Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2014.16.1.72

Predicting the Changes of Yearly Productive Area Distribution for Pinus densiflora in Korea Based on Climate Change Scenarios  

Ko, Sung Yoon (Department of Forest, Environment, and System, Kookmin University)
Sung, Joo Han (Division of Forest Ecology, Korea Forest Research Institute)
Chun, Jung Hwa (Division of Forest Ecology, Korea Forest Research Institute)
Lee, Young Geun (Division of Forest Ecology, Korea Forest Research Institute)
Shin, Man Yong (Department of Forest, Environment, and System, Kookmin University)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology / v.16, no.1, 2014 , pp. 72-82 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study was conducted to predict the changes of yearly productive area distribution for pinus densiflora under climate change scenario. For this, site index equations by ecoprovinces were first developed using environmental factors. Using the large data set from both a digital forest site map and a climatic map, a total of 48 environmental factors including 19 climatic variables were regressed on site index to develop site index equations. Two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were then applied to the developed site index equations and the distribution of productive areas for pinus densiflora were predicted from 2020 to 2100 years in 10-year intervals. The results from this study show that the distribution of productive areas for pinus densiflora generally decreases as time passes. It was also found that the productive area distribution of Pinus densiflora is different over time under two climate change scenarios. The RCP 8.5 which is more extreme climate change scenario showed much more decreased distribution of productive areas than the RCP 4.5. It is expected that the study results on the amount and distribution of productive areas over time for pinus densiflora under climate change scenarios could provide valuable information necessary for the policies of suitable species on a site.
Keywords
Climatic change scenario; Digital site map; Climatic map; Site index equation; Productive area;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Judge, G. G., R. C. Hill, W. E. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. C. Lee, 1988: Introduction to the theory and practice of econometrics. John Wiley & sons. New York. 1024pp.
2 Kang, Y. H., J. H. Jeong, Y. G. Kim, and W. G. Lee, 1996: Mapping of the reighteous tree selection for a given site by using of digital terrain analysis on a northern temperate forest. Journal of Forest Science 54, 94-103.
3 Kang, Y. H., J. H. Jeong, Y. G. Kim, and J. W. Park, 1997: Mapping of the reighteous tree selection for a given site by using of digital terrain analysis on a central temperate forest. Journal of Korean Forest Society 86(2), 241-250.
4 Kim, D. H., E. G. Kim, S. B. Park, H. G. Kim, and H. H. Kim, 2012: Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on the Site Index of Larix leptolepis. Journal of Korean Forest Society 101(1), 53-61.
5 Korea Forest Research Institute, 2011: Development of site index equations and estimation of productive areas for main species based on environmental and climatic factors. 71pp. (in Koran)
6 Korea Forest Research Institute, 2012: Development of site index equations for main tree species by ecoprovince classification based on environmental and climatic factors. 101pp. (in Koran)
7 Myers, R. H., 1986: Classical and modern regression with applications. Duxbury Press. 395pp.
8 Albert, M., and M. Schmidt, 2010: Climate-sensitive modelling of site-productivity relationships for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). Forest Ecology and Management 259, 739-749.   DOI   ScienceOn
9 Nakawatase, J. M., and D. L. Peterson, 2006: Spatial variability in forest growth-climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36(1), 77-91.   DOI
10 Shin, M. Y., 1990: The use of ridge regression for yield prediction models with multicolinearity. Journal of Korean Forest Society 79(3), 260-268.
11 Shin, M. Y., J. W. Yun, and D. S. Cha, 1996: Local correction of tree volume equation for Larix Ieptolepis by ratio-ofmeans estimator. Journal of Korean Forest Society 85(1), 56-65.
12 Shin, J. W., and C. M. Kim, 1996: The ecosystem classification in Korea(I): Ecoprovince classification. Journal of Forest Sciecne 54, 188-189. (in Korean with English abstract)
13 Snee, R. D., 1977: Validation of regression models : Methods and example. Technometrics 19, 415-428.   DOI   ScienceOn
14 Son, Y. M., K. H. Lee, S. D. Kwon, and W. K. Lee, 2003: Evaluation and Prediction system of tree resources. Report of Forest Research 04-01, 49-52.
15 Tyler, A. L., D. C. Macmillan, and J. Dutch, 1996: Models to predict the General Yield Class of Douglas-Fir, Japanese larch and Scots pine on better quality land in Scotland. Forestry 1, 13-24.
16 Kabrick, J. M., S. R. Shifley, R. G. Jensen, Z. Fan, and D. R. Larsen, 2004: Factors associated with oak mortality in Missouri Ozak forest. USDA Forest Service General Technical Reports NE-316, 27-35.
17 Corona, P., R. Scotti, and M. H. Kutner, 1998: Relationship between environmental factors and site index in Douglas-Fir plantation in central Italy. Forest Ecology and Management 110, 195-207.   DOI   ScienceOn
18 Belsley, D. A., E. Kuh, and R. E. Welsch, 1980: Regression diagnostics. John Wiley & Sons. New York. 292pp.
19 Arbatzis, A. A., and H. E. Burkhart, 1992: An evaluation of sampling methods and model forms for estimating height-diameter relationships in loblolly pine plantation. Forest Science 38(1), 192-198.
20 Bae, B. H. and H. J. Lee, 1999: Phytosociological studies for vegetation conservation of pine forest. Journal of Ecology and Field Biology 22(1), 21-29.
21 Choi, S. H., W. K. Lee, S. J. Yoo, S. M. Park, J. K. Byun, and G. S. Choi, 2009: Prediction of the change of tree distribution and above-ground carbon distribution by climate change. Proceeding of the 2009 Fall Joint Meeting of Geographic Information System. 138-139. (in Korean with English abstract)
22 Curt, T., M. Bouchaud, and G. Agrech, 2001: Predicting site index of Douglas-Fir plantations from ecological variables in the Massif Central area of France. Forest Ecology and Management 149, 61-74.   DOI   ScienceOn