakers) 방법에서 화자군집 방법을 다층신경망 기반화자증명 시스템에 도입하여 화자등록에 필요한 배경화자의 수를 줄이려는 시도가 있었다. QnDCS 방법이 목적을 어느 정도 달성하긴 했지만 등록속도의 향상률이 만족할만한 수준이지 못했다. 본 논문에서는 보다 높은 등록속도 향상률을 달성하기 위한 방법으로서, 선택되는 배경화자의 수를 더욱 낮추는 정질에 기반한 기준을 도입한 QlDCS (qualitative discriminative cohort speakers) 방법을 제안한다. 두 방법에 대한 성능평가를 위해 다층신경망과 지속음에 기반한 화자증명 시스템과 음성 데이터베이스를 사용한 실험을 실시한다 그 결과 제안한 방법이 QlDCS에 비해 온라인 방식의 EBP (error backpropagation)에 대한 학습속도 향상률 면에서 2배 이상 더 짧은 시간 내에 화자를 등록하는 것으로 나타나 보다 높은 효율을 지녔음을 증명한다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.95-101
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• 2007

Focusing on complex diseases of public health significance, strategic issues regarding the on-going Korean Genome Cohort were reviewed: target size and diseases, measurements, study design issues, and follow-up strategy of the cohort. Considering the epidemiologic characteristics of Korean population as well as strengths and drawbacks of current research environment, we tried to tailor the experience of other existing cohorts into proposals for this Korean study. Currently 100,000 individuals have been participating the new Genome Cohort in Korea. Target size of de novo collection is recommended to be set as between 300,000 to 500,000. This target size would allow acceptable power to detect genetic and environmental factors of moderate effect size and possible interactions between them. Family units and/or special subgroups are recommended to parallel main body of adult individuals to increase the overall efficiency of the study. Given that response rate to the conventional re-contact method may not be satisfactory, successful follow-up is the main key to the achievement of the Korean Genome Cohort. Access to the central database such as National Health Insurance data can provide enormous potential for near-complete case detection. Efforts to build consensus amongst scientists from broad fields and stakeholders are crucial to unleash the centralized database as well as to refine the commitment of this national project.