• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.1-17
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• 2008

In this paper the cargo transportation were forecasted for the North Port in Busan through time series models. The cargo transportation were classified into three large groups; container, oil, general cargo. The seasonal indexes of existing cargo transportation were firstly calculated, and optimum models were chosen among exponential smoothing models and ARIMA models. The monthly cargo transportation were forecasted with applying the seasonal index in annual cargo transportation expected from the models. Thus, the cargo transportation in 2011 and 2015 were forecasted about 22,900 myriad ton and 24,654 myriad ton respectively. It was estimated that container cargo volume would play the role of locomotive in the increase of the future cargo transportation. On the other hand, the oil and general cargo have little influence upon it.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.166-174
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• 2005

Plan of Logistics facility and Management of Freight trucks need for Efficient Improvement of Urban Goods Movement. For this, it need to clear flow pattern of Freight volumes and Freight trucks on urban space. Therefor, The purpose of this study is to clear space flow pattern of Freight volumes and Freight trucks as base data for Plan of Urban Goods Movement on Incheon city. Incheon city is selected because it is at sea & air ports and carries out various Activity of Urban Goods Movement. As the result of this study, it understands and analyzes Characteristic on flow pattern of Freight volumes and Freight trucks. Through this study, we'll expect that this results could be contributed in the understand of actual conditions of Freight volume and freight trucks and the basic data for Improvement of urban goods movement and the management policy of freight trucks in urban goods movement.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.57-77
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• 2008

The aim of this paper is to make projection of the demand for export loaded container throughput originating at Incheon port in Korea over the period in question. Systematic analysis is used as a forecasting method instead of quantitative analysis. First of all, the method explores coincident indicators which may reflect the square measure of neighboring industrial complexes which originate/destinate general cargo in export traffic trends. It is noted that in terms of the export loaded container throughput, per unit production scale is intermediated transforming from square measure of production facilities to freight weight in Korea. Consequently, the future progress of the volume can be anticipated relying on the development schemes for developing square measure out of the total square of the industrial complexes. Thus, moving-into percentage of the industrial complexes, percentage of business categories, percentage of capacity and percentage of passing through via Incheon port are adopted and the future traffic demand is projected taking advantage of them.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.36 no.6
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• pp.521-526
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• 2012

More efficient and effective volume management of trade cargo is recently requested due to FTA with foreign country. Above all, the grain is the main cargo needed in Korean food life and was appointed as the core trade cargo during FTA. This study is aimed to forecast future demands of grain volumes which are handled at Incheon port because most of the grain volumes are traded at Incheon port in Korea. System Dynamics (SD) was used for forecasting as the methodology. Also, population, yearly grain consumption per a man, GDP, GRDP, exchange rate, and BDI were used as the factors that influence grain volumes. Simulation duration was from 2000 to 2020 and real data was used from 2000 to 2007. According to the simulation, 2020's grain volumes at Incheon port were forecasted to be about 2 million tons and grain volumes handled at Incheon port were continuously reduced. In order to measure accuracy of the simulation, this study implemented MAPE analysis. And after the implementation, the simulation was decided as a much more accurate model because MAPE value was calculated to be 6.3%. This study respectively examined factors using the sensitivity analysis. As a result, in terms of the effects on grain volume in Incheon Port, the population factor is most significant and exchange rate factor is the least.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.17-34
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• 2017

This study aims to analyze the freight transport demand and benefit for the introduction of an automated freight transport system focusing on the Global Industry and Logistics City (GILC) in Busan. In pursuit of this aim, four alternatives were calculated - using the freight volume estimating methods and included, the number of businesses, the number of employees set up, future estimated cargo volume, and switched volume from other transport modes into the GILC. Economic benefits were analyzed against social benefits and costs accordingly. The result of the freight transport demand forecast found, the cargo volume of "Alternative 2-1" to be the most advantageous, applying the number of employee unit method and proportion of employees in Gangseo-gu, Busan. In addition to the conventional analysis of direct benefit items (reduction of transport time, traffic accidents and environmental costs), this study also considered additional benefit items (congestion costs savings, and road maintenance costs in terms of opportunity cost). It also considered advanced value for money research in guidance on rail appraisal of U.K, Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan 2003 of Germany, and RailDec of the United States. The study aims to further contribute to estimating minimum cargo transport demands and assess the economic feasibility of the introduction of new intermodal automated freight transport systems in the future.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.83-104
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• 2010

The purpose of this paper is to prepare container port policy and to contribute to the regional economy by forecasting of the container freight volume for the Donghae Port and Sokcho Port. As a methodology a survey and O/D technique were adopted. O/D technique was applied to the container freight data of Korea Maritime Institute. The main results of this paper are as follows: First, it is adviserable that Gangwondo Province should adopt incentive program of 100,000 won Per TEU rather than 50,000 won per TEU. Secondly, container freight volume for Donghae Port and Sokcho Port is forecast to be 22,388 TEU in 2010, 152,367 TEU in 2015 and 354,217 TEU from 6,653 TEU in 2008. Thirdly, joint port marketing is required for the Donghae Port and Sokcho Port in terms of same region in one hour drive.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2014.06a
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• pp.175-177
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• 2014

본 연구는 부산항에서 차지하는 환적물동량의 위상을 고려하여 환적화물에 대한 정확한 예측을 위한 모델을 수립하는데 그 목적이 있다. 환적물량을 결정짓는 요소로는 부산항의 경쟁력 뿐 아니라 중국 등의 수출입 물동량 증가량과 중국항만의 경쟁력도 중요요소이며, 이들 요소들이 상호간에 영향을 주고 받음에 따라 그러한 순환적 인과관계 분석에 적합한 시스템 다이내믹스(SD) 기법을 활용하여 환적화물에 대한 예측을 시도해 보고자 한다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.75-93
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• 2012

The steel cargoes as the core raw materials for the manufacturing industry have important roles for increasing the handling volume of the port. In particular, steel cargoes are fundamental to vitalize Port of Incheon because they have recognized as the primary key cargo items among the bulk cargoes. In this respect, the IPA(Incheon Port Authority) ambitiously developed the port complex facilities including dedicated terminals and its hinterland in northern part of Incheon. However, these complex area has suffered from low cargo handling records and has faced operational difficulties due to decreased net profits. In general, the import and export steel cargo volumes are sensitively fluctuated followed by internal and external economy index. There is a scant of research for forecasting the steel cargo volume in Incheon port which used in various economy index. To fill the research gap, the aim of this research is to predict the steel cargoes of Port of Incheon using the well established methodology i.e. System Dynamics. As a result, steel cargoes volume dealt with in Incheon port is forecasted from about 8 million tons to about 10 million tons during simulation duration (2011-2020). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is measured as 0.0013 which verifies the model's accuracy.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.7
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• pp.51-58
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• 2002

The purpose of this paper is to find some implications for Korean seaports in terms of operation and development of ports, in particular for attracting more transshipment container cargoes into major Korean seaports. This was accomplished by the O-D analysis between major Korean seaports and top 20 Chinese ports.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.165-185
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• 2011

Transshipment traffic has significant meanings because it gives positive effects on increasing the container handling volumes in seaports, and revitalizes the regional and national development. Korean container port's transshipment traffic volumes, however, will slowly decrease due to the direct ships' calling into Chinese ports, which recently has a huge development plan. There are a lot of stress on forecasting the transshipment traffic volumes because the Korean container port development plans are designed based on this container traffic which consists of import and export traffic, and transshipment traffic. The transshipment traffic volumes are assumed to occupy 40% of total container traffic volumes. Despite of the importance of forecasting the transshipment traffic, a little studies are suggested using the concepts of the port competitiveness. In this respect, this study aims to estimate the Port Competitiveness Index and Transshipment traffic Volumes using the System Dynamics methodology. As a result, transshipment traffic volumes are predicted as: 20 million TEUs in Korea under the 4% annual increasing rates, 90 million TEUs in China under the 6% annual increasing rates, and 2.5 million TEUs in Japan under the 1% annual increasing rates respectively. The suggested results can be used to enhance the container port competitiveness and produce more transshipment traffic volumes.