• Title/Summary/Keyword: Causal Model Analysis

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A Securities Company's Customer Churn Prediction Model and Causal Inference with SHAP Value (증권 금융 상품 거래 고객의 이탈 예측 및 원인 추론)

  • Na, Kwangtek;Lee, Jinyoung;Kim, Eunchan;Lee, Hyochan
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.215-229
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    • 2020
  • The interest in machine learning is growing in all industries, but it is difficult to apply it to real-world tasks because of inexplicability. This paper introduces a case of developing a financial customer churn prediction model for a securities company, and introduces the research results on an attempt to develop a machine learning model that can be explained using the SHAP Value methodology and derivation of interpretability. In this study, a total of six customer churn models are compared and analyzed, and the cause of customer churn is inferred through the classification and data analysis of SHAP Value and the type of customer asset change. Based on the results of this study, it would be possible to use it as a basis for comprehensive judgment, such as using the Value of the deviation prediction result that can infer the cause of the marketing manager's actual customer marketing in the future and establishing a target marketing strategy for each customer.

A Study on the Website Evaluation Method Using the SEM (구조방정식을 이용한 웹사이트의 인간공학적 평가 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Choe, Jae-Ho;Baek, In-Gi
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the model including multiple causal relationship between factors to evaluate overall user satisfaction and develop an objective method to quantify the impacts and scores of each qualitative factors on overall user satisfaction using Structural Equation Model(SEM) and also test the feasibility to construct a comprehensive website evaluation model including qualitative and quantitative factors. The SEM model used 2 qualitative factors of usability and esthetic factors for the evaluation factors of user satisfaction and select 4 attributes of each factors using factor analysis. 3 shopping mall sites were evaluated to construct the SEM model, and 155 subjects participated the website evaluation using the walk-through and face-to-face survey method. Analysis results showed that the SEM model was statistically significant for all the 3 websites evaluated. Both the usability and esthetic factors showed significant effects to user satisfaction of websites and have positive correlation. The user satisfaction was more effected by the usability factor than esthetic factors, and the simplification and harmonization were the most critical attributes of the usability and esthetic factors.

National Culture And Its Impacts On Cyber Diplomacy

  • Shin, Min-Soo;Khurshid, Sharipov
    • 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.06a
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    • pp.415-420
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    • 2007
  • Diffusion of information and communication technologies is a global phenomenon. In spite of rapid globalization there are considerable differences between nations in terms of the adoption and usage of new technologies. Several studies exploring causal factors including national cultures of information and communication technology adoption have been carried out. The focus of this paper is slightly different from other studies in this area. Rather than concentrating on the individual information technology the cyber diplomacy is the focus. This research conducted an analysis of the impact national culture has on adoption of the cyber diplomacy and its components for 95 countries. The national cultural dimensions were identified using Hofstede's model of cultural differences. The research model and hypotheses were formed and tested using correlation and regression analysis. The findings indicate that worldwide cyber diplomacy adoption is related to national culture. The result has theoretical and practical implications.

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An Analysis of Major Maritime Casualty from Bridge Resource Manage

  • Kim, Thi Thu Lan;Jeong, Jae-Yong;Jeong, Jung-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.13-15
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    • 2011
  • This report represents analysis of the maritime casualty in terms of Bridge Resource Management. We evaluate the attitudes and knowledge of bridge officer regarding human factors issues that have been identified as causal to mishaps in high-risk situations. So to reduce human errors our goal is to establish effective officer resource management (ORM) program which is based on all subjects for cadets in IMO model course. In harmonization with STCW(The International Convention on Standards of training, Certification and Watch-keeping for Seafarers), as the result, the curriculumss in the maritime education institutions is surveyed to improve our education system and then reduce the human errors by mariners at sea.

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Case Analysis and Strategic Impiications for Prod uct and Service Integration (제품과 서비스 통합을 위한 사례분석과 전략대응방안)

  • Kwon, Suhn-Beom
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.217-229
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    • 2009
  • Manufacturers have recently faced such problems like limitation of product differentiation, product commoditization and increased service request level from customers, Some manufacturers have responded the problems by introducing new business model, 'product and service integrated offering', which integrate product and its services as a bundled package, This article introduces innovative 7 cases of 'product and service integrated offering', and provides case analyses : types, methods, purposes, and risks of integration, The result of analysis, 4 strategic directions for product and service integration offering, could help manufacturers to adopt and build their model successfully, Further research topics are field survey with meaningful sample size including Business-to-Consumer and finding new causal relationships among variables like characteristics of industry, product, Integration, interaction between provider and customer, A development of design methodology on how to plan and develope a sound product service integration is the second next step for the research.

A Study on The Causal Relationships Between The International Model of ICT Using The National Quality Award Model (국가품질상 모델을 적용한 ICT산업의 인과 관계 분석 연구)

  • Shin, Dongkeun;Hwang, Changyu
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.87-101
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the measuring instruments for evaluation criteria for Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award(MBNQA), suitable for ICT Industries, and to analyze the cause-effect relationship between those criteria through aforementioned instruments. MBNQA is formed with seven categories: Leadership, Strategic planning, Focus on patients, other customers and markets, Measurement, analysis and knowledge management, Human resource focus, Process management and Results. As excluding the Human Resource Focus category, this study empirically examined the cause-effect relationship among six categories. In order to empirically examine the research model, this study calculated Cronbach's alpha and reliability index, thus examined the reliability and executed Exploratory Factor Analysis. Furthermore, Average Variance Extracted(AVE) is used to verify the discriminant validity. Lastly, the hypothesis testing was made complete through significance test on the paths between variables. The result of this study shows that both leadership and social responsibility have direct cause-effect relationship with Measurement, analysis and knowledge management, Human resource focus, Process management and also that this relationship has direct impact on Human resource focus, Measurement, analysis and knowledge management as well, consequently exerting influence on the result through Process management, Finance and Market data.

An Evaluation Model on Supply Factors of Urban Park (도시공원의 공급인자 평가모형)

  • Chang, Byung-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this paper is to evaluate supply factors of urban parks to answer the research question: What are the causal effects of supply factors of urban parks on visitor satisfaction? After reviewing the literature and the Korean park planning process, we constructed a conceptual framework and have formulated the hypothesis of this research. We had obtained data through a questionnaire, which surveyed 452 visitors at 8 urban parks in Daegu Metropolitan City in 2008, based on a stratified sampling method. After the elimination of 96 unsuitable samples, we have analyzed the data using descriptive statistical methods, Pearson's correlation analysis and a path analysis method. We have found that: 1) While the direct and indirect effect of accessibility(ACC) on visitor satisfaction(VS) turned out to be 0.184 and 0.220, respectively, the indirect effect of information(IFM) and promotion(PRM) on VS turned out to be 0.101 and 0.177, respectively. 2) While the direct and indirect effect of service(SVR) on VS turned out to be 0.130 and 0.236, respectively, the direct effect of ACC turned out to be 0.698. 3) While the direct effect of ACC, SVR and attraction(ATT) on VS turned out to be 0.184, 0.130 and 0.698, respectively, composing 67.96% of causal effect, the indirect effect of ACC, IFM, PRM and SVR on VS turned out to be 0.220, 0.101, 0.177 and 0.236, respectively, composing 42.04% of causal effect. 4) The magnitude of causal effect of supply factors on VS turned out to be ATT(39.98%), ACC(23.14%), SVR(20.96%), PRM(10.14%) and IFM(5.78%) in order, and 5) the causal effect of external supply factors of ACC, IFM and PRM compose 39.06% of the causal effect while that of the internal supply factors of SVR and ATT is 69.94%. The research results suggest that: 1) Planning for park marketing strategy and remedial directions for existing urban parks, in order to increase visitor satisfaction, be focused on IFM and PRM, especially. 2) The research approach and path analysis method adopted by this research be valid and highly useful for planning and evaluation of other recreation areas. It is recommended that: 1) Structural Equation Model on supply factors of urban parks be established in the future. 2) Evaluation of supply factors by type of urban park be performed.

A Study on Wearable Healthcare Device Adoption : An Integrated Approach of UTAUT2 and MIR (웨어러블 헬스케어 기기의 수용에 관한 연구: 확장된 통합기술수용모형과 혁신저항모형의 통합적 접근)

  • Jin, Seok;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.159-202
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    • 2019
  • Purpose The purpose of this study is to explain users' wearable healthcare device adoption using performance expectancy, effort expectancy, the hedonic motivation and price value of UTAUT2, and to identify the causal relationship between intention to use wearable healthcare device and innovation resistance formed by perceived risks. Design/methodology/approach The research model proposed in this study is based on UTAUT2(Extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology) and MIR(Model of Innovation Resistance). In specific, performance expectancy, effort expectancy, hedonic motivation and price value of UTAUT2 and innovation resistance formed by perceived risks of MIR are adopted in our research model. To validate the research model, we carry out the analysis of the survey data using Smart PLS 3.0 to test the hypotheses. Findings According to the empirical analysis results, this study confirms that the performance expectancy, effort expectancy, hedonic motivation, and price value have significant effects on the intention to use wearable healthcare devices. It also finds that perceived risk affects innovation resistance and in turn, innovation resistance affects the intention to use wearable healthcare devices.

Effect of Omni-Channel Use and Customer-Brand Relationship (소비자 옴니채널 성향과 소비자-브랜드 관계에 관한 연구: 브랜드 경험 조절효과)

  • Park, Seung-Hwan
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - The ICT(information and communications technologies) development is affecting consumer behaviors on selecting channel or distribution system. This study aims to advance our knowledge about the factors influencing omni-channel behaviors. This study considers the positive brand experience as the moderating variable into the relationship between omini-channel use intention and consumer brand relation. Also, the effect of positive brand experience on consumer-brand relation is researched. Research design, data, and methodology - This study conducted an empirical test with the subject as customers who purchase goods or service through on-off cross channel simultaneously. The research model is developed from prior literatures about influencing variables on channel selection. The structure of this study is designed to identify causal relationships between the variables. 268 survey data from the questionnaire survey which is conducted to target customers who use online and offline channels, is used for empirical analysis. This study validates generality with descriptive statistics and data reliability with Cronbach's alpha value. The exploratory factor analysis is used for value purification. Then, the confirmatory factor analysis is conducted for structural equation modeling. Finally, the execute structural equation modeling is analyzed to confirm the hypotheses Results - First, the two causal influences between perceived performance risk and the propensity of omni-channel and between price consciousness and the propensity of omni-channel are verified through the empirical test. Second, the result identifies that the propensity of omni-channel is influenced on consumer-brand relationship. Third, the AMOS analysis proves that the moderating variable, positive brand experience, has significant positive impact on consumer-brand relationship. This significant relationship is highly supported by the regression analysis between brand experience and propensity of omni-channel because it results that positive brand experience has positive impact on the propensity of omni-channel. All hypotheses are verified to be true. Conclusions - Based on the empirical result, this study confirms that perceived performance risk and price consciousness are the important factors influencing propensity of omni-channel. According to the additional analysis, the moderating variable and positive brand experience plays important role between the propensity of omni-channel and consumer-brand relationship. Furthermore, positive brand experience influences more on consumer-brand relationship than non-positive brand experience.

A Study on the Parenting Stress of Fathers (아버지의 양육스트레스에 관한 연구)

  • 김기현
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.36 no.9
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 1998
  • This paper investigates the parenting stress of fathers who have preschooler. At first, a causal model constructed, including the parenting stress as a dependent variable and the psychological characteristics of paternal self-esteem and parenting efficacy as parameters. Based on the change of parenting stress, self-esteem and parenting efficacy according to various pertinent to fathers, the causal effect of various variables effecting on the paternal parenting stress is analyzed. The SPSS PC program was used for the statistical analysis, where fully exploited were frequencies, percentages, means, standard deviations, Cronbach α, one-way analysis(ANOVA), path analysis. The results can be summarized into 3 parts, in conclusion: 1) The younger a father is, the higher paternal self-esteem becomes. Paternal self-esteem trend was there, for a father who is a member of large family, and for a father whose education level is high, and for a father whose occupation is professional. Regarding parenting sense of competence, a father shows confidence when he has more income, more educated and less children. 2) The variable analysis effecting on the parenting stress dut to the paternal environment shows that a father feels more stress when his income is less and his spouse is working. The sub-factor analysis on the parenting stress shows that 'typical stress dut to the parenting' increases when his income is less and his spouse is working, and 'pressures pertaning to the parental role and distress' increases for a father with less income, working spouse, less educated and non-professional job. Further 'guilty to the parenting by others' shows higher for a father with less income and a working spouse. 3) The path analysis, which were performed to check the causality of the parenting stress dut to various variables, shows that the self-esteem and the parenting efficacy are significant factors directly effecting on the paternal parenting stress, and the job-satisfaction and marriage-satisfaction are significantly effecting on the parenting stress both directly and indirectly.

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