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http://dx.doi.org/10.5656/KSAE.2013.11.0.081

Prediction of Adult Emergence Time and Generation Number of Overwintered Small Brown Planthopper, Laodelphax striatellus According to RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenario  

Jung, Myung-Pyo (Climate change & Agroecology Division, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Park, Hong-Hyun (Crop Protection Division, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Lee, Sang-Guei (Crop Protection Division, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Kim, Kwang-Ho (Crop Protection Division, National Academy of Agricultural Science)
Publication Information
Korean journal of applied entomology / v.52, no.4, 2013 , pp. 427-430 More about this Journal
Abstract
Recently, climate change scenarios were substituted by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). Using the RCP scenario, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) produced new climate change scenarios. Further, the National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) of Korea produced new climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula. In this study, emergence time of small brown planthopper (SBPH), Laodelphax striatellus and the number of generations a year were estimated during climatic normal year (1981-2010) with previous studies and they were predicted during 2050s (2045-2054) and 2090s (2085-2094) by means of RCP8.5 climate change scenario. In comparison with $176.0{\pm}0.97$ Julian data in the climatic normal year, the emergence time of overwintering SBPH was predicted to be $13.2{\pm}0.18$ days ($162.8{\pm}0.91$ Julian date) earlier in 2050s and $32.1{\pm}0.61$ days ($143.9{\pm}1.08$ Julian date) earlier in 2090s. The SBPH was expected to produce an additional $2.0{\pm}0.02$ generations in 2050s and $5.2{\pm}0.06$ generations in 2090s.
Keywords
Climate change scenario; Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP); Laodelphax striatellus; Emergence time; Number of generation;
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