• 품질경영학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.39-48
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• 2001

Preventive maintenance(PM) is an action taken on a repairable system while it is still operating, which needs to be carried out in order to keep the system at the desired level of successful operation. In this paper, we consider a Bayesian approach to determine an optimal periodic preventive maintenance policy. When the failure time is Weibull distribution with uncertain parameters, a Bayesian approach is established. Some numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제40권3호
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• pp.138-147
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• 2017

As the functions and structure of the system are complicated and elaborated, various types of structures are emerging to increase reliability in order to cope with a system requiring higher reliability. Among these, standby systems with standby components for each major component are mainly used in aircraft or power plants requiring high reliability. In this study, we consider a standby system with a multi-functional standby component in which one standby component simultaneously performs the functions of several major components. The structure of a parallel system with multifunctional standby components can also be seen in real aircraft hydraulic pump systems and is very efficient in terms of weight, space, and cost as compared to a basic standby system. All components of the system have complete operation, complete failure, only two states, and the system has multiple states depending on the state of the component. At this time, the multi-functional standby component is assumed to be in a non-operating standby state (Cold Standby) when the main component fails. In addition, the failure rate of each part follows the Weibull distribution which can be expressed as increasing type, constant type, and decreasing type according to the shape parameter. If the Weibull distribution is used, it can be applied to various environments in a realistic manner compared to the exponential distribution that can be reflected only when the failure rate is constant. In this paper, Markov chain analysis method is applied to evaluate the reliability of multi-functional multi-state standby system. In order to verify the validity of the reliability, a graph was generated by applying arbitrary shape parameters and scale parameter values through Excel. In order to analyze the effect of multi-functional multi-state standby system using Weibull distribution, we compared the reliability based on the most basic parallel system and the standby system.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.130-139
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• 2017

기상청 동네예보 풍속으로부터 농작물의 강풍피해를 예측하기 위해, 방재기상관측지점 19곳의 2012년 풍속자료를 이용하여 기상청 동네예보의 3시간 간격과 동일한 0000, 0300 ${\cdots}$ 2100 시간대의 풍속과 직전 3시간 동안의 최대풍속 간의 관계를 직선회귀식으로 표현하였다. 매 3시간 마다 추정된 최대풍속 중 가장 큰 값을 일 최대풍속으로 간주하고, 이 때의 추정오차를 정규분포와 Weibull 분포 확률밀도함수로 표현하였다. 또한 일 최대풍속과 작물 피해 임계풍속 간의 편차를 추정오차 기반 확률 분포에 적용하여 확률누적값으로 풍해 '주의보'와 '경보' 단계를 설정하였다. 19지점별 최대풍속 추정 회귀계수(a, b)와 추정오차의 표준편차 및 Weibull 분포의 모수(${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$)는 공간내삽하여 분포도로 작성하고 종관기상관측지점 4곳(순천, 남원, 임실, 장수)의 격자값을 추출하였다. 이를 이용해 2012년의 일 최대풍속을 추정하고, 배 만삼길 품종의 낙과 발생 사례에서 제시된 풍속 10m/s를 낙과 임계풍속으로 간주, 풍해 주의보와 경보를 판정하였다. 그 결과, 최대풍속 추정오차를 Weibull 분포로 표현하여 풍해 위험 정도를 판정하는 것이 정규분포만을 이용하는 것보다 더 현장에 정확한 주의보를 발령할 수 있었다.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.152-161
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• 1993

This paper deals with the effect of spatial distribution of material properties on its statistical characteristics and numerical estimation method of reliability of fatigue sensitive structures with respect to the fatigue crack growth. A method is proposed to determine experimentally the probability distribution functions of material parameters of Paris law. da/dN=C(ΔK/K sub(0) ) super(m), using stress intensity factor controlled fatigue tests. The result with a high tensile strength steel shows that the distribution of the parameter m is approximately normal and that of 1/C, is a 3-parameter Weibull. The main result obtained are : (1) The theoretical autocorrelation of the resistance, 1/C, to fatigue crack growth are almost same for different lengths. (2) The variance decreases with the increasing a averaging length. When spatial correlation length is very small. the variane decreases significantly were the averaging length. (3) The probability distribution of load cycles or the number for a crack to reach a certain length can be estimated using these functions by simulation of non-Gaussian(expecially Weibull) Stochastic Process.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.3-11
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• 1981

동일한 부품 K개를 갖고 있으며, 그 중에서 S개 이상의 스트렝스(strength)가 스트레스(stress) 보다 크게 될 경우 신뢰성이 유지되는 시스템에서 스트레스와 스트렝스가 모두 와이블(weibull) 분포를 하고 있을 때의 시스템 신뢰성을 고찰하였다. 2 절에서는 시스템 신뢰성의 최소분산불편추정량(MVU estimator)을 구하였고, 3 절에서는 최소분산불편추정량의 점근분포(asymototic distribution)를 구하고 표본크기가 클때 시스템 신뢰성의 최소분산불편추정량과 최우추정량(MLE)과의 관계를 구하였으며, 4 절에서는 시스템 신뢰성의 일양최적불편신뢰구간(uniformly most accurate unbiased confidence interval) 을 구하였고, 5 절에서는 몬데 카를로 씨뮤레이션(Monte Carlo Simulation)을 사용하여 작은 표본에서의 최우추정량과 최소분산불편추정량의 편기(bias)와 평균자승오차(MSE)를 비교하였고 6 절에서는 결과를 간단히 요약하고 본 논문을 더 확장할 경우에 문제점을 제시하였다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.49-65
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• 2001

This paper presents new compromise ALT plan which is applied to situations that true relationship between stress and parameters is not known exactly. The assumed failure distribution of this study is one of location-scale family, i. e., exponential, Weibull, and lognormal distributions which have been ones of the popular choices of failure distributions. The method of applying the stress is constant, and the censoring mechanism is Type I censoring. Compared with existing compromise plans under true simple linear model in terms of statistical efficiency, the efficiency of new compromise plan is better than the corresponding other compromise ones in most cases. For case when true model is quadratic, this plan can be used without any severe loss in statistical efficiency. The proposed new compromise ALT plan is illustrated with a numerical example and sensitivity analyses are conducted to study effects of pre-estimates of design parameters.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.26-36
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• 2020

An extreme value analysis of metocean data which include wave, wind, and current data is a prerequisite for the operation and survival of offshore structures. The purpose of this study was to provide information about the return wave, wind, and current values for the Barents Sea using extreme value analysis. Hindcast datasets of the Global Reanalysis of Ocean Waves 2012 (GROW2012) for a waves, winds and currents were obtained from the Oceanweather Inc. The Gumbel distribution, 2 and 3 parameters Weibull distributions and log-normal distribution were used for the extreme value analysis. The least square method was used to estimate the parameters for the extreme value distribution. The return values, including the significant wave height, spectral peak wave period, wind speed and current speed at surface, were calculated and it will be utilized to design offshore structures to be operated in the Barents Sea.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.367-379
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• 1998

This paper considers two modes of partially accelerated life tests for items having Weibull lifetime distributions. In a use-to-acclerated mode each item is first run at use condition and, if it does not fail for a specified time, then it is run at accelerated condition until a predetermined censoring time. In an accelerated-to-use mode each one is first run at accelerated condition and, if it does not fail for a specified time, then it is run at use condition. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the lifetime distribution at use condition, and the 'acceleration factor' are obtained. The stress change time for each mode is determined to minimize the asymptotic variance of the acceleration factor, and the two modes are compared. For selected values of the design parameters the optimum plans are obtained, and the effects of the incorrect pre-estimates of the design parameters are investigated. Minimizing the generalized asymptotic variance of the estimators of the model parameters is also considered as an optimality criterion.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.32-39
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• 2013

Effects of Weibull shape parameter, k, on capacity factors of wind turbines were investigated. Wind distributions with mean wind speeds of 5 m/s, 6 m/s, 7 m/s and 8 m/s were simulated and used to estimate the annual energy productions and capacity factors of a 2MW wind turbine for various Weibull shape parameters. It was found from the study that the capacity factors of wind turbines are much affected by Weibull shape parameters. When the annual mean wind speed at the hub height of a wind turbine was about 7 m/s, and the air density was assumed to be 1.225 $kg/m^3$, the maximum capacity factor of a 2 MW wind turbine having a rated wind speed of 13 m/s was found to occur with the shape parameter of 2. It was also found that as the mean wind speed increased, the Weibull k parameter which yielded the maximum capacity factor increased. The simulated results were also validated by predictions of capacity factors of wind turbines using wind data measured in complex terrain.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.689-696
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• 2007

This paper considers a Bayesian approach to determine an optimal PM policy with random maintenance quality. Thus, we assume that the quality of a PM action is a random variable following a probability distribution. When the failure time is Weibull distribution with uncertain parameters, a Bayesian approach is established to formally express and update the uncertain parameters for determining an optimal PM policy. Finally, the numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.