• 융합보안논문지
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.173-181
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• 2008

최근 웜에 의한 사이버 위협이 증가함에 따라 웜의 확산 특성을 분석하기 위한 전파 모델이 연구되고 있다. 대표적인 예로 수학적 모델링 기법인 Epidemic(SI), KM(Kermack-MeKendrick), Two-Factor, AAWP(Analytical Active Worm Propagation)등의 모델 기법들이 제시되었다. 하지만, 기존 모델 방법들은 대부분 코드레드와 같은 네트워크를 대상으로 하는 랜덤 스캐닝 기법에 대해서만 모델링이 가능하다. 또한 거시적인 분석만 가능하고 특정 위협에 대해 예측하는데 한계점을 가지고 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 과거의 위협 발생 데이터를 근거로 하여 Mass SQL Injection 같은 사이버위협에 적용 가능한 마코브 체인(markov chain) 기반 예측 방법을 제시한다. 이를 통하여 각 위협별 발생 확률 및 발생빈도를 예측할 수 있다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.113-130
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• 2023

Hybrid simulation (HS) has attracted community attention in recent years as an efficient and effective experimental technique for structural performance evaluation in size-limited laboratories. Traditional hybrid simulations usually take deterministic properties for their numerical substructures therefore could not account for inherent uncertainties within the engineering structures to provide probabilistic performance assessment. Reliable structural performance evaluation, therefore, calls for stochastic hybrid simulation (SHS) to explicitly account for substructure uncertainties. The experimental design of SHS is explored in this study to account for uncertainties within analytical substructures. Both computational simulation and laboratory experiments are conducted to evaluate the pseudo-random Sobol sequence for the experimental design of SHS. Meta-modeling through polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is established from a computational simulation of a nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) structure to evaluate the influence of nonlinear behavior and ground motions uncertainties. A series of hybrid simulations are further conducted in the laboratory to validate the findings from computational analysis. It is shown that the Sobol sequence provides a good starting point for the experimental design of stochastic hybrid simulation. However, nonlinear structural behavior involving stiffness and strength degradation could significantly increase the number of hybrid simulations to acquire accurate statistical estimation for the structural response of interests. Compared with the statistical moments calculated directly from hybrid simulations in the laboratory, the meta-model through PCE gives more accurate estimation, therefore, providing a more effective way for uncertainty quantification.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제41권6호
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• pp.831-850
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• 2021

Surface subsidence caused by mining subsidence has an impact on neighboring structures and utilities. In other words, subsurface voids created by mining or tunneling activities induce soil movement, exposing buildings to physical and/or functional destruction. Soil-structure is evaluated employing probability distribution laws to account for their uncertainty and complexity to estimate structural vulnerability. In this study, to investigate the displacement field and surface settlement profile caused by mining subsidence, on the basis of a Winklersoil model, analytical equations for the moment-rotation response ofsoil during mining induced ground movements are developed. To define the full static moment-rotation response, an equation for the uplift-yield state is constructed and integrated with equations for the uplift- and yield-only conditions. The constructed model's findings reveal that the inverse of the factor of safety (x) has a considerable influence on the moment-rotation curve. The maximal moment-rotation response of the footing is defined by X = 0:6. Despite the use of Winkler model, the computed moment-rotation response results derived from the literature were analyzed through the ELM-SVM hybrid of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Also, Monte Carlo simulations are used to apply continuous random parameters to assess the transmission of ground motions to structures. Following the findings of RMSE and R2, the results show that the choice of probabilistic laws of input parameters has a substantial impact on the outcome of analysis performed.

• 한국BIM학회 논문집
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.31-39
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• 2017

BIM is effective to improve the labor productivity of construction participants. From this point of view, it is important to analyze the outcome related with BIM Labor which covers most of the BIM investment costs. This research focuses on BIM RFI which is one of the major task of the BIM labor and analyze the outcomes. In addition, this research was quantitatively analyzed by the standby time and related cost caused by BIM labor, which affect the results of the project participants. To this end, analytical standby queue model was utilized to analyze the labor focusing on micros TASK. 11 projects were selected to analyze the results of BIM labor and RFI that the project participants requested to the BIM labor was collected. Through this, it collected variables for analyzing results, and Finally, we pulled out 4 projects for analysis. In this study, the basic results analysis of RFI processing of the BIM labor, the probabilistic analysis of BIM labor service status, and the economic analysis of BIM labor optimal inputs were performed by using the research model presented. The results of this study can be utilized to formulate the optimal strategy for BIM labor inputs(e.g. number of employees, level, time point, etc.) of the construction phase. Moreover, it can contribute to ensuring the credibility of the BIM ROI results by presenting the cost of BIM services in BIM ROI analysis and the standby cost of project participants.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.1148-1161
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• 2017

The success of a business process management system stands or falls on the quality of the business processes. Many experiments therefore have been devoting considerable attention to the modeling and analysis of business processes in process-centered organizations. One of those experiments is to apply the probabilistic theories to the analytical evaluations of business process models in order to improve their qualities. In this paper, we excogitate a conceptual way of applying a probability theory of proportions into modeling business processes. There are three types of routing patterns such as sequential, disjunctive, conjunctive and iterative routing patterns in modeling business processes, into which the proportion theory is applicable. This paper focuses on applying the proportion theory to the disjunctive routing patterns, in particular, and formally named proportional information control net that is the formal representation of a corresponding business process model. In this paper, we propose a conceptual approach to discover a proportional information control net from the enactment event histories of the corresponding business process, and describe the details of a series of procedural frameworks and operational mechanisms formally and graphically supporting the proposed approach. We strongly believe that the conceptual approach with the proportional information control net ought to be very useful to improve the quality of business processes by adapting to the reengineering and redesigning the corresponding business processes.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제42권4호
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• pp.450-459
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• 2010

The present paper investigates the collapse pressure of cylinders with intermediate thickness subjected to external pressure based on detailed elastic-plastic finite element (FE) analyses. The effect of the initial ovality of the tube on the collapse pressure was explicitly considered in the FE analyses. Based on the present FE results, the analytical yield locus, considering the interaction between the plastic collapse and local instability due to initial ovality, was also proposed. The collapse pressure values based on the proposed yield locus agree well with the present FE results; thus, the validity of the proposed yield locus for the thickness range of interest was verified. Moreover, the partial safety factor concept based on the structural reliability theory was also applied to the proposed collapse pressure estimation model, and, thus, the priority of importance of respective parameter constituting for the collapse of cylinders under external pressure was estimated in this study. From the application of the partial safety factor concept, the yield strength was concluded to be the most sensitive, and the initial ovality of tube was not so effective in the proposed collapse pressure estimation model. The present deterministic and probabilistic results are expected to be utilized in the design and maintenance of cylinders subjected to external pressure with initial ovality, such as the once-through type steam generator.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제11권7호
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• pp.3309-3328
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• 2017

The application of Internet of Things (IoT) in the next generation cellular networks imposes a new characteristic on the data traffic, where a massive number of small packets need to be transmitted. In addition, some emerging IoT-based emergency services require a real-time data delivery within a few milliseconds, referring to as ultra-low latency transmission. However, current techniques cannot provide such a low latency in combination with a mice-flow traffic. In this paper, we propose a dynamic resource reservation schema based on an air-interface slicing scheme in the context of a massive number of sensors with emergency flows. The proposed schema can achieve an air-interface latency of a few milliseconds by means of allowing emergency flows to be transported through a dedicated radio connection with guaranteed network resources. In order to schedule the delay-sensitive flows immediately, dynamic resource updating, silence-probability based collision avoidance, and window-based re-transmission are introduced to combine with the frame-slotted Aloha protocol. To evaluate performance of the proposed schema, a probabilistic model is provided to derive the analytical results, which are compared with the numerical results from Monte-Carlo simulations.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.107-120
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• 2003

수십년동안 합류부 교통특성 및 현상을 다루는 많은 연구가 있어 왔지만 합류부 교통류를 평가하는 분석방법론은 그리 많이 개발되지 않았고 특히 합류용량에 대한 연구는 거의 이루어지지 않았었다. 본 연구는 합류부에서 강제합류를 포함한 합류용량을 확률적으로 결정하는 모형 개발을 목적으로 수행되었다. 고속도로 본선 바깥 차로의 시간차두간격 분포를 Erlang 분포로 가정하고 간격수락이론을 이용하여 합류용량 산정 모형식을 개발하였고, 이때 본선 차두간격이 임계간격보다 작은 경우 발생되는 강제합류 형태가 용량 산정식에 반영되었다. 또한. 합류용량 모형식에서 중요한 변수로 사용되는 임계간격을 결정하고자 연결로에서 진입하는 개별차량의 합류 행태를 조사하여 회귀분석을 통한 모형식을 구축하였다. 개발된 용량식을 토대로 합류용량 값들을 도로 및 교통 조건에 따라 제시하였는데 임계간격 크기가 커지고 연결로 진입교통량이 많아질수록 합류용량은 적게 산출되었다. 이러한 합류용량 값의 변화는 기존 HCM 방법에서 제시하고 있는 하나의 고정된 용량 값과는 다른 결과로 해석되고, 변화하는 합류용량 값은 앞으로 연결로 접속부 교통운영에서 고려해야 할 주요한 파라메타라고 생각된다.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.31-46
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• 1997

본 논문에서는 다층 연결 구조(Multistage Interconnection Network, MIN)를 기반으로 하는 병렬 컴퓨터 환경에서 효과적으로 운용할 수 있는 병렬 Optimal Best-First search Branch-and-Bound 알고리즘(pobs)을 제안하고, 성능을 분석하였다. 제안된 알고리즘은 먼저 해를 얻고자 하는 문제를 임의의 G개 부 문제로 분할하고 소수 프로세서로 구성된 프로세서 그룹들에 할당하여 각각의 지역 해를 산출하도록 하였다. 따라서 N개의 프로세서를 갖는 시스템은 G개 프로세서 그룹으로 구분되고 각 프로세서 그룹은 P(=N/G)개 프로세서를 보유하게 된다. 각 프로세서 그룹은 할당된 부 문제의 지역 해를 얻는 과정에 병렬 sub-Global Best-First B&B 알고리즘을 수행한다. 프로세서 그룹들이 산출한 지역 해들 가운데 최선의 값을 갖는 지역 해가 문제의 전역 해로 결정되는데, 이를 위하여 각 프로세서 그룹의 대표 프로세서는 할당된 부 문제의 지역 해를 다른 그룹들에게 전파하도록 하였다. 지역 해 전파는 프로세서 그룹들의 지역 해 비교를 통한 전역해 선정 기능과 함께 프로세서 그룹간 작업 불균형 문제를 상당 부분 해소하는 효과를 제공한다. 알고리즘 설계에 이어 성능 평가를 위한 분석 모형을 제시하였다. 제안한 모형은 B&B 알고리즘 수행에 따른 연산 소요시간과 통신 소요시간을 분리하여 처리함으로 병렬 처리 환경에서 보다 실질적인 알고리즘 성능 평가가 가능하게 함과 동시에, 다양한 컴퓨터 연결 구조에서의 알고리즘 성능 예측을 용이하게 하였다. B&B 알고리즘의 확률 특성을 토대로 작성된 성능 분석 연구의 실효성 검토를 위하여 MIN 기반 시스템을 대상으로 병행된 시뮬레이션 결과는 상호 미세한 오차 범위 내에서 일치하는 결과를 보여 제시한 성능 분석 기법의 타당성을 입증하였다. 또한, 본 논문에서 제안한 병렬 알고리즘을 MIN 기반 시스템에 적용하여 기존 알고리즘의 성능과 비교 평가 결과 제안한 pobs가 문제 해결 과정에서 전개되는 부 문제 수를 줄이고 프로세서간의 효율적인 작업 분배 효과를 제공하는 한편 프로세서간의 주된 통신 활동 범위를 국부적으로 제한하여 성능면에서 우수함을 입증하였다.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회/대한산업공학회 1999년도 춘계공동학술대회:정보화시대의 지식경영
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• pp.426-426
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• 1999

;There are many sources of uncertainty in a typical production and inventory system. There is uncertainty as to how many items customers will demand during the next day, week, month, or year. There is uncertainty about delivery times of the product. Uncertainty exacts a toll from management in a variety of ways. A spurt in a demand or a delay in production may lead to stockouts, with the potential for lost revenue and customer dissatisfaction. Firms typically hold inventory to provide protection against uncertainty. A cushion of inventory on hand allows management to face unexpected demands or delays in delivery with a reduced chance of incurring a stockout. The proposed strategies are used for the design of a probabilistic inventory system. In the traditional approach to the design of an inventory system, the goal is to find the best setting of various inventory control policy parameters such as the re-order level, review period, order quantity, etc. which would minimize the total inventory cost. The goals of the analysis need to be defined, so that robustness becomes an important design criterion. Moreover, one has to conceptualize and identify appropriate noise variables. There are two main goals for the inventory policy design. One is to minimize the average inventory cost and the stockouts. The other is to the variability for the average inventory cost and the stockouts The total average inventory cost is the sum of three components: the ordering cost, the holding cost, and the shortage costs. The shortage costs include the cost of the lost sales, cost of loss of goodwill, cost of customer dissatisfaction, etc. The noise factors for this design problem are identified to be: the mean demand rate and the mean lead time. Both the demand and the lead time are assumed to be normal random variables. Thus robustness for this inventory system is interpreted as insensitivity of the average inventory cost and the stockout to uncontrollable fluctuations in the mean demand rate and mean lead time. To make this inventory system for robustness, the concept of utility theory will be used. Utility theory is an analytical method for making a decision concerning an action to take, given a set of multiple criteria upon which the decision is to be based. Utility theory is appropriate for design having different scale such as demand rate and lead time since utility theory represents different scale across decision making attributes with zero to one ranks, higher preference modeled with a higher rank. Using utility theory, three design strategies, such as distance strategy, response strategy, and priority-based strategy. for the robust inventory system will be developed.loped.