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http://dx.doi.org/10.3347/kjp.2016.54.4.399

Impact of Irrigation Extension on Malaria Transmission in Simret, Tigray, Ethiopia  

Chung, Bonhee (Institute for Poverty Alleviation and International Development, Yonsei University)
Publication Information
Parasites, Hosts and Diseases / v.54, no.4, 2016 , pp. 399-405 More about this Journal
Abstract
Poor subsistence farmers who live in a semi-arid area of northern Ethiopia build irrigation systems to overcome water shortages. However, there is a high risk of malaria transmission when increased standing water provides more favorable habitats for mosquito breeding. This is a serious problem because there are many barriers to malaria control measures and health care systems in the area. Using a causal loop diagram and computer simulations, the author attempted to visually illustrate positive and negative feedbacks between mosquito and human populations in the context of Simret, which is a small village located in northern Ethiopia and is generally considered a malaria-free area. The simulation results show that the number of infectious mosquitos increases to 17,215 at its peak, accounting for 3.5% of potentially dangerous mosquitos. At the same time, the number of sick people increases to 574 at its peak, accounting for 15% of local population. The malaria outbreak is controlled largely because of a fixed number of vulnerable people or local population that acts as an intermediate host.
Keywords
Plasmodium falciparum; Plasmodium vivax; malaria; irrigation extension; feedback; Ethiopia;
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