• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시나리오 분석법

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Empowerment on Clinical Nursing Skills Core Program (임상 시나리오 중심 핵심 간호기술 강화 프로그램의 효과)

  • Kim, Hye-Suk;Park, Hae-Ryoung;Park, Eun-Hee
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.589-599
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    • 2014
  • Critical thinking includes creative thinking, open-mindedness, inquisitiveness. Critical Thinking Disposition was significantly higher in experimental group that was enhanced by the scenario-based learning contents than that of the control group(t=4.102, p<.001). Problem Solving process was significantly higher in experimental group that was enhanced by the scenario-based learning contents than that of the control group(t=5.082, p<.001). However, there was no significant difference between the two groups in Clinical Competence(t=2.646, p=.009). But experimental group was significantly higher score than that of the control group score decreased. These results support that the implementation of a scenario-based learning contents need to be continued as an effective educational material but we need more research to establish how this can be effectively implemented in a students' practicum.

Study on Levenberg-Marquardt for Target Motion Analysis (표적기동분석을 위한 Levenberg-Marquardt 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Sunil
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.52 no.8
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    • pp.148-155
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    • 2015
  • The Levenberg-Marquardt method is a well known solution about the least square problem. However, in a Target Motion Analysis(TMA) application most of researches have used the Gauss-Newton method as a batch estimator, which of inverse matrix calculation may causes instability problem. In this paper, Levenberg-Marquardt method is applied to TMA problem to prevent its divergence. In experiment, its performance is compared with Gauss-Newton in domain of range, course and speed. Monte Carlo simulation reveals the convergence time and reliability of the TMA based on Levenberg-Marquardt.

The Optimal Energy Mix in South Korea's Electricity Sector for Low Carbon Energy Transition in 2030: In Consideration of INDC and Sequential Shutdown of Decrepit Nuclear Power Plants (저탄소 에너지 전환을 위한 2030년 최적전력구성비: 노후 원전 단계적 폐쇄와 INDC를 고려한 시나리오)

  • Kim, Dongyoon;Hwang, Minsup
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.479-494
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    • 2017
  • After Fukushima incident, negative sentiment towards nuclear power has led to transition in policies that reduce the dependency on nuclear power in some countries. President Moon of Republic of Korea also announced a national plan of decommissioning retired nuclear power plants stage by stage. Therefore, nuclear power that once was considered the critical solution to energy security and climate change is now a limited option. This study aims to find an optimal energy mix in Korea's electricity system from 2016 through 2030 to combat climate change through energy transition with minimum cost. The study is divided into two different scenarios; energy transition and nuclear sustenance, to compare the total costs of the systems. Both scenarios show that electricity generated by wind technology increases from 2018 whereas that of photovoltaic(PV) increases from 2021. However, the total cost of the energy transition scenario was USD 4.7 billion more expensive than the nuclear sustenance scenario.

Risk Analysis According to the Installation of Fire Doors on Direct Stairs in the Event of a Fire in an Old Apartment (노후 아파트 화재 시 직통계단의 방화문 설치 여부에 따른 위험성 분석)

  • Lee, Sang Im;Kong, Ha-Sung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.869-878
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    • 2021
  • This study is a study on 11-story apartments that increase the event of fires in old apartments where building-related laws and regulations are not retroactively applied. As a result of analyzing the risk of installing fire doors in Improvement Scenario 2-4, assuming that fire doors are installed as basic scenario 1 in the existing situation where fire doors are not installed at the entrance of direct stairs. In basic scenario 1, the visible distance to the entrance of the direct staircase due to the spread of smoke was 260 seconds. Improvement scenarios 3 to 4 with fire doors installed open 300 seconds after the fire was recognized, and when the fire doors were installed at the entrance of the direct stairs, the visibility to the entrance of the statistics team was less than 600 seconds. In this case, the visibility was 600 seconds at the time of installation of the fire door, and scenarios 3 to 4 increased 56.6% compared to scenario 1, lowering the risk of evacuation by more than 50%. In order to eliminate the risk of non-installation of direct statistical groups that increase the risk of smoke spread, building-related laws such as the Fire Fighting Act shall be retroactively applied when installing a direct stairway entrance or balcony folding evacuation system. The improvement caused by the installation of fire doors has numerically proven the necessity of fire doors during evacuation, and the importance of maintaining fire doors can be grasped.

Uncertainty Propagation and Quantification in Climate Change Impact Assessment for Hydrology (수자원분야 기후변화 영향평가에서의 불확실성 전파와 정량화)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.15-15
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    • 2015
  • 기존 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 연구들은 거의 대부분 GCM의 불확실성이 가장 크다고 결론내리고 있으나, ES 불확실성과의 정량적 비교는 하지 못했으며, 기존 접근방법은 민감도 분석 수준에 머무르고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 각 단계별 불확실성을 포괄적으로 정량화하고 수행단계별 불확실성의 전파정도를 추정할 수 있는 새로운 approach를 제안하였다. 첫째, 전체 불확실성, 각 단계별 불확실성 증가 정도, 각 단계별 불확실성의 비율을 제시할 수 있는 새로운 approach를 제안하였다. 또한 불확실성을 정량적으로 추정할 수 있는 방법으로 maximum entropy(이하 ME)를 선정하였으며, 이를 본 연구에서 제시한 approach에서 적용성을 살펴보았다. 둘째, 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 단계별 정량화를 위해 2개 배출시나리오, 4개 GCM 시나리오, 2개 상세화기법, 2개 수문모형을 사용하여 기본적 기후변화 영향평가 단계를 모두 수행하였다. 기존 approach에서는 GCMs의 변화율(89.34)이 가장 커 GCMs의 불확실성이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났으나 제시한 approach에서는 배출시나리오의 불확실성이 전체 대비 58.66 %로 기후변화 영향평가에서 가장 큰 불확실성 발생 원인으로 파악되었다. 모형 불확실성에서는 GCMs의 불확실성(전체 대비 33.57 %)이 가장 높게 나타났다. 또한 배출시나리오의 ME는 3.32, GCMs의 ME는 5.22, 상세화기법의 ME는 5.57, 수문모형의 ME는 5.66으로 단계적으로 불확실성이 증가하였다. 다음으로 유량과 강수를 이용하여 불확실성 정량화를 수행하였으며, 강수를 이용한 불확실성 정량화에서는 유량을 이용한 결과와 다르게 배출시나리오 다음으로 상세화기법의 불확실성이 큰 것으로 나타나 어떤 수문변수에 초점을 두느냐에 따라 불확실성 정량화저감 노력 대상이 달라질 수 있음을 제시하였다. 마지막으로 자연변동성에 의한 불확실성이 기후변화 전체 불확실성의 45.47 % 정도로 나타났으며, 이는 미래 기후변화에 의해 발생하는 불확실성이 과거 자연변동보다 2배 이상으로서, 기후변화에 의한 미래전망의 불확실성이 매우 크게 증가한다는 매우 중요한 결과를 제시하였다.

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Vibration Serviceability Evaluation of a Single Span Steel-Concrete Composite Foot Bridge under Dynamic Pedestrian Loadings Considering Moving Mass Effect (이동 질량 효과를 고려한 단경간 강합성 보행교의 보행 하중 진동 사용성 평가)

  • Wonsuk Park
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we present the analysis results on the vibration serviceability of a pedestrian bridge considering the effect of pedestrian moving mass inertia. Using dynamic finite element analysis, we considered different walking scenarios, including pedestrian density, walking speed, random walking, and synchronized walking, to analyze the acceleration response of a 40m long single-span bridge with a steel composite box cross section. We showed that the equivalent fixed mass analysis method did not significantly differ from the moving mass analysis in the random walk scenario and a wider frequency excitation band may be useful to consider when evaluating vibration serviceability in a random walk scenario.

GCM Scenario Downcsaling Method using Multi-Artificial Neural Network and Stochastic Typhoon Model (다지점 인공신경망과 추계학적 태풍모의를 통한 GCM 시나리오 상세화기법)

  • Moon, Su-Jin;Kim, Jung-Joong;Kang, Boo-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.276-276
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    • 2012
  • 일반적으로 기후변화영향에 관한 연구수행을 위해 전지구기후모형(GCM; Global Climate Model)이 사용되고 있다. 하지만 GCM은 공간해상도(Spatial resolution)가 거칠기 때문에 수문학 분야에서 주로 사용되는 유역규모의 지역적인 스케일특성과 물리적 특징을 표현하는데 한계가 있다. 또한 GCM 기후변수들 중 강수량의 경우 한반도 지역의 6월과 10월 사이에 연강수량의 67% 이상이 집중되는 계절성을 반영하지 못하고 있으며, 높은 불확실성을 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서는 GCM 기반의 다지점 인공신경망기법을 적용한 상세화(Downscaling)를 실시하였다. GCM의 24개 2D변수에 대한 주성분분석을 실시하여 신경망의 학습인자로 사용하였으며, 학습, 검증 및 예측기간은 각각 1981~1995년, 1996~2000년, 2011~2100년으로 A1B 시나리오를 대상으로 상세화를 실시하였다. 또한, 여름철 태풍사상을 모의하기 위한 Stochastic Typhoon Simulation기법과 Baseline과 Projection 사이의 강수량 보정을 위한 Dynamic Quantile Mapping 기법을 적용하여, 강수량의 불확실성을 최소화 하고자 하였다.

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Selection of Release Scenario and Consequence Analysis for Gas Explosion by Pipe Release (배관누출에 의한 가스 폭발사고에서 누출 시나리오 선정 및 사고결과 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Ok;Lee, Hern-Chang;Ryoo, Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.10 no.4 s.33
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    • pp.52-62
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    • 2006
  • In this study, we tried to propose a selection method of release scenarios and a method of consequence analysis at a gas explosion by pipe release. Thus, release rates, damage areas of the facilities, and fatality areas were estimated and analyzed at various release conditions(temperature, pressure, release material, etc). As a results, we could conclude that the rupture was the worst case of release scenarios, and at release rates and damage areas were better estimated by the weighted average method considering a generic failure frequency of the release hole than by an arbitrary selection of the release hole.

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A Study on the Business of the Korean OTT in North American Market : Focusing on scenario analysis based on cash flow estimation (국내 OTT 사업자의 해외시장 진출의 사업성 연구 : 현금흐름 추정에 의한 시나리오 분석을 중심으로)

  • Byun, Sangkyu;Park, Chun-il;Wee, Kyeong Woo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.274-287
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    • 2022
  • Competition in the broadcasting market is intensifying as OTT services are spreading. And Korea is positioned as a competent international contents supply base. This can be helpful for the domestic contents production industry. However, it can result in being incorporated as a subcontractor in the global video industry. Therefore, it is necessary for Korean OTT operators to expand their market upto overseas and maintain competitiveness by linking content competitiveness to the sales expansion. This study was conducted to reduce the risk and encourage implementation through feasibility analysis of overseas business of domestic OTT operators. The North American market was selected as a region with high potential through in-depth interviews with experts and literatures review. And it was confirmed that the partnership with local platform is effective. Then, the sales and input costs were estimated, and business was evaluated using the net present value method. Totally 18 scenarios were created using multiple estimates for copyright cost, subscribers, and rate, which are highly uncertain. From the analyses, 8 scenarios were found to be acceptable. And copyright cost has the greatest impact on business success, followed by rates and subscribers.

A Study on the Effect of the Urban Regeneration Project on the Reduction of Carbon Emission - A Case Study of Jeonju Test-Bed - (도시재생사업 적용에 따른 탄소저감 효과 - 전주TB지역을 대상으로 -)

  • Park, Kiyong;Lee, Sangeun;Park, Heekyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2016
  • This study mainly focuses on urban regeneration project as a countermeasure to resolve climate change issues by analyzing the carbon-reduction effect of Jeonju test-bed cases. First, an urban regeneration project is designed for city, Jeonju by analyzing its environmental problems and potential improvement. Then, carbon emission and reduction amounts are evaluated for different businesses and scenarios. Carbon emission sources are classified according to a standard suggested by IPCC, and the emissions are calculated by various standard methods. The result shows that carbon emission amount in Jeonju test-bed is 102,149 tCO2eq. The fact that 70% of the emission from energy sector originates from buildings implies that urban regeneration projects can concentrate on building portions to effectively reduce carbon emission. It is also projected carbon emission will decrease by 3,826tCo2eq in 2020 compared to 2011, reduction mainly based on overall population and industry shrinkage. When urban regeneration projects are applied to 5 urban sectors (urban environment, land use, green transportation, low carbon energy, and green buildings) total of 10,628tCO2eq is reduced and 4,857tCO2 (=15.47%) when only applied to the green building sector. Moreover, different carbon reduction scenarios are set up to meet each goal of different sectors. The result shows that scenario A, B, and C each has 5%, 11%, and 15% of carbon reduction, respectively. It is recommended to apply scenario B to achieve 11% reduction goal in a long term. Therefore, this research can be a valuable guideline for planning future urban regeneration projects and relative policies by analyzing the present urban issues and suggesting improvement directions.