• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.329-340
• /
• 2011

The probability concepts mainly used for rainfall or flood frequency analysis in water resources planning are the frequentist viewpoint that defines the probability as the limit of relative frequency, and the unknown parameters in probability model are considered as fixed constant numbers. Thus the probability is objective and the parameters have fixed values so that it is very difficult to specify probabilistically the uncertianty of these parameters. This study constructs the uncertainty evaluation model using Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis -Hastings algorithm for the uncertainty quantification of parameters of probability distribution in rainfall frequency analysis, and then from the application of Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis- Hastings algorithm, the statistical properties and uncertainty intervals of parameters of probability distribution can be quantified in the estimation of probability rainfall so that the basis for the framework configuration can be provided that can specify the uncertainty and risk in flood risk assessment and decision-making process.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
• /
• v.9 no.3
• /
• pp.31-36
• /
• 2009

Bayesian networks are known as the best tools to express and predict the domain knowledge with uncertain environments. However, bayesian learning could be too difficult to do effective and reliable searching. To solve the problems of overtime demand, the nodes should be arranged orderly, so that effective structural learning can be possible. This paper suggests the classification learning model to reduce the errors in the independent condition, in which a lot of variables exist and data can increase the reliability by calculating the each entropy of probabilities depending on each circumstances. Also efficient learning models are suggested to decide the order of nodes, that has lowest entropy by calculating the numerical values of entropy of each node in K2 algorithm. Consequently the model of the most suitably settled Bayesian networks could be constructed as quickly as possible.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.55 no.8
• /
• pp.2844-2853
• /
• 2023

A sophisticated Bayesian multilevel model for estimating group bias was developed to improve the utility of the ASTM E900-15 embrittlement trend curve (ETC) to assess the conditions of nuclear power plants (NPPs). For multilevel model development, the Baseline 22 surveillance dataset was basically classified into groups based on the NPP name, product form, and notch orientation. By including the notch direction in the grouping criteria, the developed model could account for TTS differences among NPP groups with different notch orientations, which have not been considered in previous ETCs. The parameters of the multilevel model and biases of the NPP groups were calculated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. As the number of data points within a group increased, the group bias approached the mean residual, resulting in reduced credible intervals of the mean, and vice versa. Even when the number of surveillance test data points was less than three, the multilevel model could estimate appropriate biases without overfitting. The model also allowed for a quantitative estimate of the changes in the bias and prediction interval that occurred as a result of adding more surveillance test data. The biases estimated through the multilevel model significantly improved the performance of E900-15.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.562-567
• /
• 2009

As a key mechanism of the human emotion interaction, Facial Expression is a powerful tools in HRI(Human Robot Interface) such as Human Computer Interface. By using a facial expression, we can bring out various reaction correspond to emotional state of user in HCI(Human Computer Interaction). Also it can infer that suitable services to supply user from service agents such as intelligent robot. In this article, We addresses the issue of expressive face modeling using an advanced active appearance model for facial emotion recognition. We consider the six universal emotional categories that are defined by Ekman. In human face, emotions are most widely represented with eyes and mouth expression. If we want to recognize the human's emotion from this facial image, we need to extract feature points such as Action Unit(AU) of Ekman. Active Appearance Model (AAM) is one of the commonly used methods for facial feature extraction and it can be applied to construct AU. Regarding the traditional AAM depends on the setting of the initial parameters of the model and this paper introduces a facial emotion recognizing method based on which is combined Advanced AAM with Bayesian Network. Firstly, we obtain the reconstructive parameters of the new gray-scale image by sample-based learning and use them to reconstruct the shape and texture of the new image and calculate the initial parameters of the AAM by the reconstructed facial model. Then reduce the distance error between the model and the target contour by adjusting the parameters of the model. Finally get the model which is matched with the facial feature outline after several iterations and use them to recognize the facial emotion by using Bayesian Network.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
• /
• v.30 no.9C
• /
• pp.887-898
• /
• 2005

In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic model based on Bayesian networks BNs) for recognizing human fatigue. First of all, we measured face feature information such as eyelid movement, gaze, head movement, and facial expression by IR illumination. But, an individual face feature information does not provide enough information to determine human fatigue. Therefore in this paper, a Bayesian network model was constructed to fuse as many as possible fatigue cause parameters and face feature information for probabilistic inferring human fatigue. The MSBNX simulation result ending a 0.95 BN fatigue index threshold. As a result of the experiment, when comparisons are inferred BN fatigue index and the TOVA response time, there is a mutual correlation and from this information we can conclude that this method is very effective at recognizing a human fatigue.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
• /
• v.8 no.5
• /
• pp.400-404
• /
• 2015

In this paper, we study for direction of arrival MUSIC spatial spectrum algorithm in order to desired signal estimation in spatial. Proposal MUSIC spatial spectrum algorithm in paper use model error and Bayesian method to estimation on correct target position. Receiver array response vector using adaptive array antenna use Bayesian method, and target position estimate to update weight value with model error method. Target's signal estimation of desired direction of arrival in this paper apply weight value of signal covariance matrix for array response vector after removing incident signal interference and noise, respectively. Though simulation, we analyze to compare proposed method with general method.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.8 no.4
• /
• pp.203-213
• /
• 2007

In the past, several construction projects have exceeded their schedule resulting in financial losses to the owners; at present there are very few methods available to accurately forecast the completion date of a project. These nay be because of unforeseen outcomes that cannot be accounted for earlier and because of deficiency of proper tools to forecast completion date of said project. To overcome these difficulties, project managers may need a tool to predict the completion date at the early stage of project development. Bayesian Inference introduced in this paper is one such tool that can be employed to forecast project progress at all construction stages. Using this inference, project managers can combine an initially planned project progress (growth curve) with reported information from ongoing projects during the development, and in addition, dynamically revise this initial plan and quantify the uncertainty of completion date. This study introduces a theoretical model and proposes a mathematically information-based framework to forecast a project completion date that corresponds with the actual progress data and to monitor the modified uncertainties using Bayesian Inference.

• Animal Bioscience
• /
• v.34 no.7
• /
• pp.1100-1104
• /
• 2021

Objective: The objective of present study was to estimate heritability of non-return rate (NRR) and success of first insemination (SFI) by using the Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling. Methods: Heifer Traits were denoted as NRR-h and SFI-h, and cow traits as NRR-c and SFI-c. The variance covariance components were estimated using threshold model under Bayesian procedures THRGIBBS1F90. Results: The SFI was more relevant to evaluating success of insemination because a high percentage of animals that demonstrated no return did not successfully conceive in NRR. Estimated heritability of NRR and SFI in heifers were 0.032 and 0.039 and the corresponding estimates for cows were 0.020 and 0.027. The model showed low values of Geweke (p-value ranging between 0.012 and 0.018) and a low Monte Carlo chain error, indicating that the amount of a posteriori for the heritability estimate was valid for binary traits. Genetic correlation between the same traits among heifers and cows by using the two-trait threshold model were low, 0.485 and 0.591 for NRR and SFI, respectively. High genetic correlations were observed between NRR-h and SFI-h (0.922) and between NRR-c and SFI-c (0.954). Conclusion: SFI showed slightly higher heritability than NRR but the two traits are genetically correlated. Based on this result, both two could be used for early indicator for evaluate the capacity of cows to conceive.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.117-130
• /
• 2024

Probabilistic model of seismic demand is the main tool used for seismic demand estimation, which is a fundamental component of the new performance-based design method. This model seeks to mathematically relate the seismic demand parameter and the ground motion intensity measure. This study is intended to use Bayesian analysis to evaluate the accuracy of the seismic demand estimation of Steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs) through a completely Bayesian method in statistical calculations. In this study, two types of intensity measures (earthquake intensity-related indices such as magnitude and distance and intensity indices related to ground motion and spectral response including peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA)) have been used to form the models. In addition, an extensive database consisting of sixty accelerograms was used for time-series analysis, and the target structures included five SMRFs of three, six, nine, twelve and fifteen stories. The results of this study showed that for low-rise frames, first mode spectral acceleration index is sufficient to accurately estimate demand. However, for high-rise frames, two parameters should be used to increase the accuracy. In addition, adding the product of the square of earthquake magnitude multiplied by distance to the model can significantly increase the accuracy of seismic demand estimation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.53 no.7
• /
• pp.481-491
• /
• 2020

The development of agricultural land at Saemangeum has required a significant increase in agricultural water use. It has been well acknowledged that salinity plays a critical role in the farming system. Therefore, a systematic study in salinity is necessary to better manage agricultural water. This study aims to develop a stochastic salinity simulation model that simultaneously simulates salinities obtained from different layers. More specifically, this study proposed a two-stage Autoregressive Exgeneous (ARX) model within a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework. We derived posterior distributions of model parameters and further used them to obtain the predictive posterior distribution for salinities at three different layers. Here, the BIC values are used and compared to determine the optimal model from a set of candidate models. A detailed discussion of the model is provided.