• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.133-142
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• 2018

Climate change will affect not only the crop productivity but also the pattern of rice disease epidemics in Korea. Impact assessments for the climate change are conducted using various climate change scenarios from many global climate models (GCM), such as a scenario from a best GCM or scenarios from multiple GCMs, or a combination of both. Here, we evaluated the feasibility of using a climate change scenario from the best GCM for the impact assessment on the potential epidemics of a rice leaf blast disease in Korea, in comparison to a multi?model ensemble (MME) scenario from multiple GCMs. For this, this study involves analyses of disease simulation using an epidemiological model, EPIRICE?LB, which was validated for Korean rice paddy fields. We then assessed likely changes in disease epidemics using the best GCM selected for individual agro?climatic zones and MME scenarios constructed by running 11 GCMs. As a result, the simulated incidence of leaf blast epidemics gradually decreased over the future periods both from the best GCM and MME. The results from this study emphasized that the best GCM selection approach resulted in comparable performance to the MME approach for the climate change impact assessment on rice leaf blast epidemic in Korea.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2023

Climate change and invasive alien plant species (IAPs) are having a significant impact on mountain ecosystems. The combination of climate change and socio-economic development is exacerbating the invasion of IAPs, which are a major threat to biodiversity loss and ecosystem functioning. Species distribution modelling has become an important tool in predicting the invasion or suitability probability under climate change based on occurrence data and environmental variables. MaxEnt modelling was applied to predict the current suitable distribution of most noxious weed A. adenophora (Spreng) R. King and H. Robinson and analysed the changes in distribution with the use of current (year 2000) environmental variables and future (year 2050) climatic scenarios consisting of 3 representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Bhutan. Species occurrence data was collected from the region of interest along the road side using GPS handset. The model performance of both current and future climatic scenario was moderate in performance with mean temperature of wettest quarter being the most important variable that contributed in model fit. The study shows that current climatic condition favours the A. adenophora for its invasion and RCP 2.6 climatic scenario would promote aggression of invasion as compared to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climatic scenarios. This can lead to characterization of the species as preferring moderate change in climatic conditions to be invasive, while extreme conditions can inhibit its invasiveness. This study can serve as reference point for the conservation and management strategies in control of this species and further research.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.75-84
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes in a rural small watershed. HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A2 scenario and LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator) were used to generate future climatic data. Future land use data were also generated by the CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov) method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate hydrologic impacts. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with stream flow measured at the Baran watershed in Korea. The SWAT model simulation results agreed well with observed values during the calibration and validation periods. In this study, hydrologic impacts were analyzed according to three scenarios: future climate change (Scenario I), future land use change (Scenario II), and both future climate and land use changes (Scenario III). For Scenario I, the comparison results between a 30-year baseline period (1997~2004) and a future 30-year period (2011~2040) indicated that the total runoff, surface runoff, lateral subsurface runoff, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration increased as precipitation and temperature for the future 30-year period increased. The monthly variation analysis results showed that the monthly runoff for all months except September increased compared to the baseline period. For Scenario II, both the total and surface runoff increased as the built-up area, including the impervious surface, increased, while the groundwater discharge and evapotranspiration decreased. The monthly variation analysis results indicated that the total runoff increased in the summer season, when the precipitation was concentrated. In Scenario III, the results showed a similar trend to that of Scenario II. The monthly runoff for all months except October increased compared to the baseline period.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.383-391
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• 2015

As occurrence of gradually increasing extreme temperature events in Jeju Island, a hybrid downscaling technique that simultaneously applies by dynamical method and statistical method has implemented on design rainfall in order to reduce flood damages from severe storms and typhoons.As a result of computation, Case 1 shows a strong tendency to excessively compute rainfall, which is continuously increasing. While Case 2 showed similar trend as Case 1, low design rainfall has computed by rainfall in A1B scenario. Based on the design rainfall computation method mainly used in Preventive Disaster System through Pre-disaster Effect Examination System and Basic Plan for River of Jeju Island which are considering climatic change for selecting 50-year and 100-year frequencies. Case 3 selecting for Jeju rain gage station and Case 1 for Seogwipo rain gage station. The results were different for each rain gage station because of difference in rainfall characteristics according to recent climatic change, and the risk of currently known design rainfall can be increased in near future.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.72-82
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• 2014

본 연구는 환경인자를 이용하여 우리나라에 생태권역별로 분포하는 중부지방소나무의 지위지수 추정식을 개발하고 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 적지면적 및 적지분포를 추정하기 위해 수행하였다. 이를 위해 산림입지도와 전자기후도 및 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 사용하여 산림생산력에 영향을 미칠것으로 판단되는 19개의 기후변수를 포함한 총 48개 환경인자를 도출한 후, 최적 조합에 의해 지위지수 추정식을 개발하였다. 최종 생태권역별 중부지방소나무의 지위지수 추정식에는 각각 5~7개의 환경인자가 독립변수로 사용되었고, 지위지수 추정식의 설명력을 나타내는 결정계수는 0.32~0.46의 범위에 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 이 추정식은 모형의 평균편의, 정도, 표준오차의 3가지 평가통계량에 근거하여 검증을 실시한 결과 비교적 지위 추정능력이 높은 것으로 판명되었다. 또한 본 연구에서는 생태권역별 중부지방소나무의 지위지수 추정식과 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 연계하여 시간 경과에 따른 중부지방소나무의 연도별 적지면적 및 적지분포의 변화를 추정하였다.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.284-301
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• 2023

본 연구에서는 1km 고해상도 앙상블 신기후변화 시나리오(공통사회 경제경로 시나리오) 자료를 기반으로 하여 남한을 포함한 한반도 전체의 벼 기후생산성(CYP) 변화를 평가하였다. 이때, 기후변화 시나리오자료에서 제공하는 제한적인 변수를 활용하기 위해 일조시간을 대신하여 일사량을 이용하였다. 연구 결과에 따르면, 현재 기후에 비해 온난화된 미래 기후조건에서 CYPmax 값은 감소하고 최적출수일은 점차 늦춰지는 경향이 나타났다. 이는 고도가 높은 한반도 북동부의 산악 지역을 제외하고 모든 지역에서 나타나는 현상이며, 특히 온난화가 빠르게 진행되는 SSP585시나리오 일수록 더욱 뚜렷하게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 낮은 배출 시나리오의 이점을 보여주는 동시에 온실 가스 배출을 제한하기 위해 더 많은 노력을 기울일 필요가 있음을 강조한다. 한편, CYPmax의 시계열에서 넓은 폭의 앙상블 스프레드가 나타났는데, 이는 단일모형 혹은 작은 수의 모형을 선택하였을 때 미래 변화 분석에 내재된 불확실성을 보여주며 앙상블 예측의 중요성을 보여준다. 본 연구를 통해 분석된 장기간의 기온 및 일사 조건의 변화에 따른 기후학적 벼 생산성 변화 및 불확실성에 대한 분석은 기후변화 대응을 위한 기초정보로써 가치가 있다.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.427-437
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• 2019

Background: Climate change is believed to be continuously affecting ticks by influencing their habitat suitability. However, we attempted to model the climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus distribution considering the major environmental factors that would influence the tick. Therefore, 50 tick occuance points were taken to model the potential distribution using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) software and 19 climatic variables, taking into account the ability for future climatic change under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were used. Results: MaxEnt model performance was tested and found with the AUC value of 0.99 which indicates excellent goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. Current models predict increased temperatures, both in the mid and end terms together with possible changes of other climatic factors like precipitation which may lead to higher tick-borne disease risks associated with expansion of the range of the targeted tick distribution. Distribution maps were constructed for the current, 2050, and 2070 for the two greenhouse gas scenarios and the most dramatic scenario; RCP 8.5 produced the highest increase probable distribution range. Conclusions: The future potential distribution of the genus Rhipicephalus show potential expansion to the new areas due to the future climatic suitability increase. These results indicate that the genus population of the targeted tick could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking; increased incidence of tick-borne diseases poses further risk which can affect cattle production and productivity, thereby affecting the livelihood of smallholding farmers. Therefore, it is recommended to implement climate change adaptation practices to minimize the impacts.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제103권4호
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• pp.605-612
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• 2014

본 논문은 환경인자를 이용하여 우리나라에 생태권역별로 분포하는 신갈나무의 지위지수 추정식을 개발하고, 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 적지면적 및 적지분포의 연도별 변화를 추정하기 위해 수행하였다. 이를 위해 산림입지도와 전자기후도 및 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 사용하여 산림생산력에 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단되는 19개의 기후변수를 포함한 총 48개 환경인자를 도출한 후, 최적 조합에 의해 신갈나무의 생태권역별 지위지수 추정식을 개발하였다. 최종 생태권역별 신갈나무의 지위지수 추정식에는 각각 4~6개의 환경인자가 독립변수로 사용되었고, 지위지수 추정식의 설명력을 나타내는 결정계수는 0.36~0.49의 범위에 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 이 추정식은 모형의 평균편의, 정도, 표준오차의 3가지 평가통계량에 근거하여 검증을 실시한 결과 비교적 지위 추정능력이 높은 것으로 판명되었다. 또한 본 연구에서는 생태권역별 신갈나무의 지위지수 추정식과 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 연계하여 시간 경과에 따른 신갈나무의 연도별 적지면적 및 적지분포의 변화를 2020년부터 2100년까지 10년 단위로 추정하였다. 그 결과 시간이 경과함에 따라 신갈나무의 적지면적은 감소하는 것으로 나타났으며, 극한 기후변화 시나리오인 RCP 8.5를 적용할 경우 RCP 4.5에 비해 적지의 감소 폭이 훨씬 더 큰 것으로 예측되었다. 본 연구에서 얻어진 결과는 적지적수와 관련된 산림정책 수립에 유용한 정보로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국응용곤충학회지
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• 제52권4호
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• pp.427-430
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• 2013

최근 WMO는 온실가스 배출량 시나리오(SRES)를 대신하여 대표농도경로(RCP)를 바탕으로 새로운 기후변화 시나리오를 생산하였으며 기상연구소는 RCP 시나리오를 바탕으로 한반도의 새로운 기후변화 시나리오를 생산하였다. 본 연구에서는 과거 관측값을 바탕으로 평년(1981-2010)의 애멸구의 우화시기와 세대수를 추정하였으며, RCP 8.5 시나리오를 바탕으로 2020년대(2015-2024), 2050년대(2045-2054)와 2090년대(2085-2094) 애멸구의 우화시기와 세대수를 예측하였다. 평년 애멸구 월동 1세대수의 우화일인 $176.0{\pm}0.97$일과 비교하여 2050년대에서는 $13.2{\pm}0.18$일($162.8{\pm}0.91$일), 2090년대에는 $32.1{\pm}0.61$일($143.9{\pm}1.08$일) 앞당겨질 것을 예측되었다. 그리고 애멸구의 연간 세대수는 2050년대에서는 현재보다 $2.0{\pm}0.02$세대, 2090년대에는 $5.2{\pm}0.06$세대 증가할 것으로 예측되었다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.223-234
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• 2018

Estimation of future land cover based on climate change scenarios is an important factor in climate change impact assessment and adaptation policy. This study estimated future land cover considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) using Scenario Generators. Based on the storylines of SSP1-3, future population and estimated urban area were adopted for the transition matrix, which contains land cover change trends of each land cover class. In addition, limits of land cover change and proximity were applied as spatial data. According to the estimated land cover maps from SSP1-3 in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, urban areas near a road were expanded, but agricultural areas and forests were gradually decreased. More drastic urban expansion was seen in SSP3 compared to SSP1 and SSP2. These trends are similar with previous research with regard to storyline, but the spatial results were different. Future land cover can be easily adjusted based on this approach, if econometric forecasts for each land cover class added. However, this requires determination of econometric forecasts for each land cover class.