• Title/Summary/Keyword: 임무성공 확률

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Analysis of the Collision Probability and Mission Environment for GEO (지구정지궤도위성 충돌확률 및 임무궤도 환경 분석)

  • Seong, Jae-Dong;Lee, Dae-Woo;Cho, Kyeum-Rae;Kim, Hae-Dong;Kim, Hak-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.39 no.7
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    • pp.674-681
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    • 2011
  • The increasing number of orbital debris objects is a risk for satellite operations due to space activities over past 50 years since launched Sputnik. The GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit), where COMS-1 is being operated since last June 2010, has more and more risks that collide with space debris or another satellites. In this paper, as a preliminary study about GEO satellite collision probability and operations environment, collision probability between COMS-1 and RADUGA 1-7 that is one of Russian military communication satellites is investigated and analyzed. Indeed, the space environment including space debris of COMS-1 is presented. As a result, it is noted that collision probability between two satellites using NORAD TLEs on 14th Jan. 2011 was 2.8753E-07 in case that position uncertainty was assumed 10km. Particularly, the largest proportion of space debris around COMS-1's mission orbit is meteoroids.

Optimal path planning and analysis for the maximization of multi UAVs survivability for missions involving multiple threats and locations (다수의 위협과 복수의 목적지가 존재하는 임무에서 복수 무인기의 생존율 극대화를 위한 최적 경로 계획 및 분석)

  • Jeong, Seongsik;Jang, Dae-Sung;Park, Hyunjin;Seong, Taehyun;Ahn, Jaemyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.488-496
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes a framework to determine the routes of multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to conduct multiple tasks in different locations considering the survivability of the vehicles. The routing problem can be formulated as the vehicle routing problem (VRP) with different cost matrices representing the trade-off between the safety of the UAVs and the mission completion time. The threat level for a UAV at a certain location was modeled considering the detection probability and the shoot-down probability. The minimal-cost path connecting two locations considering the threat level and the flight distance was obtained using the Dijkstra algorithm in hexagonal cells. A case study for determining the optimal routes for a persistent multi-UAVs surveillance and reconnaissance missions given multiple enemy bases was conducted and its results were discussed.

A Study on the Estimation of Launch Success Probability for Space Launch Vehicles Using Bayesian Method (베이지안 기법을 적용한 우주발사체의 발사 성공률 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Seung-Woo;Kim, In-Gul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.48 no.7
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    • pp.537-546
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    • 2020
  • The reliability used as a performance indicator during the development of space launch vehicle should be validated by the launch success probability, and the launch data need to be fed back for reliability management. In this paper, the launch data of space launch vehicles around the world were investigated and statistically analyzed for the success probabilities according to the launch vehicle models and maturity. The Bayesian estimation of launch success probability was reviewed and analyzed by comparing the estimated success probabilities using several prior distributions and the statistical success probability. We presented the method of generating prior distribution function and considerations for Bayesian estimation.

Design and Performance Analysis of DSP Prototype for High Data Rate Transmission of Lunar Orbiter (달 탐사선의 데이터 고속 전송을 위한 DSP 프로토타입 설계 및 성능 분석)

  • Jang, Yeon-Soo;Kim, Sang-Goo;Cho, Kyong-Kuk;Yoon, Dong-Weon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 2011
  • Many countries all over the world have been doing lunar exploration projects. Korea has also been doing basic research on lunar exploration. The development of communication systems for lunar exploration projects is one of the most important aspects of performing a successful lunar mission. In this paper, we design a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) prototype based on the requirement analysis of a communication link for lunar exploration and implement its core module considering the international standards for deep space communications to perform a basic research on baseband processor development. It is verified by comparing the bit error rate of the DSP prototype with that of a computer simulation.

A Study on the Mission Reliability of Combat System through the Design Structure Matrix and Interface Matrix (설계구조행렬(DSM) 및 인터페이스 매트릭스 설계를 통한 전투체계 임무신뢰도에 관한연구)

  • Lee, Jeong-Wan;Park, Chan-Hyeon;Kim, So-Jung;Kim, Eui-Whan;Jang, Joong Soon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.9
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    • pp.451-458
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    • 2019
  • Reliability in the course of weapons system development and operation is a key measure of the ability of a system to perform the required functions under specified conditions over a specified period of time, and the mission confidence for the assessment of mission fulfillment is an important indicator of victory or defeat in a battle. Mission reliability indicates the probability that a given task will succeed or fail in an event or environmental situation over a given period of time. The existing mission reliability was calculated after creating a confidence blow map with only physical connections based on the mission. However, as modern weapons systems evolve and advance, the related equipment structure becomes increasingly complex, making it impossible to express mission relevance when mission classification is required based on functional or physical connections. In this study, the mission reliability was calculated for a gun control system, which is part of a ship's combat system, by expressing the association between the physical and functional structures using the design structure matrix technique and the interface matrix technique. We expect the study results to be used as verification data for mission reliability.

Development of Indoor Navigation Control System for Swarm Multiple AR.Drone's (실내 환경에서의 AR.Drone 군집 비행 시스템 개발)

  • Moon, SungTae;Cho, Dong-Hyun;Han, Sang-Hyuck;Rew, DongYoung;Gong, HyunCheol
    • Aerospace Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.166-173
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    • 2014
  • Recently, small quadcopters have been widely used in various areas ranging from military to entertainment applications because interest in the quadcopter increases. Especially, the research on swarm flight which control quadcopters simultaneously without any collision can increase success probability of a important mission. In addition the swarm flight can be applied for demonstrating choreographed aerial maneuvers such as dancing and playing musical instruments. In this paper, we introduce multiple AR.Drone control system based on motion capture for indoor environment in which quadcopters can recognize current position each other and perform scenario based mission.

Design of Human Error Model Using SRK-Based Behavior (SRK 행동 모형을 이용한 인적오류 모델 설계 방안)

  • Yim, Jeong-Bin;Yang, Hyeong-Sun;Park, Deck-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.259-261
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    • 2017
  • SRK-BB(Skill-, Rule-, Knowledge-Based Behavior)는 주어진 사건을 처리할 때 인간이 행하는 행동을 체계적으로 식별하기 위한 하나의 이론이다. 이러한 SRK-BB에 대한 결과는 주어진 임무에 대한 '성공'과 '실패'로 나타낼 수 있다. 만약, 어느 사건에 대한 SRK-BB를 식별할 수 있고, 이에 대한 '성공/실패'의 결과를 알 수 있다면, SRK-BB를 이용하여 이들 사이에 연계된 확률적인 관계를 정립할 수 있다. 한편, 해양사고의 결과를 분석한 해양안전심판원의 재결서 또는 재결요약서에는 다양한 사고(즉, 실패한 사건)에 대해서 해기사가 어떠한 행동을 취했는지 상세하게 기록되어 있다. 이러한 해양안전심판원의 자료를 분석하면 실패한 해양사고에 대한 방대한 해기사의 SRK 분포를 확보할 수 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 다양한 해양사고에 나타난 해기사들의 행동을 SRK-BB로 식별한 후 해기사들이 추후 야기할 수 있는 인적오류를 예측하기 위한 모델 구축에 있다. 인적오류 모델을 구축하기 위해서는 우선 해양사고에 포함된 SRK 분포 분석이 필요하고, 시스템적인 입출력 관계를 통해서 SRK에 의한 인적오류의 결과를 예측하기 위한 예측 모델이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 해기사의 인적오류에 의한 사고를 어떻게 SRK 분포를 이용하여 예측할 수 있는지에 대한 개념을 설명하고, 해양사고 데이터에서 획득한 SRK 분포의 의미와, SRK 분포를 이용하여 어떻게 해기사가 야기할 사고를 예측할 수 있는지에 대한 연구접근 방법을 소개하고자 한다.

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Determination of the Optimal Checkpoint and Distributed Fault Detection Interval for Real-Time Tasks on Triple Modular Redundancy Systems (삼중구조 시스템의 실시간 태스크 최적 체크포인터 및 분산 고장 탐지 구간 선정)

  • Seong Woo Kwak;Jung-Min Yang
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.527-534
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    • 2023
  • Triple modular redundancy (TMR) systems can continue their mission by virtue of their structural redundancy even if one processor is attacked by faults. In this paper, we propose a new fault tolerance strategy by introducing checkpoints into the TMR system in which data saving and fault detection processes are separated while they corporate together in the conventional checkpoints. Faults in one processor are tolerated by synchronizing the state of three processors upon detecting faults. Simultaneous faults occurring to more than one processor are tolerated by re-executing the task from the latest checkpoint. We propose the checkpoint placement and fault detection strategy to maximize the probability of successful execution of a task within the given deadline. We develop the Markov chain model for the TMR system having the proposed checkpoint strategy, and derive the optimal fault detection and checkpoint interval.

Effect of Time-to-go Estimate to Impact Time Control Guidance Laws (충돌시간 제어 유도법칙에 대한 잔여비행시간 추정의 영향)

  • Kim, Mingu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.47 no.8
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    • pp.558-565
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    • 2019
  • A lot of studies on the survivability of missiles have been widely studied, since the technology of modern warships equipped with state-of-the-art defense systems has been improved. The survivability of missiles can be improved by attacking a target simultaneously using multiple missiles. For this reason, impact time control guidance (ITCG) laws have been widely studied. This paper deals with the effect of time-to-go estimate to ITCG laws. In this paper, two kinds of time-to-go estimate are first introduced in two-dimensional and three-dimensional environment and then ITCG laws are derived using the time-to-go estimate. Numerical simulations are performed to analyze the performance of the designed ITCG laws and the effect of time-to-go estimate is discussed.

Conjunction Assessments of the Satellites Transported by KSLV-II and Preparation of the Countermeasure for Possible Events in Timeline (누리호 탑재 위성들의 충돌위험의 예측 및 향후 상황의 대응을 위한 분석)

  • Shawn Seunghwan Choi;Peter Joonghyung Ryu;John Kim;Lowell Kim;Chris Sheen;Yongil Kim;Jaejin Lee;Sunghwan Choi;Jae Wook Song;Hae-Dong Kim;Misoon Mah;Douglas Deok-Soo Kim
    • Journal of Space Technology and Applications
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.118-143
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    • 2023
  • Space is becoming more commercialized. Despite of its delayed start-up, space activities in Korea are attracting more nation-wide supports from both investors and government. May 25, 2023, KSLV II, also called Nuri, successfully transported, and inserted seven satellites to a sun-synchronous orbit of 550 km altitude. However, Starlink has over 4,000 satellites around this altitude for its commercial activities. Hence, it is necessary for us to constantly monitor the collision risks of these satellites against resident space objects including Starlink. Here we report a quantitative research output regarding the conjunctions, particularly between the Nuri satellites and Starlink. Our calculation shows that, on average, three times everyday, the Nuri satellites encounter Starlink within 1 km distance with the probability of collision higher than 1.0E-5. A comparative study with KOMPSAT-5, also called Arirang-5, shows that its distance of closest approach distribution significantly differs from those of Nuri satellites. We also report a quantitative analysis of collision-avoiding maneuver cost of Starlink satellites and a strategy for Korea, being a delayed starter, to speed up to position itself in the space leading countries. We used the AstroOne program for analyses and compared its output with that of Socrates Plus of Celestrak. The two line element data was used for computation.