• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.212-232
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• 2011

The main objective of this study is to establish a population projection method based on the biregional cohort-component method and to apply it to population projections for Busan. Some drawbacks of using the net migration cohort-component method in a regional or local level population projection are demonstrated. A biregional cohort-component method, a variant of the interregional cohort-component method, is established as an alternative where in-migration and out-migration are separately considered and then are combined to produce a projection for the migration component. Predicated on the established method, population projections for Busan are undertaken for the period of 2005~2030 under three different scenarios. Considerably different projection results are obtained between the net migration and biregional methods; among others, the trend of population decline is more severe in the former than in the latter. An investigation of the temporal trend of the projected population shows that the proposed method is highly reasonable. In conclusion, the proposed method based on the biregional cohort-component method seems not only to be theoretically more robust than the net migration cohort-component method but also to be very effective in the real world application.

• Speech Sciences
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.135-146
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• 2002

Generally a speaker verification system improves its system recognition ratio by regularizing log likelihood ratio, using a speaker model and its background speaker model that are required to be verified. The speaker-based cohort method is one of the methods that are widely used for selecting background speaker model. Recently, Gaussian-based cohort model has been suggested as a virtually synthesized cohort model, and unlike a speaker-based model, this is the method that chooses only the probability distributions close to basic speaker's probability distribution among the several neighboring speakers' probability distributions and thereby synthesizes a new virtual speaker model. It shows more excellent results than the existing speaker-based method. This study compared the existing speaker-based background speaker models and virtual speaker models and then constructed new virtual background speaker model groups which combined them in a certain ratio. For this, this study constructed a speaker verification system that uses GMM (Gaussin Mixture Model), and found that the suggested method of selecting virtual background speaker model shows more improved performance.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.383-387
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• 2003

This paper deals with the method of speaker verification based on the conventional cohort of fixed size. In particular, a new cohort of variable size, which makes use of the distance between speaker models, is proposed: The density of neighboring speaker models within the fixed distance from each speaker is taken into account in the proposed method. The high density leads to the increase of cohort size, thus improving the speaker verification rate. On the other hand, the low density leads to its decrease, thus reducing the amount of computations. The simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms the conventional one, achieving a reduction in the EER.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.703-719
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• 2015

We propose an extension of the Lee and Jho (2015) mean reverting the two factor mortality model by incorporating a period-specific cohort effect. We found that the consideration of cohort effect improves the mortality fit of Korea male data above age 65. Parameters are estimated by the weighted least squares method and Metropolis algorithm. We also emphasize that the cohort effect is necessary to choose the base survival index to calculate longevity bond issue price. A key contribution of the article is the proposal and development of a method to calculate the longevity bond price to hedge the longevity risk exposed to Korea National Pension Services.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.12 no.3 s.32
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• pp.39-42
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to develop rural population model adapting cohort survival method with sift-share effects. Administrative district in this study is below Myun: about 2,000 population. Population data of rural area in 1990, 1995, and 2000 by age cohort were selected for applying developed model. Damping coefficient from population data was calculated as 7% and results applying this coefficient in rural population data below the error from 12% to 1.06%. In detail, most of cohorts fitted with developed model except from 15 to 29 age groups. Application result of small population area; DaesulMyun revealed that main factor of population change is not natural change but migration.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.378-391
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• 2018

Background: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. Methods: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. Results: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show 'healthy ageing' phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of -1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%-1.80% in healthcare expenditure. Conclusion: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, 'healthy ageing effect' suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.

• Korean Medical Education Review
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.109-113
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• 2023

An educational outcome cohort has been established at Keimyung University School of Medicine to help make educational policy decisions and improve educational programs based on data. The purpose of the educational outcome cohort is to support educational policy decisions for achieving graduation outcomes smoothly and to accomplish the intended human resources development of the university through objective analyses and regular monitoring, providing continuous feedback. The data collected for the educational outcome cohort include the student identifications of freshmen, entrance exam scores, premedical and medical school grades, titles and forms of student academic research, the results of psychological testing, scholarship recipient lists, volunteer clubs, and so forth. The data are collected using an information utilization agreement approved by the Institutional Review Board, and the collected data are encrypted and stored on a dedicated computer for enhanced personal information security. Proposals to access and utilize the educational outcome cohort data must be discussed and approved by the Educational Outcome Cohort Committee, which decides on the scope and method of utilization. The collected and managed educational outcome cohort data have been used to develop comparative programs to improve students' competency and to support admission policy decisions through an analysis of the characteristics and performance of medical school students. The establishment and utilization of the educational outcome cohort will play an important role in determining the School of Medicine's educational policies and suggesting new directions for educational policies in the future.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.30-37
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• 2003

o Cohort study became the major approach to study of chronic diseases such as CVD and cancer o Cohort can be population-based or volunteer-based o Types of be population-be categorized by source population and selection mechanism o More and more cohort studies involve biological specimens, such as blood, urine, toenail, cheek cells, etc. o Multi-center and multi-national collaboration is an effective way to increase sample size. o Current statistical method typically use time-to-event analysis by Cox proportional hazard model.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.360-366
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• 2003

Although multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) present several advantages against other pattern recognition methods, MLP-based speaker verification systems suffer from slow enrollment speed caused by many background speakers to achieve a low verification error. To solve this problem, the quantitative discriminative cohort speakers (QnDCS) method, by introducing the cohort speakers method into the systems, reduced the number of background speakers required to enroll speakers. Although the QnDCS achieved the goal to some extent, the improvement rate for the enrolling speed was still unsatisfactory. To improve the enrolling speed, this paper proposes the qualitative DCS (QlDCS) by introducing a qualitative criterion to select less background speakers. An experiment for both methods is conducted to use the speaker verification system based on MLPs and continuants, and speech database. The results of the experiment show that the proposed QlDCS method enrolls speakers in two times shorter time than the QnDCS does over the online error backpropagation(EBP) method.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.95-101
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• 2007

Focusing on complex diseases of public health significance, strategic issues regarding the on-going Korean Genome Cohort were reviewed: target size and diseases, measurements, study design issues, and follow-up strategy of the cohort. Considering the epidemiologic characteristics of Korean population as well as strengths and drawbacks of current research environment, we tried to tailor the experience of other existing cohorts into proposals for this Korean study. Currently 100,000 individuals have been participating the new Genome Cohort in Korea. Target size of de novo collection is recommended to be set as between 300,000 to 500,000. This target size would allow acceptable power to detect genetic and environmental factors of moderate effect size and possible interactions between them. Family units and/or special subgroups are recommended to parallel main body of adult individuals to increase the overall efficiency of the study. Given that response rate to the conventional re-contact method may not be satisfactory, successful follow-up is the main key to the achievement of the Korean Genome Cohort. Access to the central database such as National Health Insurance data can provide enormous potential for near-complete case detection. Efforts to build consensus amongst scientists from broad fields and stakeholders are crucial to unleash the centralized database as well as to refine the commitment of this national project.