Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.14249/eia.2017.26.6.479

The Optimal Energy Mix in South Korea's Electricity Sector for Low Carbon Energy Transition in 2030: In Consideration of INDC and Sequential Shutdown of Decrepit Nuclear Power Plants  

Kim, Dongyoon (KU-KIST GreenSchool, Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Korea University)
Hwang, Minsup (Department of Urban Management Research, The Seoul Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment / v.26, no.6, 2017 , pp. 479-494 More about this Journal
Abstract
After Fukushima incident, negative sentiment towards nuclear power has led to transition in policies that reduce the dependency on nuclear power in some countries. President Moon of Republic of Korea also announced a national plan of decommissioning retired nuclear power plants stage by stage. Therefore, nuclear power that once was considered the critical solution to energy security and climate change is now a limited option. This study aims to find an optimal energy mix in Korea's electricity system from 2016 through 2030 to combat climate change through energy transition with minimum cost. The study is divided into two different scenarios; energy transition and nuclear sustenance, to compare the total costs of the systems. Both scenarios show that electricity generated by wind technology increases from 2018 whereas that of photovoltaic(PV) increases from 2021. However, the total cost of the energy transition scenario was USD 4.7 billion more expensive than the nuclear sustenance scenario.
Keywords
Energy system modeling; energy transition; renewable energy; linear program; INDC;
Citations & Related Records
연도 인용수 순위
  • Reference
1 European Climate Foundation, Sodra, Sveaskog, Vattenfall. 2010. Biomass for heat and power: Opportunity and economics. Brussels: European Climate Foundation, Sodra. Sveaskog and Vattenfall.
2 Foley AM, O Gallachoir BP, Hur J, Baldick R, McKeogh EJ. 2010. A strategic review of electricity systems models. Energy. 35(12). 4522-4530.   DOI
3 Fraunhofer ISE (Institut fur Solare Energiesysteme). 2015. Current and future cost of photovoltaics, long-term scenarios for market development, system prices and LCOE of utility-scale PV systems, study on behalf of Agora Energiewende. Freiburg.
4 Fraunhofer ISE (Institut fur Solare Energiesysteme). 2016. ENTIGRIS-Europe/Germany: Power System Development. [cited 22 October 2017]. Available from: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/business-areas/energysystem-technology/energy-system- analysis/energy-system-models-at-fraunhofer-ise/entigris-europe-germany-power-systemdevelopment.html?wcmmode=disabled.
5 IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013. Technology roadmap: Wind energy. Paris.
6 IEA (International Energy Agency). 2015. Energy and climate change. Paris.
7 IEA (International Energy Agency). 2016. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Paris.
8 IEA, IRENA. 2012. Electricity storage technology brief. Paris.
9 Joint Ministry of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, Trade, Industry and Energy, Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, Strategy and Finance, Environment, Oceans and Fisheries, Health and Welfare, Science and ICT, Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Public Safety and Security, Korea Meteorological Administration. 2016, Dec. 6. The 1st basic plan for climate change. Sejong. [Korean Literature]
10 KEA (Korea Energy Agency). 2016. 2016 New & Renewable Energy White Paper. Yongin. [Korean Literature]
11 KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation). 2017. The Monthly Report on Major Electric Power Statistics 2016.12. Naju. [Korean Literature]
12 KEXIM (Export and Import Bank of Korea). 2017. Q1 2017 Solar industry trends. Seoul. [Korean Literature]
13 KPX (Korea Power Exchange). 2015. The 7th basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand (2015-2029). Naju. [Korean Literature]
14 KHNP (Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd.). 2016. Nuclear power white paper. Gyeongju. [Korean Literature]
15 KMOTIE (Korea Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy). 2016. Shutdown of 10 coal-fired plants aged 30 years or older. Sejong. [Korean Literature]
16 Kost C. 2015. Renewable energy in North Africa: Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment. PhD Thesis. Fakultt Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Technishen Universitat Dresden.
17 KPX (Korea Power Exchange). 2016. Power plant shutdown statistics. Naju. [Korean Literature]
18 Kreith F. 2014. Principles of sustainable energy systems. CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group Boca Raton, FL.
19 Kryzia D, Gawlik L. 2016. Forecasting the price of uranium based on the costs of uranium deposits exploitation. Mineral Resources Management; The Journal of Polish Academy of Sciences. 32(3). 93?110.
20 Kwon PS, Kim SJ. 2017. Scenario analysis for the achievement of the 2030 national greenhouse gas reduction goal in the Korean electricity sector. Journal of Environmental Policy and Administration. 25(2): 129-163. [Korean Literature]
21 Kwon SM, Jeon EC. 2016. A study on GHG emissions reduction and the social costs of the ‘Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand'. Journal of Environmental Policy and Administration. 24(4): 69-87. [Korean Literature]   DOI
22 Palzer A, Henning H. 2014. A Future German energy system with a dominating contribution from renewable energies: A holistic model based on hourly simulation. Energy Technology. 2: 13-28.   DOI
23 Luderer G, Leimbach M, Bauer N, Kriegler E, Baumstark L, Bertram C, Giannousakis A, Hilaire J, Klein D, Levesque A, Mouratiadou I, Pehl M, Pietzcker R, Piontek F, Roming N, Schultes A, Schwanitz VJ, Strefler J. 2015. Description of the REMIND model (Version 1.6). [cited 07 November 2017]. Available from SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2697070.
24 NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory). 2016. Distributed Generation Renewable Energy Estimate of Costs. [cited 22 October 2017]. Available from: https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe_re_cost_est.html.
25 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). Electricity generation (indicator). doi: 10.1787/c6e6caa2-en. [cited 22 October 2017]. Available from: https://data.oecd.org/energy/electricity-generation.htm.
26 Pfenninger S, Hawkes A, Keirstead J. 2014. Energy systems modeling for twenty-first century energy challenges. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 33: 74-86   DOI
27 Pidd H. 2011, May 30. Germany to shut all nuclear reactors. The Guardian. [cited 22 October 2017]. Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/may/30/germany-to-shut-nuclear-reactors.
28 Schmid E, Knopf B, Bauer N. 2012. "REMINDD: A hybrid energy-economy model of Germany". Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Note di Lavoro.
29 UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). 2015. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC): Submission by the Republic of Korea on June 30.
30 The Minjoo Party of Korea Policy Committee. 2017, July 31. Result on government-ruling party consultation on nuclear phase-out policy and following main energy issues. Seoul. [Korean Literature]
31 World Bank. 2017. World Bank commodities price forecast. Washington DC: The World Bank.
32 World Nuclear Association. Nuclear power in Taiwan. 2017a. [cited 22 October 2017]. Available from: http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/nuclear-power-in-taiwan.aspx.
33 World Nuclear Association. Nuclear power in France. 2017b. [cited 22 October 2017]. Available from: http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx.
34 EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). 2017, July 6. Monthly renewable electricity generation surpasses nuclear for the first time since 1984. [cited 22 October 2017]. Available from: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31932.
35 United Kingdom Environment Agency. 2009. Minimising greenhouse gas emissions from biomass energy generation. Bristol.
36 Connolly D, Lund H, Mathiesen BV, Leahy M. 2010. A review of computer tools for analyzing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems. Applied Energy. 87(4): 1059-1082.   DOI
37 DOE (U.S. Department of Energy). 2016a. The SunShot initiative's 2030 goal: 3c per kilowatt hour for solar electricity. Washington DC: U.S. Department of Energy.
38 DOE (U.S. Department of Energy). 2016b. DOE global energy storage database status operational. [cited 22 October 2017]. Available from: http://www.energystora geexchange.org/projects/data_visualization.
39 EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). 2016. Capital cost estimates for utility scale electricity generating plants. Washington DC: U.S. Department of Energy.
40 EPSIS (Electric Power Statistics Information System). Fuel cost. [cited 22 October 2017]. Available from: http://epsis.kpx.or.kr/epsisnew/selectEkmaFucUpfGrid.do?menuId=050101. [Korean Literature]