• Water for future
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.75-83
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• 1985

The applicability of ARMA(1, 1) multiseason model, which is in the beginning stage of active researches in the field of synthetic generation is evaluated with the streamflow data at the Nakdong stage gauging station on the main stem of the Nakdong River. The method of parameter estimation for the modelis reviewed and the statistical analysis of the generated seasonal streamflows such as corrlogram analysis and the computation of moments is made. The results obtained by ARMA(1, 1) multiseason model are compared with the historical streamflow data and also with those by two other multiseason models, namely, Thomas-Fiering model and Matalas AR(1) multiseason model. The seasonal streamflows grnerated by three multiseason models were annually summed up to form respective annual flow series whose statistics were compared with those of the annual flow series generated by three annual models, namely, AR(1), Matalas AR(1), and ARMA(1, 1) annual models. The possibility of ARMA(1, 1) multiseason model for the simultaneous generation of seasonal and annual streamflows is also evaluated.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.1-17
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• 2013

In this article, several types of hybrid forecasting models are suggested. In particular, hybrid models using the generalized additive model (GAM) are newly suggested as an alternative to those using neural networks (NN). The prediction performances of various hybrid and non-hybrid models are evaluated using simulated time series data. Five different types of seasonal time series data related to an additive or multiplicative trend are generated over different levels of noise, and applied to the forecasting evaluation. For the simulated data with only seasonality, the autoregressive (AR) model and the hybrid AR-AR model performed equivalently very well. On the other hand, if the time series data employed a trend, the SARIMA model and some hybrid SARIMA models equivalently outperformed the others. In the comparison of GAMs and NNs, regarding the seasonal additive trend data, the SARIMA-GAM evenly performed well across the full range of noise variation, whereas the SARIMA-NN showed good performance only when the noise level was trivial.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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• v.59 no.4
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• pp.417-422
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• 2010

Atmosphere Plasma of Gas Discharge (APGD) has been used in plasma sources for material processing such as etching, deposition, surface modification and so on due to having no thermal damages. The APGD researches on AC source with high frequency have been mainly processed. However, DC APGD studies have been not. In order to understand APGD further, it is necessary to study on fundamental properties of DC APGD. In this paper, we developed a one-dimensional fluid simulation model with capacitively coupled plasma chamber at the atmosphere pressure (760 [Torr]). Nine kinds of Ar discharge particles such as electron (e), positive ions ($Ar^+$, $Ar_2^+$) and neutral particles ($Ar_m^*$, $Ar_r^*$, $Ar_h^*$, $Ar_2^*$(1), $Ar_2^*$(3) and Ar gas) are considered in the computation. The simulation was worked at the current range of 1~15 [mA]. The characteristics of voltage-current were calculated and the structure of Joule heating were discussed. The spatial distributions of Ar DC APGD and the mechanism of power consumption were also investigated.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.93-99
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• 2012

For speech coding, a vocal tract is modeled using Linear Predictive Coding (LPC) coefficients. The LPC coefficients are typically transformed to Line Spectral Frequency (LSF) parameters which are advantageous for linear interpolation and quantization. If multidimensional LSF data are quantized directly using Vector-Quantization (VQ), high rate-distortion performance can be obtained by fully utilizing intra-frame correlation. In practice, since this direct VQ system cannot be used due to high computational complexity and memory requirement, Split VQ (SVQ) is used where a multidimensional vector is split into multilple sub-vectors for quantization. The LSF parameters also have high inter-frame correlation, and thus Predictive SVQ (PSVQ) is utilized. PSVQ provides better rate-distortion performance than SVQ. In this paper, to implement the optimal predictors in PSVQ for voice storage devices, we propose Multi-Frame AR-model based SVQ (MF-AR-SVQ) that considers the inter-frame correlations with multiple previous frames. Compared with conventional PSVQ, the proposed MF-AR-SVQ provides 1 bit gain in terms of spectral distortion without significant increase in complexity and memory requirement.

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.48-55
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• 2003

Hidden Markov Model(HMM) has a doubly embedded stochastic process with an underlying stochastic process that can be observed through another set of stochastic processes. This structure of HMM is useful for modeling vector sequence that doesn't look like a stochastic process but has a hidden stochastic process. So, HMM approach has become popular in various areas in last decade. The increasing popularity of HMM is based on two facts : rich mathematical structure and proven accuracy on critical application. In this paper, we applied continuous HMM (CHMM) approach with AR coefficient to detect and predict the chatter of lathe bite and to diagnose the wear of oil Journal bearing using rotor shaft displacement. Our examples show that CHMM approach is very efficient method for machine health monitoring and prediction.

• The Journal of shipping and logistics
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.93-109
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• 2019

This study applied the statistically significant factors to the short-run model in the existing nonlinear long-run equilibrium relation analysis for the forecasting of maritime economy using the mixed cycle model. The most common univariate AR(1) model and out-of-sample forecasting are compared with the root mean squared forecasting error from the mixed-frequency model, and the prediction power of the mixed-frequency approach is confirmed to be better than the AR(1) model. The empirical results from the analysis suggest that the new approach of high-level mixed frequency model is a useful for forecasting marine industry. It is consistent that the inclusion of more information, such as higher frequency, in the analysis of long-run equilibrium framework is likely to improve the forecasting power of short-run models in multivariate time series analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.151-165
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• 1999

This paper considers the trimmed least squares estimator of the autoregression parameter in the unstable AR(1) model: X\ulcorner=ØX\ulcorner+$\varepsilon$\ulcorner, where $\varepsilon$\ulcorner are iid random variables with mean 0 and variance $\sigma$$^2$> 0, and Ø is the real number with │Ø│=1. The trimmed least squares estimator for Ø is defined in analogy of that of Welsh(1987). The limiting distribution of the trimmed least squares estimator is derived under certain regularity conditions.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.71-78
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• 2005

Recently an important issue in Bayesian methodology is determination of noninformative prior distributions, often required when there is no idea of prior information. In this thesis attention is focused on the development of noninformative priors for stationary AR(1) model. The noninformative priors primarily discussed are the Jeffreys prior, and the reference priors. The remarkable points in the result are that the Jeffreys prior coincides with the reference prior for the case that $\rho$ is the parameter of interest.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.15 no.2E
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• pp.4-7
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• 1996

In this paper, we propose a formula to compute the exact autocorrelations of the autoregressive (AR) process. For an arbitrary value of N, we first review the Yule-Walker equation and some basic properties of the AR model. We then modify the Yule-Walker equation to construct a new system of N+1 linear equations that can be used to solve for the N+1 autocorrelation coefficients for lags 0, 1, …, N, provided that the AR parameters of order N and the power of the white noise of the AR process are given.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.109-116
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• 2001

The detection of corporate failures is a subject that has been particularly amenable to cross-sectional financial ratio analysis. In most of firms, however, the financial data are available over past years. Because of this, a model utilizing these longitudinal data could provide useful information on the prediction of bankruptcy. To correctly reflect the longitudinal and firm-specific data, the generalized linear model with assuming the first order AR(autoregressive) process is proposed. The method is motivated by the clinical research that several characteristics are measured repeatedly from individual over the time. The model is compared with several other predictive models to evaluate the performance. By using the financial data from manufacturing corporations in the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) list, we will discuss some experiences learned from the procedure of sampling scheme, variable transformation, imputation, variable selection, and model evaluation. Finally, implications of the model with repeated measurement and future direction of research will be discussed.