• 제목/요약/키워드: Causal loop diagram

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시스템 시뮬레이션을 통한 기술과 사회 공진화의 동태성 고찰 (A System Simulation for Investigation of IT and Society Co-evolution Dynamics and Its Policy Implications)

  • 김상욱;정재림
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.171-197
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    • 2008
  • By applying Systems Simulation technique, this paper aims to investigates the dynamics underlying the coevolution of IT(information technology) and the society. Particularly, a series of basic questions are explored to answer by developing a simulation model for the mechanisms underlying the 'hype curve' ever occurring in the course of technology diffusion into society: First, why hype curve appears in the process of technology and society coevolution. Second, how to enhance the tapering level at the final stage of coevolution. Third, what are the key policy leverages and when is the right time for the policy intervention. As now, inflated expectations regarding ubiquitous information technology (u-IT) are growing very fast and higher than those for the previous technologies, which would result in overshoot followed by collapse of visibility and thus incur tremendous amount of social costs. In this regard implications drawn from this study perhaps give some insights not necessarily to the academics but also to the practitioners and policy makers facing the advent of u-IT as a new emerging horizon of information society.

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스마트시티 조성을 위한 비전 및 주요전략 도출 (Derivation of a Vision and Major Strategies for Developing the Smart City)

  • 현창택;왕지환;김승권
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.64-75
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    • 2021
  • 전 세계적으로 급속한 도시화로 인하여 각종 사회문제와 부작용 등이 발생하고 있다. 이에 따라 시민의 삶의 질을 향상시키고 지속가능한 도시개발을 위하여 스마트시티 조성이 추진되고 있다. 국내에서도 각 부처별로 스마트시티 조성을 위한 비전 및 전략 등이 제시되어 왔으나, 부처별 입장에서 제시되는 한계점을 보이고 있으며, 국가적인 차원에서의 스마트시티 조성을 위한 비전과 핵심전략이 설정될 필요가 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 국내 스마트시티의 현황 분석과 문제점 분석을 통하여 스마트시티 조성을 위한 비전을 설정하였다. 또한 국내외 스마트시티 현황 분석 및 문헌고찰을 통하여 STEEP 분석을 실시하고, 이를 기반으로 인과지도를 작성하여, 스마트시티 비전 달성을 위한 주요전략들을 도출하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 스마트시티 비전 및 주요전략들은 성공적인 스마트시티 조성을 위한 방향 설정에 기여할 수 있을 것이다.

BSC의 한계 극복을 위한 시스템다이내믹스의 활용 (A Study on the Application of System Dynamics to Overcome BSC Limitations)

  • 조현웅;연승준;김상욱
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.211-227
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    • 2007
  • Like the saying "You can't manage what you can't measure," performance measurement is considered as one of the most important management activities for the organizations in either private or public sector. Performance measurement, however, has thus far relied too much on financial statements. Realizing the importance of a more scientific and comprehensive performance measurement, many organizations have adopted several different systems in order to objectively estimate their balanced performance results. The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) has become a popular means to measure performance. But the BSC has also received some criticisms. In this paper four limitations in the use of the BSC are discussed : BSCs focus on unidirectional causality, are unable to distinguish delays between actions and their impacts on performance, integrate insufficiently strategy with operational measures, and lead to internal biases. We propose a system dynamics approach with causal loop diagram(CLD) to develop a Dynamic BSC in order to overcome these limitations. The results suggest that developing a BSC with system dynamics is a promising approach to supplement existing BSC frameworks.

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시스템다이내믹스를 이용한 메가이벤트 개최 효과 분석: 대장경문화축전에의 적용 (Analysis of Mega Event effect using System Dynamics : Application in Millennial Anniversary of the Tripitaka Koreana)

  • 박경열;최승담;김동환
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.31-53
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to explain the impact of hosting mega event using the system dynamics and to establish the model for analysis of the impact of hosting mega event. The results are as follows. First, the growth of inbound tourists have influenced long term effect. Second, the export has increased for a limited period only after the hosting mega event, but the increase in export returned to the previous state in terms of economic impact of mega event. Third, nation brand has been improved for a limited period only such as the economical impact in terms of socio-cultural impact of mega event. Last, citizenship consciousness has been improved after hosting mega event. Further researches have to be carried out to modify and reinforce the model.

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LCD 산업의 경쟁력 향상을 위한 시스템 다이내믹스 응용

  • 장현주;김도훈
    • 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국경영정보학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.585-589
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    • 2008
  • LCD (Liquid Crystal Display)는 디지털 기기의 주요 구성 요소이며, 모든 크기의 FPD (Flat Panel Display) 시장에서 지배적인 시장점유율을 보인다. 그러나 많은 전문가들은 LCD 산업이 수년 내에 OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diodes), 3차원 디스플레이, 플렉서블 디스플레이와 같은 차세대 디스플레이 기술의 강력한 도전에 직면할 것이라고 예상한다. 이러한 경쟁환경에서 LCD 산업이 살아남기 위한 방안으로 본 연구에서는 LCD 산업의 경쟁력의 원천을 밝혀내고, 이를 극대화하는 전략적 방향을 제시한다. 이를 위해 먼저 LCD 산업구조와 가치사슬을 분석하여 LCD 산업의 경쟁력을 제고하기 위한 기본적인 전략적 대안을 개발한다. 이 단계에서 얻어진 통찰력을 바탕으로, 인과지도(causal loop diagram)와 시스템 다이나믹스 (system dynamics) 방법론을 활용하여 기존의 LCD 산업구조에서 판매량, 시장점유율 및 이익 등의 핵심 지표에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 구조적 특징을 규명한다. 또한, 여기서의 다이나믹스 모형을 바탕으로, LCD 제조업자의 관점에서 프로세스 역량을 극대화할 수 있는 전략적 대안을 모색한다.

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정보기술과 사회 공진화의 동태적 메커니즘과 정책적 함의 (A Thought on the Dynamic Mechanism of Coevolution between IT and Society and Its Policy Implications)

  • 김상욱;김숙희
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 2006
  • In the advent of ubiquitous information technology (u-IT) as a new emerging horizon of information society, inflated expectations regarding u-IT are growing very fast and higher than those made in the past, which would perhaps result in serious bust after boom and incur tremendous amount of social costs. This paper thus investigates a dynamic mechanism underlying the coevolution between information technology and society by applying systems thinking, particularly, with a focus on the typical phenomenon, 'hype curve' which shows how new technologies initially grow too fast for their own good, crashing from a peak of inflated expectations into a trough of disillusionment before stabilizing on a plateau of productivity. Three basic questions are explored to answer by investigating the mechanisms underlying the 'boom-bust' phenomenon: First, why hype curve appears in the process of technology and society coevolution. Second, how to enhance the stabilization level. Third, when is the right time for the policy intervention.

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시스템 다이내믹스 시뮬레이션 기법을 활용한 원전 안전문화 요소간 영향관계 분석 (An Analysis of Safety Cultural Elements Relationships in Nuclear Power Plant by System Dynamic Simulation)

  • 오영민;김동환;정연백;은종환;정영재
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.5-30
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    • 2015
  • This study analyses the inter-relationships between Safety Cultural Elements by System Dynamics approach. Base Frame for Safety Culture, which is originated from IAEA, NRC and INPO's Safety Culture Documents, helps to elaborate the Causal Loop Diagram of Safety Culture in Nuclear Power Plant(NPP). Also, the simulation results show that ownership of employees is degraded continually and adherence of technical standards is violated because workloads of the employees cannot be minimized and stress and time pressure maintains a high level in NPP.

Impact of Irrigation Extension on Malaria Transmission in Simret, Tigray, Ethiopia

  • Chung, Bonhee
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • 제54권4호
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    • pp.399-405
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    • 2016
  • Poor subsistence farmers who live in a semi-arid area of northern Ethiopia build irrigation systems to overcome water shortages. However, there is a high risk of malaria transmission when increased standing water provides more favorable habitats for mosquito breeding. This is a serious problem because there are many barriers to malaria control measures and health care systems in the area. Using a causal loop diagram and computer simulations, the author attempted to visually illustrate positive and negative feedbacks between mosquito and human populations in the context of Simret, which is a small village located in northern Ethiopia and is generally considered a malaria-free area. The simulation results show that the number of infectious mosquitos increases to 17,215 at its peak, accounting for 3.5% of potentially dangerous mosquitos. At the same time, the number of sick people increases to 574 at its peak, accounting for 15% of local population. The malaria outbreak is controlled largely because of a fixed number of vulnerable people or local population that acts as an intermediate host.

시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 체제적 부패 연구 (Using System Dynamics to study systemic corruption)

  • 임성범
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.29-60
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    • 2014
  • As every commentators has noted, bureaucratic corruption, which has complicated causes, is prevalent phenomenon in Korean society. Especially, most people realize that systemic corruption has a strong negative effect on society; however, only few studies reflect on the nature of 'systemic corruption' and it seems that no established theory explains the phenomenon. Thus, this study suggest that we look more carefully into the nature and mechanisms of 'systemic corruption'. Interdisciplinary approach based on the integrated model of structure-behavior to analyse the nature of bureaucratic corruption. The system dynamics method can test the mechanisms of 'systemic corruption'. With this way, the factors generating systemic corruption represent the relationships reinforcing and balancing within system dynamics model. This paper also consider 'isomorphism' and 'dominance' as control mechanisms to systemic corruption. From the CLD(Causal Loop Diagram), three main areas(rent in organization, networking, control mechanisms) are overlapped and it indicates dynamic relationships of systemic corruption in organizations.

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정책수용성의 변화와 예측: 고준위방사성폐기물처분장 입지사례 (Policy Acceptance's Change and Forecasting: Simulation Modelling for High Level Radioactive Repository Site)

  • 오영민
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.39-57
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    • 2011
  • This paper is the result of simulation modeling concerning high-level radioactive waste repository(HLRWR) and people's mind for the facility. We describe a procedure of simulation modeling for resident's policy acceptance and perceived risk of HLRWR facility by using System Dynamics approach. To Complete some complicated works, we made the 20 pieces of stock-flow diagrams based on the causal loop diagram that is a blue print of whole variables and relations. The simulation outputs clearly show that cental government efforts to siting the HLRWR will be failed if nothing to give for the region's residents. On the contrary, a monetary incentive and a regional development program help to turn this gloomy situation into a desirable and acceptable condition dramatically. Government has to prepare the schemes considering the HLRWR acceptance and total supporting program including the cash and local development programs.

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