• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률분포모델

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A Study on the Computer Application and Learning Model in the CAQC Education (CAQC교육에 있어서 컴퓨터 활용과 학습모델에 관한 연구 - 히스토그램을 중심으로 한 학습모델 -)

  • Choi Myung-Ho
    • Journal of Engineering Education Research
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.3-13
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    • 2000
  • The paper has analyzed and summarized about the theoretical problem occurred in the CAQC, and has developed the learning model focused on the histogram as a case study. The range of study is to systematize the basic method of histogram generally used, and to make step by step procedures under the interactive relation with the improvement of the theory that must be added in case of the calculation by the aided of MS-Excel software. A histogram is the theory to understand the population distribution from which samples are extracted, so alternative methods are presented to estimate the population shape through an experiment and a practice. In order to enlarge the application area of the histogram in the factory, the theory of normal test, the criteria of process capability index and the probability calculation of PPM are added to the histogram. The learning model of CAQC education is proposed that is consistent with the target of histogram to control and search the cause of item defectives fast and correctly.

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Modeling message dissemination over multi-channel social network (다중 채널 소셜 네트워크상의 메시지 전송 모델링)

  • Kim, Kyung Baek
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2014
  • In these days, along with the extreme popularity of online social network services, it becomes an important problem understanding the role of social network in the research of message dissemination. Past studies of message dissemination over online social network services mostly consider the coverage of message dissemination and the methods to maximize it. But, these works lack of the consideration of the impact of multi channel social network, which has multiple communication channel with distinct properties of message transfer and various users with distinct channel preferences. In this paper, the new message dissemination model over multi-modal multi-channel social network, the Delay Weighted Independent Cascade Model, is proposed. The proposed model considers various channels including online social network service, email, SMS messaging, phone and mouth-to-mouth and their distinct message transfer properties. In order to consider the various user properties, the different value of probability of forwarding a message and the different preference of communication channel is considered. Moreover, the proposed model considers the distribution of user location and allows to analyze the properties of message dissemination under various scenarios. Based on the proposed model, a message dissemination simulator is generated and the message disseminations on various scenarios are analyzed.

Comparative Analysis of Effective RCS Prediction Methods for Chaff Clouds (효과적인 채프 구름의 RCS 예측 방법 비교 분석 연구)

  • Kim, Min;Lee, Myung-Jun;Lee, Seong-Hyeon;Park, Sung-ho;Kong, Young-Joo;Woo, Seon-Keol;Kim, Hong-Rak;Kim, Kyung-Tae
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.233-240
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    • 2018
  • Radar cross section (RCS) analysis of chaff clouds is essential for the accurate detection and tracking of missile targets using radar. For this purpose, we compare the performance of two existing methods of predicting RCS of chaff clouds. One method involves summing up the RCS values of individual chaffs in a cloud, while the other method predicts the RCS values using aerodynamic models based on the probability density function. In order to compare and analyze the two techniques more precisely, the RCS of a single chaff computer-aided design model consisting of a half wavelength dipole was calculated using the commercial electromagnetic numerical analysis software, FEKO 7.0, to estimate the RCS values of chaff clouds via simulation. Thus, we verified that our method using the probability density distribution model is capable of analyzing the RCS of chaff clouds more efficiently.

A Study on the Optimization of State Tying Acoustic Models using Mixture Gaussian Clustering (혼합 가우시안 군집화를 이용한 상태공유 음향모델 최적화)

  • Ann, Tae-Ock
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2005
  • This paper describes how the state tying model based on the decision tree which is one of Acoustic models used for speech recognition optimizes the model by reducing the number of mixture Gaussians of the output probability distribution. The state tying modeling uses a finite set of questions which is possible to include the phonological knowledge and the likelihood based decision criteria. And the recognition rate can be improved by increasing the number of mixture Gaussians of the output probability distribution. In this paper, we'll reduce the number of mixture Gaussians at the highest point of recognition rate by clustering the Gaussians. Bhattacharyya and Euclidean method will be used for the distance measure needed when clustering. And after calculating the mean and variance between the pair of lowest distance, the new Gaussians are created. The parameters for the new Gaussians are derived from the parameters of the Gaussians from which it is born. Experiments have been performed using the STOCKNAME (1,680) databases. And the test results show that the proposed method using Bhattacharyya distance measure maintains their recognition rate at $97.2\%$ and reduces the ratio of the number of mixture Gaussians by $1.0\%$. And the method using Euclidean distance measure shows that it maintains the recognition rate at $96.9\%$ and reduces the ratio of the number of mixture Gaussians by $1.0\%$. Then the methods can optimize the state tying model.

Ecological Assessment Technique of Connectivity to Disconnected Floodplains by Levee (격리차단된 제내지 하천환경의 생태적 연계성 평가 기술)

  • Cho, Kang-Hyun;Jin, Seung-Nam;Cho, Hyunsuk
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.7-7
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    • 2017
  • 범람파동 개념에 따르면 하도와 홍수터의 횡적 연결성은 하천 생태계의 생물다양성과 생산성 증대에 중요한 역할을 한다. 제방에 의하여 제내지 홍수터가 하도와 차단된 우리나라 하천에서 생태적 서비스를 증대하기 위해서 횡적 연결성을 복원하는 기술 개발이 필요하다. 횡적 연결성의 복원 기술을 개발하기 위해서는 우선 하도와 홍수터 사이에 생태적 연결성의 현황을 파악하고 연결성을 저해하는 요인을 진단하는 평가 기술 개발이 시급히 요청되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 제방에 의하여 차단된 제내지 하천환경에서 수리적, 생태적 횡적 연결성을 평가하고 진단하는 기술을 개발하고 연결성 회복 방안을 제안하고자 한다. 차단된 제내지 하천환경 평가는 1) 지리정보시스템을 이용하여 차단된 하천공간을 탐색하고, 2) 탐색된 전체 재내지에서 원격평가에 의하여 간편하게 횡적 연결성 평가를 실시하고, 3) 선정된 특정 제내지 대상지에서 현장평가에 의하여 상세하게 연결성을 평가하는 순서로 수행된다. 차단된 하천공간의 획정은 홍수가 범람할 수 있는 제내지 공간을 잠재적 하천공간으로 정의하고 수치표고모델 (DEM)과 하천기본계획의 30년 빈도 홍수위 자료를 이용하여 제내지 홍수터를 탐색하였다. 제내지 홍수터의 원격 연결성평가는 지리정보시스템에서 수치지도와 토지피복도 등 공간자료를 이용하여 수리 및 서식처 환경성, 제방 차단성과 하도 및 육상 연결성을 평가하고 원격평가 결과를 토대로 현장평가 대상지를 선정하였다. 횡적 연결성의 현장평가를 위하여 크게 하도-홍수터 연결성과 제내지 서식처 보존성으로 평가 항목을 선정하였다. 또한 연결성 평가는 수리연결성과 생물연결성으로, 서식처 보존성 평가는 습지유지율, 습지보존성, 육역지보존성을 세부항목으로 구성하였다. 평가 항목별로 5 등급의 평가 기준에 따라서 평가 점수를 부여하고 평가 총점을 산출하여 최종 연결성 평가 등급을 5 단계로 구분하였다. 현장평가를 위한 MS Access 기반 소프트웨어를 개발하여, 데이터 입력과 관리 및 평가 결과 산출과 비교를 편리하게 하였다. 개발된 제내지 하천환경 평가법을 청미천과 만경강에 적용하여 검증하였다. 개발된 평가법을 바탕으로 차단된 제내지 하천환경에서 연결성 회복에 따른 어류와 식생의 분포를 예측하는 수리생태 결합모델을 개발하였다. 먼저 차단된 제내지에서 연결 수로를 복원하여 유속, 수심 분포를 준이차 수리수문 모델로 예측하였다. 예측된 수리 환경에 따라서 지표어종의 서식처 적합도 지수 (HSI)를 이용하여 서식 분포 확률을 모의하였다. 또한 일반화가법모델 (GAM)을 이용하여 환경구배에 의한 우점식생의 분포를 예측하였다. 차단된 제내지 하천환경의 생태적 연계성 평가 기술을 기반으로 제방제거, 제방후퇴, 제방고 하강, 수문 및 연결수로 개선, 생물이동 저해 장벽 제거 등의 다양한 복원기술이 개발되어야 할 것으로 생각된다.

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A Study on the Fatigue Strength and Life Distribution of Carbon Steel Using the Database System (데이터베이스 시스템을 이용한 탄소강의 피로강도 및 수명분포)

  • Kim, Jung Kyu;Moon, Joon Ho;Kim, Do Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.10 no.1 s.34
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 1998
  • The relational database system on fatigue strength was constructed, and the properties of fatigue life distribution were examined to analyze reliability and safety of metallic materials. Data manipulations were efficiently performed in relational fatigue strength database system using dependency diagram. Regardless of the distribution of fatigue strength, the proposed method, the Robust method and the complementary error function method using probability distribution, successfully estimated parameters of the 3-parameter Weibull distribution. The proposed criterion for estimating non-failure probability showed good results regardless of censoring time. The fatigue life distribution function described as a function of parameters of the Weibull distribution and applied stress ratio produced P-S-N characteristics reasonably.

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Development of a Probabilistic Approach to Predict Motion Characteristics of a Ship under Wind Loads (풍하중을 고려한 확률론적 운동특성 평가기법 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Sang-Eui Lee
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.315-323
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    • 2023
  • Marine accidents due to loss of stability of small ships have continued to increase over the past decade. In particular, since sudden winds have been pointed out as main causes of most small ship accidents, safety measures have been established to prevent them. In this regard, to prevent accidents caused by sudden winds, a systematic analysis technique is required. The aim of the present study was to develop a probabilistic approach to estimate extreme value and evaluate effects of wind on motion characteristics of ships. The present study included studies of motion analysis, extraction of extreme values, and motion characteristics. A series analysis was conducted for three conditions: wave only, wave with uniform wind speed, and wave with the NPD wind model. Hysteresis filtering and Peak-Valley filtering techniques were applied to time-domain motion analysis results for extreme value extraction. Using extracted extreme values, the goodness of fit test was performed on four distribution functions to select the optimal distribution-function that best expressed extreme values. Motion characteristics of a fishing boat were evaluated for three periodic motion conditions (Heave, Roll, and Pitch) and results were compared. Numerical analysis was performed using a commercial solver, ANSYS-AQWA.

A Prediction Model of Landslides in the Tertiary Sedimentary Rocks and Volcanic Rocks Area (제3기 퇴적암 및 화산암 분포지의 산사태 예측모델)

  • Chae Byung-Gon;Kim Won-Young;Na Jong-Hwa;Cho Yong-Chan;Kim Kyeong-Su;Lee Choon-Oh
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.14 no.4 s.41
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    • pp.443-450
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    • 2004
  • This study developed a prediction model of debris flow to predict a landslide probability on natural terrain composed of the Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic rocks using a logistic regression analysis. The landslides data were collected around Pohang, Gyeongbuk province where more than 100 landslides were occurred in 1998. Considered with basic characteristics of the logistic regression analysis, field survey and laboratory soil tests were performed for both slided points and not-slided points. The final iufluential factors on landslides were selected as six factors by the logistic regression analysis. The six factors are composed of two topographic factors and four geologic factors. The developed landslide prediction model has more than $90\%$ of prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is possible to make probabilistic and quantitative prediction of landslide occurrence using the developed model in this study area as well as the previously developed model for metamorphic and granitic rocks.

LCCA-embedded Monte Carlo Approach for Modeling Pay Adjustment at the State DOTs (도로공사에서 생애주기비용을 사용한 지급조정모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi Jae-ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.72-77
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    • 2002
  • The development of a Pay Adjustment (PA) procedure for implementing Performance-related Specifications (PRS) is known to be a difficult task faced by most State Highway Agencies (SHAs) due to the difficulty in such areas as selecting pay factor items, modeling the relationship between stochastic variability of pay factor items and pavement performance, and determining an overall lot pay adjustment. This led to the need for an effective way of developing a scientific pay adjustment procedure by incorporating Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) embedded Monte Carlo approach. In this work, we propose a prototype system to determine a PA specifically using the data in the pavement management information systems at Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT) as an exemplary to other SHAs. It is believed that the PRS methodology demonstrated in this study can be used in real projects by incorporating the more accurate and reliable performance prediction models and LCC model.

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A Stochastic Analysis of Variation in Fatigue Crack Growth of 7075-T6 Al alloy (7075-T6 A1 합금의 피로균열진전의 변동성에 대한 확률론적 해석)

  • Kim, Jung-Kyu;Shim, Dong-Suk
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.2159-2166
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    • 1996
  • The stochastic properties of variation in fatigue crack growth are important in reliability and stability of structures. In this study,the stochastic model for the variation of fatigue crack growth rate was proposed in consideration of nonhomogeneity of materials. For this model, experiments were ocnducted on 7075-T6 aluminum alloy under the constant stress intensity factor range. The variation of fatigue crack growth rate was expressed by random variables Z and r based on the variation of material coefficients C and m in the paris-Erodogan's equation. The distribution of fatigue life with respect to the stress intensity factor range was evaluated by the stochastic Markov chain model based on the Paris-Erdogan's equation. The merit of proposed model is that only a small number of test are required to determine this this function, and fatigue crack growth life is easily predicted at the given stress intensity factor range.