• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.73-77
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• 2022

Recently, as the number of years of operation has increased for more than 30 years, interest in evaluating the remaining life of major power facilities such as transformers and ultra-high voltage cables is increasing. In particular, the risk of failure is increasing because the underground transmission XLPE cable has been built since 1980 and has been operating in excess of 30 years of design life or close proximity. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an algorithm to evaluate the residual life of the XLPE cable considering the load to determine the risk of failure. Since load data is large amount of data, it is necessary to make the variable load information equivalent to the time unit first in order to calculate the remaining life of the system quickly. In overseas literature, transformers are reported to be standardized for variable load equivalent conversion formulas, but they have not been reported for ultra-high voltage cables. Therefore, in this paper, whether the equivalent conversion formula of a transformer can be applied to XLPE cables was reviewed through accelerated degradation tests under equivalent and variable temperature conditions, and considerations were studied when evaluating the remaining operating life of XLPE cables based on the experimental results.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.411-425
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• 2021

Accelerated failure time (AFT) model represents a linear relationship between the log-survival time and covariates. We are interested in the inference of covariate's effect affecting the variation of survival times in the AFT model. Thus, we need to model the variance as well as the mean of survival times. We call the resulting model mean and variance AFT (MV-AFT) model. In this paper, we propose a variable selection procedure of regression parameters of mean and variance in MV-AFT model using penalized likelihood function. For the variable selection, we study four penalty functions, i.e. least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), adaptive lasso (ALASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) and hierarchical likelihood (HL). With this procedure we can select important covariates and estimate the regression parameters at the same time. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated using simulation studies. The proposed method is illustrated with a clinical example dataset.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.41-47
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• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate electrical and structural degradation of flexible CIGS sollar cell exposed to high temperature and humid atmosphere. Method: Accelerated degradation was performed for various time under $85^{\circ}C/85%RH$ and then electrical and structural properties were analyzed by 4-point probe method, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Results: Sheet resistance of the top ITO layer increased with exposure time to the high temperature and humid atmosphere. Blunting of the protrusion morphology of ITO layer was observed for the degraded specimen, while no phase change was detected by XRD. Oxygen was detected at the edge area after 300 hours of exposure. Conclusion: Increase in electrical resistance of the degraded CIGS solar cell under high temperature and humid environment was attribute to the oxygen or water absorption.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.185-198
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• 2002

In the traditional life testing model, it is assumed that a certain number of identical items are tested under identical condition. This is due to statistical rather than practical considerations. The proportional hazards model can be used to develop a realistic approach to determine the performance of an item. That is also capable of modeling the failure rates of accelerated life testing when the covariates are applied stresses. The proportional hazards model is typically applied for a group of items to assess the importance of factors that may influence the reliability of an item. In this paper we considered the interarrival times of an item rather than the time to first failure for grouped items and provided the availability estimation for the determination of maintenance policy and overhaul time. In order to demonstrate the proposed approach, an example is presented.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.107-114
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• 2011

The purpose of this paper is to develop a reliability estimation process of agricultural machinery components using field failure data. Estimating the durability is a time-consuming in the product development process. Using the field data of tractor, failures for major parts are investigated and databases are developed. Accelerated life test using the stress analysis could improve Weibull B10 considerably. This estimation process is useful for preparing the design input and planning the durability target.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.241-247
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• 2015

The purpose of the warranty data analysis can be classified into two categories. Two goals is a failure cause analysis and life prediction analysis. In this paper first, we applied multivariate analysis method that can be estimated in consideration of various factors on the failure cause warranty data. In particular, we apply the Tree model and Cox model. The advantage of the Tree is easy to interpret this result as compared to other models. In addition Cox model can quantitatively express the risk. Second, this paper proposed a multivariate life prediction model (AFT) considering a variety of factors. By applying the actual warranty data confirmed the usability.

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.19-27
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• 2014

In order to estimate the life of 2,5 inch HDD which is adopted by PC environment, make the test plan which reflect the failure mode of market, make the test model of accelerated life test which reflect the stress of temperature. after an analysis of the environment of PC using, test procedure was decided that operation was write 50 % and read 50 %, and then access method was sequential 50 % and random 50%. The acceleration life test was executed on condition that temperature was $50^{\circ}C$ and $60^{\circ}C$, performance was 95 % in max performance, test time was 1000 hours. by the test of goodness of fit of anderson-darling of the failure data during test, it was confirmed that the distribution of failure fellow weibull. test for shape and scale was equal, and shape parameter was 0.7177, characteristic life was 429434 hours at normal user condition($30^{\circ}C$) by the analysis of weibull-arrhenius modeling. It made no difference about the statistics when equality test was executed. The activation energy was 0.2775eV. In analyzing between the failure samples of acceleration test and the samples of market return even though there is detail difference about the share of failure mode, the rank of share was almost same. This study suggest the test procedure of acceleration test of 2.5 inch HDD in PC using environment, and help the life estimation at manufacture and user.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.1712-1717
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• 2007

This paper presents a derating design approach for reliability improvement of an aluminum electrolytic capacitor. The capacitor, usually mounted in a printed circuit board, is used to stabilize the circuit. The main failure mechanism of interest is dry-up of the electrolyte that is mainly caused by two stresses-temperature and voltage. The lifetime under these stresses is modeled as a function of these stresses and time using accelerated life testing. Quantitative variation in the lifetime, according to variations in these stresses, is investigated to perform the derating design of the capacitor so that the stress levels are selected to achieve required reliability measures for reliability improvement. Moreover, sensitivity analysis shows which stress would be a more important factor determining the lifetime.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.19 no.8
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• pp.1446-1452
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• 1994

In this paper, Weibull distribution is applied to the lifetme distribution of a device. The method of Bayesian estimate used to estimate requiring parameter in order to predict lifetime of device using accelerated lifetime test data, namely failure time of device. The method of Bayesian estimate needs prior information in order to estimate parameter. But this paper proposed the method of parameter estimate without prior information. As stress is temperature, Arrhenius model is applied and the method of linear estimate is applied to predict lifetime of device at the state of normal operation.

• KIEE International Transactions on Electrophysics and Applications
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• v.3C no.1
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• pp.15-18
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• 2003

The characteristics of accelerated soft error rate (ASER) for fabricated 8M SRAM are evaluated for various well structures. The application of the Buried NWell (BNW) and the variations of each well structure, well dose in process conditions are checked by ASER failure in time (FIT) in terms of reliability. The application of only the BNW shows the lowest ASER FIT value. The BNW added to the Buried PWell (BPW) shows a 200% increase and the BNW plus the Striped BPW (SBPW) shows a 100% increase compared to applying the BNW. The cases of applying SBPW show very high ASER FIT.