• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.863-874
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• 2021

FLSA는 총변동벌점을 이용해 구간별상수인 평균 구조를 구현하는 벌점모형으로 다중변화점 탐색을 위해 활용되고 있다. 한편, FLSA는 변화점 탐색에 있어서 점근적 일치성이 만족되지 않으므로 잡음의 크기가 0에 가깝게 수렴하는 경우에도 다수의 거짓 변화점이 식별될 수 있다는 단점이 있다. 이 연구에서는 이러한 FLSA의 문제점을 해결하기 위한 사후추론 방법으로 순열검정 방법을 제안한다. 단일변화점 모형과 관련된 순열검정 방법은 Antoch와 Hušková (2001)에 의해 제안된 바 있다. 이 연구에서는 Antoch와 Hušková (2001)의 검정절차를 확장하여 다중변화점 식별에 사용되는 FLSA와 결합함으로써 다중변화점 모형에 적용할 수 있는 순열검정절차를 제안한다. 모의실험 결과, 제안된 방법은 z-검정과 CUSUM 통계량의 극한분포에 기반을 둔 검정방법에 비해 전반적으로 우수하였으며 거짓 변화점의 식별에 유용함을 확인할 수 있었다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.11-16
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• 2007

Since the seminal work of Engle (1982), many researchers and practitioners have developed ARCH-type models to deal with volatility modelling, which, for instance, is crucial to perform the task of derivative pricing, measuring risk, and risk hedging. In this paper, we base the GARCH(1,1) model to analyze the KOSPI200 data, and perform the CUSUM test for detecting parameter changes in the GARCH model. It is shown that the data suffers from a parameter change.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.547-554
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• 2010

In this paper, we extend the work by Lee et al. (2010) to multidimensional di usion processes. A test statistic analogous to the one-dimensional case is proposed to inves-tigate the joint stability of covariance matrix parameters and, under certain regularity conditions, is shown to have a limiting distribution of the sup of a multidimensional Brownian bridge. A simulation result is provided for illustration.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.417-427
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• 1997

In this paper the parameter change problem in the stationary time series is considered. We propose a cumulative sum (CUSUM) of squares-type test statistic for detection of parameter changes in the AR(1) process. The proposed test statistic is based on the CUSIM of the squared observations and is shown to converge to a standard Brownian bridge. Simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed statistic and a real example is provided to illustrate the procedure.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.163-175
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• 2020

We consider a wide class of general weakly-dependent processes, called ψ-weak dependence, which unify almost all weak dependence structures of interest found in statistics under natural conditions on process parameters, such as mixing, association, Bernoulli shifts, and Markovian sequences. For detecting the tail behavior of the weakly dependent processes, change point tests are developed by means of cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistics with the empirical distribution functions of sample extremes. The null limiting distribution is established as a Brownian bridge. Its proof is based on the ψ-weak dependence structure and the existence of the phantom distribution function of stationary weakly-dependent processes. A Monte-Carlo study is conducted to see the performance of sizes and powers of the CUSUM tests in GARCH(1, 1) models; in addition, real data applications are given with log-returns of financial data such as the Korean stock price index.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.803-809
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• 2011

Properties of multivariate Shewhart and CUSUM charts for monitoring variance-covariance matrix, specially focused on correlation coefficient components, are investigated. The performances of the proposed charts based on control statistic Lawley-Hotelling $V_i$ and likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistic $TV_i$ are evaluated in terms of average run length (ARL). For monitoring correlation coe cient components of dispersion matrix, we found that CUSUM chart based on $TV_i$ gives relatively better performances and is more preferable, and the charts based on $V_i$ perform badly and are not recommended.

• 대한수학회지
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• 제52권3호
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• pp.503-522
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• 2015

In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for a parameter change in nonlinear time series models with GARCH type errors. We introduce two types of cumulative sum (CUSUM) tests: estimates-based and residual-based tests. It is shown that under regularity conditions, their limiting null distributions are the sup of independent Brownian bridges. A simulation study is conducted for illustration.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.89-102
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• 1994

A new method for approximating the average run length (ARL) of cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart is proposed. This method uses the conditional expectation for the test statistic before the stopping time and its asymptotic conditional density function. The values obtained by this method are compared with some other methods in normal and exponential case.

• 한국산업정보학회논문지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.51-57
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• 2010

스테가노그래피는 이미지의 외적인 면에서 미세한 변화를 가진 디지털 이미지에 자료를 은닉하기 위해 사용된다. 은닉이미지가 의심되는 스테고 신호 분석에서 개선된 통계량을 이용하여 갑작스러운 변화를 신속, 정확하게 감지하는 기법의 개발이 필요하다. 이 논문에서는 축차적인 스테가노그래피에서 은닉된 메시지를 감지하고 그 위치를 찾아내는 방법을 제시한다. 즉, 검사하는 이미지에 은닉메시지의 존재 유무를 결정하고 그 위치를 찾아낼 때까지 CUSUM-SPRT 스테간 분석을 기반으로 하는 통계적 검정을 반복한다. 논문에서 일반화된 수식을 위해 개선된 $S^{t^*}_j$를 이용한 통계량 $g_t$를 사용한다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.1551-1559
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• 2013

In this paper, we analyze the Korean Won/Japanese 100 Yen exchange rate data based on the ARMA-GARCH model, and perform the test for detecting the parameter changes. As a test statistics, we employ the cumulative sum (CUSUM) test for ARMA-GARCH model, which is introduced by Lee and Song (2008). Our empirical analysis indicates that the KRW/JPY exchange rate series experienced several parameter changes during the period from January 2000 to December 2012, which leads to a fitting of AR-IGARCH model to the whole series.