• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지수검정

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주가시계열의 무한분산과 장기의존성

  • Lee, Il-Gyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2006
  • 쇄신의 분산이 무한인 주가시계열이 장기의존성 과정에 의하여 생성되고 있는가 또는 생성되고 있지 않는가를 검정하고자 한다. 기존의 연구가 쇄신의 분산이 유한한 경우에 한정하여 장기의존성 주가 과정에 대한 장기기억성이 검토되어왔다. 이 논문에서는 쇄신의 분산이 유한한 경우와 무한한 경우에 다같이 적용되는 방법들을 한국종합주가지수의 일별수익률에 적용하여 장기기억 모수를 추정 검정한다. 추정방법으로서는 분수 가우스 잡음, 가우스 분수적분 자기회기 이동평균, 선형 분수안정잡음 등이 형성되는 상황에 절대값 방법, 분수 방법과 총량화 Whittle 방법을 사용한다. 한국종합주가지수의 일별대수수익률 시계열은 분산이 무한한 경우에도 장기의존성과정에 의하여 생성되고 있다. 극치가 존재해도 장기기억과정이 형성 되고 있다.

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A Wilcoxon signed-rank test for random walk hypothesis based on slopes (기울기를 이용한 랜덤워크 윌콕슨 부호순위검정)

  • Kim, Tae Yoon;Park, Cheolyong;Kim, Seul Gee;Kim, Min Seok;Lee, Woo Jung;Kwon, Yunji
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1499-1506
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    • 2014
  • Random walk is used for describing random phenomenon in various areas but tests for random walk developed so far are known to suffer from size distortion and low power. Kim et al. (2014) proposed a sign test for unit root (${\rho}=1$) hypothesis based on slopes. This article proposes a Wilcoxon signed rank test based on slopes for unit root hypothesis, and compares it with the augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the sign test by a simulation study. Our results confirm that the nonparametric tests are better than ADF test for small samples like n = 30. The results also show that the sign test is better than the Wilcoxon signed rank test and that for 0 < ${\rho}$ < 1 (-1 < ${\rho}$ < 0), the nonparametric tests suffer from power loss (improvement) as normal error changes to double exponential error.

Comparison of semiparametric methods to estimate VaR and ES (조건부 Value-at-Risk와 Expected Shortfall 추정을 위한 준모수적 방법들의 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Minjo;Lee, Sangyeol
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.171-180
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    • 2016
  • Basel committee suggests using Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) as a measurement for market risk. Various estimation methods of VaR and ES have been studied in the literature. This paper compares semi-parametric methods, such as conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) and conditional autoregressive expectile (CARE) methods, and a Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE)-based method through back-testing methods. We use unconditional coverage (UC) and conditional coverage (CC) tests for VaR, and a bootstrap test for ES to check the adequacy. A real data analysis is conducted for S&P 500 index and Hyundai Motor Co. stock price index data sets.

Power analysis for $2{\times}2$ factorial in randomized complete block design (블럭이 존재하는 $2{\times}2$ 요인모형의 검정력 분석)

  • Choi, Young-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.245-253
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    • 2011
  • Powers of rank transformed statistic for testing main effects and interaction effects for $2{\times}2$ factorial design in randomized complete block design are very superior to powers of parametric statistic without regard to the block size, composition method of effects and the type of population distributions such as exponential, double exponential, normal and uniform. $2{\times}2$ factorial design in RCBD increases error effects and decreases powers of parametric statistic which results in conservativeness. However powers of rank transformed statistic maintain relative preference. In general powers of rank transformed statistic show relative preference over those of parametric statistic with small block size and big effect size.

Establishment of the Text Method for Evaluating the Fideld Resistance of Rice Varieties to Rice leaf Blight (벼 흰잎마름병 포장저항성 검정방법 체계 확립+)

  • Lee, Du-Gu;Sim, Jae-Seong
    • The Journal of Natural Sciences
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    • v.7
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    • pp.91-101
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    • 1995
  • To establish the simple and practical test method of estimating resistance of rice varieties against rice leafblight, trials were made to correlate among the four test methods such as true resistance test,secondaryinfection test, secondary epidemic test and field test. The results obtained through the experiment on 25 ricevarieties and 3 pathogenic isolates designated to HB9O11, HB9022 and HB9033 can be summarized asfollows. 1 .Based on the results of true resistance test, 25 rice varieties can be classified into four groups:1 )Samgang variety group ;resistant to HB9011, 13 varieties, 2)Pungsan variety group ; resistant to HB9011 and HB9022, 5 varieties, 3)Samgang variety group ; resistant to all three isolates, 2 varieties, 4)Unbongvariety group: sensitive to all three isolates, 12 varieties. 2. The responses of rice varieties to isolates showed some discrepancies among on the test methods. These examples were found in 3 varieties including Yeongdeog varieties to HB9011, 3 varieties including Taebaeg variety to HB9022 and Taebaek vaieties to HB9033. 3. Correlation coefficiences between the secondary infection test and the secondary epidemic test for HB9011, HB9022 and HB9033 were 0.972, 0.894 and 0.919, respectively. It suggests that the two methods are not significantly different so that one of the two methods are not significantly different so that one of the two methods can be omitted from resistant test without affecting the result. 4. Between the true resistance test and the field test at the disease common area, there were no significant correlations. Unbong, Chucheong and Yeongdeog varieties are appeared as resistant varieties in the true resistant test, but their responses in the field test were different and appeared as sensitive varieties. 5. The disease index was used to express theresults from four test methods. The disease index was calculated as the sum of each numerical values of theresults from the four test methods by giving the same weights(0 to 25)to each test method. If the disease index for certain variety is less than 15, then the variety is considered to be resistant. 4 varieties such as Seohae, Hwajin, Yeongdeog and Pungsan varieties-disease indices were less than 15 were selected as field resistance varieties.

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Analysis of counts in the one-way layout (일원배열 가산자료에서의 처리효과 비교)

  • 이선호
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.105-119
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    • 1997
  • Barnwal and Paul(1988) derived the likelihood ratio statistic and $C(\alpha)$ statistic for testing the equality of the means of several groups of count data in the presence of a common dispersion parameter. These tests are generalized to be applicable without the restriction of a common dispersion parameter. And the assumed model of data is also extended from negative binomial to double exponential Poisson model. Monte Carlo simulations show the superiority of $C(\alpha)$ statistic based on the double exponential Poisson family which has a very simple form and requires estimates of the parameters only under the null hypothesis.

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Bayesian Testing for the Equality of K-Exponential Populations (K개 지수분포의 상등에 관한 베이지안 다중검정)

  • Moon, Kyoung-Ae;Kim, Dal-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2001
  • We propose the Bayesian testing for the equality of K-exponential populations means. Specially we use the intrinsic Bayesian factors suggested by Beregr and Perrichi (1996,1998) based on the noninformative priors for the parameters. And, we investigate the usefulness of the proposed Bayesian testing procedures via simulations.

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Testing for $P(X_{1}\;<\;X_{2})$ in Bivariate Exponential Model with Censored Data (중단자료를 갖는 이변량 지수 모형에서 $P(X_{1}\;<\;X_{2})$에 대한 검정)

  • Park, Jin-Pyo;Cho, Jang-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, we obtain maximum likelihood estimators for $P(X_{1}\;<\;X_{2})$ in the Marshall and Olkin's bivariate exponential model with bivariate censored data. The asymptotic normality of the estimator is derived. Also we propose approximate testing for $P(X_{1}\;<\;X_{2})$ based on the M.L.E. We compare the test powers under vsrious conditions through Monte Carlo simulation.

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A study on sequential test based on cumulative sum of statistics (누적합 통계량을 이용한 축차검정에 관한 연구)

  • 박창순;최기철
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.105-120
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    • 1990
  • In this paper, a sequential test procedure is defined by using cumulative sum (CUSUM) of statistics. The properties as well as the efficiency of the CUSUM test are studied in comparison with the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT). It was shown that, the operating characteristic function and the average sample numbrer can be derived by Wald and Wiener process approximations. Also it was shown that the statistics used in the CUSUM test is determined to provide asymtotically equivalent efficiency compared to the SPRT. The efficiency of the CUSUM test and the SPRT are cpmpared by an example for some limited number of cases in the exponential distribution.

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Rank transformation analysis for 4 $\times$ 4 balanced incomplete block design (4 $\times$ 4 균형불완전블럭모형의 순위변환분석)

  • Choi, Young-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.231-240
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    • 2010
  • If only fixed effects exist in a 4 $\times$ 4 balanced incomplete block design, powers of FR statistic for testing a main effect show the highest level with a few replications. Under the exponential and double exponential distributions, FR statistic shows relatively high powers with big differences as compared with the F statistic. Further in a traditional balanced incomplete block design, powers of FR statistic having a fixed main effect and a random block effect show superior preference for all situations without regard to the effect size of a main effect, the parameter size and the type of population distributions of a block effect. Powers of FR statistic increase in a high speed as replications increase. Overall power preference of FR statistic for testing a main effect is caused by unique characteristic of a balanced incomplete block design having one main and block effect with missing observations, which sensitively responds to small increase of main effect and sample size.