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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.5.505

Uncertainty Assessment of Single Event Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Bayesian Model  

Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Kim, Jang-Gyeong (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Lee, Jong-Seok (College of Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Na, Bong-Kil (Korea Water Resources Corporation, Bohyunsandam Construction Office)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.45, no.5, 2012 , pp. 505-516 More about this Journal
Abstract
The study applies a hydrologic simulation model, HEC-1 developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center to Daecheong dam watershed for modeling hourly inflows of Daecheong dam. Although the HEC-1 model provides an automatic optimization technique for some of the parameters, the built-in optimization model is not sufficient in estimating reliable parameters. In particular, the optimization model often fails to estimate the parameters when a large number of parameters exist. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to develop Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based HEC-1 model (BHEC-1). The Clark IUH method for transformation of precipitation excess to runoff and the soil conservation service runoff curve method for abstractions were used in Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. Simulations of runoff at the Daecheong station in the HEC-1 model under Bayesian optimization scheme allow the posterior probability distributions of the hydrograph thus providing uncertainties in rainfall-runoff process. The proposed model showed a powerful performance in terms of estimating model parameters and deriving full uncertainties so that the model can be applied to various hydrologic problems such as frequency curve derivation, dam risk analysis and climate change study.
Keywords
HEC-1 model; Bayesian; parameters; uncertainty;
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