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http://dx.doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2012.36.6.521

Forecasting the Grain Volumes in Incheon Port Using System Dynamics  

Park, Sung-Il (Graduate school of Logistics, Incheon University)
Jung, Hyun-Jae (Graduate school of Logistics, Incheon University)
Yeo, Gi-Tae (Graduate school of Logistics, Incheon University)
Publication Information
Journal of Navigation and Port Research / v.36, no.6, 2012 , pp. 521-526 More about this Journal
Abstract
More efficient and effective volume management of trade cargo is recently requested due to FTA with foreign country. Above all, the grain is the main cargo needed in Korean food life and was appointed as the core trade cargo during FTA. This study is aimed to forecast future demands of grain volumes which are handled at Incheon port because most of the grain volumes are traded at Incheon port in Korea. System Dynamics (SD) was used for forecasting as the methodology. Also, population, yearly grain consumption per a man, GDP, GRDP, exchange rate, and BDI were used as the factors that influence grain volumes. Simulation duration was from 2000 to 2020 and real data was used from 2000 to 2007. According to the simulation, 2020's grain volumes at Incheon port were forecasted to be about 2 million tons and grain volumes handled at Incheon port were continuously reduced. In order to measure accuracy of the simulation, this study implemented MAPE analysis. And after the implementation, the simulation was decided as a much more accurate model because MAPE value was calculated to be 6.3%. This study respectively examined factors using the sensitivity analysis. As a result, in terms of the effects on grain volume in Incheon Port, the population factor is most significant and exchange rate factor is the least.
Keywords
Incheon port; Grain volumes; Forecasting; System dynamics; Sensitivity analysis; Causal relationship;
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