• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.155-161
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• 2023

97.5% of our country's exports and 87.2% of imports are transported by sea, making ports an important component of the Korean economy. To efficiently operate these ports, it is necessary to improve the short-term prediction of port water volume through scientific research methods. Previous research has mainly focused on long-term prediction for large-scale infrastructure investment and has largely concentrated on container port water volume. In this study, short-term predictions for petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume were performed for Ulsan Port, one of the representative petroleum ports in Korea, and the prediction performance was confirmed using the deep learning model LSTM (Long Short Term Memory). The results of this study are expected to provide evidence for improving the efficiency of port operations by increasing the accuracy of demand predictions for petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume. Additionally, the possibility of using LSTM for predicting not only container port water volume but also petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume was confirmed, and it is expected to be applicable to future generalized studies through further research.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.81-98
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• 2018

Port logistics is essential for Korea's economy which heavily rely on international trade. Vast amounts of capital and time are consumed for the operation and development of ports to improve their competitiveness. Therefore, it is important to forecast cargo volume in order to establish the optimum level of construction and development plan. Itemized forecasting is necessary for appropriate port planning, since disaggregate approach is able to provides more realistic solution than aggregate forecasting. We introduce a new time series model which is Two-way Seasonality Multiplied Regressive Model (TSMR) to forecast oil cargo volume, which accounts for a large portion of total cargo volume in Korea. The TSMR model is designed to take into account the characteristics of oil cargo volume which exhibits trends with short and long-term seasonality. To verify the TSMR model, existing forecasting models are also used for a comparison reason. The results shows that the TSMR excels the existing models in terms of forecasting accuracy whereas the TSMR displays weakness in short-term forecasting. In addition, it was shown that the TSMR can be applied to other cargoes that have trends with short- and long-term seasonality through testing applicability of the TSMR.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.91-104
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• 2020

Seosan-Daesan Port is the sixth largest port in Korea, and it promotes port infrastructure expansion, regular route development, overseas marketing, and port incentive systems for continuous growth. In addition, the port is planning to open a regular car ferry line to Weihai, China. This study aims to provide useful research data for effective decision making by analyzing the feasibility of opening the Chinese (Weihai) car ferry route of Seosan-Daesan Port. Currently, some car ferry routes that operate between Korea and China are open at Incheon Port, the Port of Pyeongtaek-Dangjin, and the Port of Gunsan. In order to estimate the volume of cargo that will be created when the car ferry route from Seosan-Daesan Port to Weihai opens, this research analyzes the domestic cargo volume from the Chungcheongnam-do region, where Seosan-Daesan Port is located, to each of the regions where the other ports are located. We estimated the volume of cargo that can be transported on the car ferry from Seosan-Daesan Port to Weihai. As a result, by 2020, about 76,000 passengers and about 50,000 tons of cargo could be created. Suggestions were made for policy strategies that would revitalize passenger numbers and secure the cargo volume of the car ferry, along with a discussion of and the port incentive system.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.103-119
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• 2021

Ports in Korea have been increasing in terms of volume while they have performed functions and roles such as industrial ports in promoting industries of their hinterlands as well as commercial ports supporting imports and exports. Nevertheless, specialization degree is different from port to port by cargo type and the changes in cargo volume. This study aims to analyze the structural changes and the degree of concentration and specialization by cargo type and port between 2001 and 2020. Top 10 ports were analyzed in terms of traffic volume by categorizing liquid, dry, general cargo and containers. HHI(Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), LQ(Location Coefficient), and shift-share analysis were employed in order to identify the degree of concentration, specialization and changes in cargo volume by port and cargo type. As a result of the analysis, the degree of port concentration and specialization for each cargo of 4 categories have maintained a high level, and no significant difference were found in fluctuations over the past 20 years. As a result of calculating the flucation of cargo volume through the shift-share analysis, the growth rate of liquid cargo was high in Yeosu Gwangyang Port, Pyeongtaek Dangjin Port in dry cargo, and Busan Port in general cargo and container ports. The result implies that it is not expected that the structural changes including degree of cargo concentration, specialization and relative fluctuation of cargo volume is significant in Korean ports in the future since the effects of economies of scale and clustering were achieved to the great degree.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.341-360
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• 2010

The goal of this study is to forecast the scales of seaborne trade of iron ore and coal. It is assumed that the seaborne trade of iron ore is the function of two independent variables(crude steel production, world GDP) and the seaborne trade of coal is the function of two independent variables(crude steel production, world electricity generation). The result shows that the regressions of two functions are statistically significant respectively. As the results of forecasting, the seaborne trade of iron ore in 2010 may be 892 million tons which is increased 5.1% compare to the level of 2009. Also the seaborne trade of coal in 2010 may be 827 million tons which is increased 6.1% compare to the level of 2009. In terms of the compound annual growth rate, it is forecasted that the iron ore may show 4.7% of increasing rate from 2009 to 2015 and the seaborne trade of coal may be increased 6.1% annually for the same period.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.1-11
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• 2021

Port hinterland has been experiencing difficulty in generating new cargo volume and high value-added activity. It will be able to contribute to create new cargo volume and high added-value if transshipment cargo can be switched to trusted processing and then attract to port hinterland. This paper estimates items and volume size that can be the appropriate to attract in port hinterland and also be able to switch to trusted processing based on the trade data and manifest of transshipment container. The 50 items were classified from the result of trusted processing trade and the 33 items of them were suggested as the appropriate to attract in the port hinterland. The result shows that the 3.2 times transshipment cargo volume which is large than the total volume of trusted processing trade in Korea is transshipped at Busan port. This study is the first research to compare trade data and manifest of transshipment container, and thus it contributes to attracting firms in the port hinterland for the port authorities and the government.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.44-52
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• 2020

More accurate forecasting of port cargo in the global long-term recession is critical for the implementation of port policy. In this study, the Busan Port container volume (export cargo and transshipment cargo) was estimated using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model considering the causal relationship between the economic scale (GDP) of Korea, China, and the U.S. as well as ARIMA, a single volume model. The measurement data was the monthly volume of container shipments at the Busan port J anuary 2014-August 2019. According to the analysis, the time series of import and export volume was estimated by VAR because it was relatively stable, and transshipment cargo was non-stationary, but it has cointegration relationship (long-term equilibrium) with economic scale, interest rate, and economic fluctuation, so estimated by the VEC model. The estimation results show that ARIMA is superior in the stationary time-series data (local cargo) and transshipment cargo with a trend are more predictable in estimating by the multivariate model, the VEC model. Import-export cargo, in particular, is closely related to the size of our country's economy, and transshipment cargo is closely related to the size of the Chinese and American economies. It also suggests a strategy to increase transshipment cargo as the size of China's economy appears to be closer than that of the U.S.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.29-40
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• 2001

부산항은 우라나라의 전체 수출입 및 환적 컨테이너 물동량의 약 90%를 처리하고 있기 때문에 지금까지 꾸준한 물동량 증가 추세를 보이고 있다. 컨테이너 물동량의 증가에 따라 정부에서는 항만시설을 지속적으로 확충하여 컨테이너 처리능력을 확대하고 있으나, 컨테이너 물동량의 증가율이 컨테이너 처리시설 확보율을 초과하여 부산항 컨테이너 전용부두의 컨테이너 수용능력은 부족한 실정이다. 이와 같은 컨테이너 장치장 부족문제를 해결하기 위해서 그 동안 부산항의 ODCY에서 처리하였으나, 최근 부두밖 장치장의 단계적 이전 및 폐쇄방침이 결정됨에 따라 부산항의 장치장 부족문제가 대두되고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 장치장 부족문제를 해결하고 부산항 컨테이너 유통체제를 개선시킬 수 있는 방안을 제시하는데 목적을 두고 있다. 이를 위하여 첫째, 부산항의 컨테이너화물 유통 현황 및 문제점을 분석하고 둘째, 부산항 컨테이너화물 유통체제의 개선대안을 설정하여 분석결과를 제시한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2018.11a
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• pp.234-236
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• 2018

현대 사회에서 항만이 전반 공급체인에서 차지하는 역할이 날로 중요해지고 있다. 항만의 역할은 이미 단순한 하역작업이 아닌 화물에 부가가치를 부여하는 중요한 경제활동중심으로 진화하였다. 이러한 항만의 중요성으로 인해 각국은 모두 허브항 육성을 주요 성장전략으로 삼고 있다. 특히 동북아시아는 대형 항만이 가장 밀집된 지역으로 되어 항만 간 경쟁이 매우 치열하다. 부산항은 배후단지 활성화를 통한 안정적인 물동량 유치를 통해 역내에서 경쟁력을 확보하고 있다. 본 연구는 부산항 신항 배후단지에서 처리하는 주요 화물들의 원단위를 산정하여 실제 부산항 신항 배후단지에서 창조하는 부가가치에 대해 정량적으로 분석하였다. 분석결과, 케미칼 제품, LME 벌크, 자동차 부품, LME 컨테이너, 일반화물, LME 내륙운송의 순으로 원단위 비용이 점차 감소하였다. 향후 연구에는 부산항 신항 배후단지에서 취급되는 전체 화물에 대한 세부적인 연구가 이루어질 필요가 있다. 이를 통해 항만이 창출하는 가치를 보다 정밀하게 파악하고 효과적인 물동량 유치 전략을 실행할 수 있다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.159-175
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between trading volume of freight and industrial growth in Korea ports, and to induce policy implications. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And we apply Granger causality based on an error correction model, Hsiao(1981) method and variance decomposition. The results indicate that the extent of causality between trading volume of freight and industrial growth is strong in order of Incheon port, Busan port, Gwang Yang port, Ulsan port. We can infer policy suggestions as follows; The port policy of government must be focused on re-adjusting investment among Korea ports and raising competitive power of Korea ports