• Title/Summary/Keyword: 조건부 검정

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Uncertainty Assessment of Single Event Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Bayesian Model (Bayesian 모형을 이용한 단일사상 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Lee, Jong-Seok;Na, Bong-Kil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.505-516
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    • 2012
  • The study applies a hydrologic simulation model, HEC-1 developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center to Daecheong dam watershed for modeling hourly inflows of Daecheong dam. Although the HEC-1 model provides an automatic optimization technique for some of the parameters, the built-in optimization model is not sufficient in estimating reliable parameters. In particular, the optimization model often fails to estimate the parameters when a large number of parameters exist. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to develop Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based HEC-1 model (BHEC-1). The Clark IUH method for transformation of precipitation excess to runoff and the soil conservation service runoff curve method for abstractions were used in Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. Simulations of runoff at the Daecheong station in the HEC-1 model under Bayesian optimization scheme allow the posterior probability distributions of the hydrograph thus providing uncertainties in rainfall-runoff process. The proposed model showed a powerful performance in terms of estimating model parameters and deriving full uncertainties so that the model can be applied to various hydrologic problems such as frequency curve derivation, dam risk analysis and climate change study.

A Study about the Presumed Economic Value of Miscanthus Landscape Conservation - Miscanthus Colonies in Youngnam Province - (억새경관보전의 경제적 가치 추정에 대한 연구 - 영남지역 대규모 억새군락을 대상으로 -)

  • Park, Seul-gi;Lee, Sang-Cheol;Kang, Gi-lae;Choi, Song-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2016
  • To detail a picture of the economic value of Miscanthus landscape conservation in terms of cultural services aspects of Ecosystem Services, Sunghaksan(Mt.), Hwawangsan(Mt.) and Jaeyaksan(Mt.), which are known for their Miscanthus colonies, were chosen as survey sites. After examining the willingness to pay for the value of Miscanthus landscape conservation by targeting of visitors each study area, the economic value of Miscanthus landscape conservation per capita aspects was evaluated using Contingent Valuation Methods(CVM) from the collected willingness to pay for economic value of Miscanthus scenery by site. After using the target Chi-square test to analyze the differences among each site, the correlation between specific variables was investigated. Willingness to pay for the Miscanthus landscape conservation was found to increase as the respondents' income became higher. The more environmental conservation efforts were being made in their daily life, the higher willingness to pay was for Miscanthus landscape conservation. Likewise in other studies, the higher the bid was, the less willingness to pay was. The per capita assessment of the Miscanthus landscape value of the logit models in the dual estimated using the factor extracted with each of the injected variable bounds was estimated for Seunghaksan (\38,277), Hwawangsan(\38,648), and Jaeyaksan(\48,891). The average of the three sites was estimated to be \38,679. Assessment of the economic value of these Miscanthus landscape sites saw high willingness to pay by visitors when compared to the current market price inflation, such as watching movies or amusement park admission, which could mean that visitors recognize the value of ecosystem services from nature in evaluating the Miscanthus landscape.

Estimates of Time-varying Values of Traffic Information on Variable Message Sign (첨두 및 비첨두시 VMS 교통정보의 가치 변화 연구)

  • Rhee, Kyoung-Ah;Lee, Young-Ihn
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2012
  • The benefit of traffic information on variable message sign can be divided into two. At the public level, the benefit of ATIS is the travel time saving, which is not only induced from ATIS, but also mixed with that of ATMS. In the economic appraisal of ITS, the benefit of ATIS has so far been regarded as the derived benefit from ATMS. At the user level, the benefit of ATIS is reduced driver uncertainty through the forward traffic status information. User can benefit from the information on VMS and therefore may have the willingness to pay for it. Recently attempt to qualify the value of information on VMS was increased, but there was a danger of distorting or over-estimates of the ATIS benefit because the related studies didn't consider the time-dependent attributes of traffic information and provided the single value. Estimates of the time-varying value should be needed for a rigorous economic appraisal of ATIS. In this study, we varied the value of information on VMS according to peak and non peak trip and verified the hypothesis that time-varying of value was statistically significant.

Multifractal Stochastic Processes and Stock Prices (다중프랙탈 확률과정과 주가형성)

  • Rhee, Il-King
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.95-126
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    • 2003
  • This paper introduces multifractal processes and presents the empirical investigation of the multifractal asset pricing. The multifractal stock price process contains long-tails which focus on Levy-Stable distributions. The process also contains long-dependence, which is the characteristic feature of fractional Brownian motion. Multifractality introduces a new source of heterogeneity through time-varying local reqularity in the price path. This paper investigates multifractality in stock prices. After finding evidence of multifractal scaling, the multifractal spectrum is estimated via the Legendre transform. The distinguishing feature of the multifractal process is multiscaling of the return distribution's moments under time-resealing. More intensive study is required of estimation techniques and inference procedures.

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Searching for Growth Engine: For the Firms Belonging to the Chaebol in the Korean Capital Markets (한국 재벌기업들의 성장 동력에 관한 재무적 결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.7134-7147
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    • 2014
  • This study examined one of the contemporary issues that may be interesting to academics and practitioners regarding the driving force of the growth rate for the firms belonging to the chaebols in the Korean capital markets. With respect to the empirical results obtained from two hypothesis tests, the first hypothesis was to identify any financial determinants on the growth rate by applying both dynamic panel data and static panel data models. The debt ratios relevant to the book- and market-value showed their positive relationships with the DV of GROWTH1, along with other significant IDVs such as one-period lagged DV of GROWTH_1, SIZE1 and FOS with statistical significance. Second, by employing conditional quantile regression (CQR) analysis, the control variables, such as ROA, SMARKET, time dummy variable of F2010 and F2011, and the industry dummies of IND3 and IND10, provided evidence of their significant influences on DV of GROWTH1.

Mating Systems and Flowering Characteristics of Megaleranthis saniculifolia Ohwi in a Subalpine Zone of Sobaeksan National Park (소백산국립공원 아고산지역 모데미풀 (Megaleranthis saniculifolia Ohwi, Ranunculaceae)의 교배체제와 개화특성)

  • Lee, Hakbong;Lee, Hyeseon;Kang, Hyesoon
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.116-125
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    • 2017
  • Alpine plants with a scarcity of pollinators in harsh environments have been believed to undergo selfing for reproductive assurance; however, contradictory evidence is also available. Snowmelt regimes in alpine areas function to change life history characteristics of alpine plants such as flowering time and duration; yet the effects of snowmelt regimes have never been tested in alpine plants in Korea. This study was conducted to investigate the dichogamy, mating systems, and flowering characteristics of Megaleranthis saniculifolia populations [early and late snowmelt plots (ESP and LSP, respectively)] in a subalpine area of Sobaeksan Mountain in Korea. M. saniculifolia exhibited incomplete protogyny in that despite early maturation of pistils, maturation times of pistils and stamens within flowers were partly overlapped. Control and hand-outcrossing treatments produced significantly higher number of follicles and seeds per flower than autonomous and hand-selfing treatments. Based on the aggregate fruit set, the auto-fertility index (AI) and self-compatibility index (SI) were 0.33 and 0.50, respectively. Snowmelt occurred 10 days earlier in ESP than in LSP, thereby ESP and LSP showed distinct differences with regard to flower longevity and season, but showing no difference in peak flowering dates. We concluded that M. saniculifolia is an incomplete protogynous and largely outcrossing plant requiring pollinator service. Temporal variation in snowmelt time and subsequent changes in flowering characteristics under climate change may further threaten the population persistence of M. saniculifolia which has already been designated as endangered species in Korea.

A Test on Price Volatility of CO2 Emission Trading Permits focusing on ECX and CCX (탄소배출권 가격변동성의 가설검정 - ECX와 CCX를 중심으로)

  • Lho, Sangwhan
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.45-60
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    • 2011
  • An aim of this paper is to test four hypotheses on price volatility in the $CO_2$ emission markets focusing on European Climate Exchange(ECX) in the EU Emission Trading Schemes(EU ETS) and Chicago Climate Exchange(CCX). I expect that, due to an influx of market information, a differently designed exchange market would bring a different price volatility, and various types of emission permits in the same exchange market would result in the same effects on the price volatility. Major findings are that the price volatility is same regardless of the types of emission exchange markets and emission permits comparing the rate of returns. However, comparing the GARCH variance, the volatility between ECX EUAs and CCX-CFIs and the volatility between EUAs(CERs) futures and daily futures are different with the exception of the volatility between EUAs futures and CERs futures. In conclusion, the price volatility depends on the types of exchanges and the types of emission permits.

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The Effect of the Psychological Characteristics of Office Workers and the Preparation for Start-up on Entrepreneurial Opportunity Recognition and Entrepreneurial Intention (직장인의 심리적 특성과 창업준비가 창업기회인식과 창업의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Myoung Han;Ha, Kyu Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.234-251
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    • 2022
  • In this study, effects of the psychological characteristics of office workers and start-up preparation on entrepreneurship intention by mediating entrepreneurial opportunity recognition were analyzed. As sub-variables of psychological characteristics, desire for economic achievement, self-fulfillment, and risk-taking tendencies were classified. The collected 357 questionnaires, SPSS v24.0 and Process macro 3.5 were used for empirical analysis. As a result, first, it was showed that self-fulfillment and start-up preparation had a positive (+) effect on entrepreneurial intention, and the effect of desire for economic achievement and risk-taking tendencies on entrepreneurial intention was not significant. Second, it was confirmed that psychological characteristics and start-up preparation had a significant positive (+) effect on the entrepreneurial opportunity recognition. Third, it was found that the effect of the entrepreneurial opportunity recognition on the entrepreneurial intention was significant in the positive (+) direction. Fourth, entrepreneurial opportunity recognition was tested as mediating the psychological characteristics of workers, start-up preparation and entrepreneurial intention. As a follow-up study, it is recommended that studies to analyze moderated mediating effects by the conditional process model including moderating variables and to discover the third mediator other than a mediator used in the research should be conducted.