• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수치 추론

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Bayesian Approach for Software Reliability Models (소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 대한 베이지안 접근)

  • Choi, Ki-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 1999
  • A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is developed to compute the software reliability model. We consider computation problem for determining of posterior distibution in Bayseian inference. Metropolis algorithms along with Gibbs sampling are proposed to preform the Bayesian inference of the Mixed model with record value statistics. For model determiniation, we explored the prequential conditional predictive ordinate criterion that selects the best model with the largest posterior likelihood among models using all possible subsets of the component intensity functions. To relax the monotonic intensity function assumptions. A numerical example with simulated data set is given.

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Successive Optimization of Information Granules-based Fuzzy Neural Networks (정보 입자 기반 퍼지 뉴럴 네트워크의 연속적 최적화)

  • Park, Keon-Jun;Oh, Sung-Kwun;Kim, Hyun-Ki
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.07a
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    • pp.1815-1816
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    • 2007
  • 본 논문에서는 데이터의 특성을 이용한 정보 입자 기반 퍼지 뉴럴 네트워크의 연속적 최적화를 제안한다. 데이터들간의 거리를 중심으로 C-Means 클러스터링 알고리즘을 이용하여 멤버쉽 함수를 정의하고 각 중심의 후반부 중심값을 이용하여 후반부 학습에 적용한다. 구조/파라미터 동정에 있어서 실수 코딩 기반 유전자 알고리즘을 이용하여 입력변수의 수, 입력 변수의 선택, 멤버쉽함수의 수, 후반부 형태와 같은 시스템의 입력 구조와 전반부 멤버쉽함수의 정점 및 학습율과 모멘텀 계수와 같은 파라미터를 최적으로 동정한다. 또한, 구조 연산과 파라미터 연산의 연속적 동조 방법을 이용하여 퍼지 뉴럴 네트워크를 최적화한다. 제안된 퍼지 뉴럴 네트워크는 삼각형 멤버쉽 함수를 이용하며, 후반부 추론에는 간략, 선형, 변형된 2차식을 이용한다. 제안된 퍼지 뉴럴 네트워크는 표준 모델로서 널리 사용되는 수치적인 예를 통하여 평가한다.

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Approximate confidence intervals about quantiles in the generalized gamma distribution (일반화 감마분포의 백분위수에 대한 근사신뢰구간)

  • 나종화
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.435-442
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    • 1993
  • For the generalized gamma distribution, exact inferences about quantiles need many computations involving complicated numerical integrations. This paper suggests approximate confidence intervals which are easily obtained by considering the alternative location-scale model. Also, these intervals are very accurate even for small sample size. Approximate confidence intervals about quantiles in the lognormal distribution are also considered. With type 2 censoring data, approximate confidence intervals can also be obtained directly by the suggested methods.

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A Study on Fluid Thansient Accommpanying Cilumn Separation in Oil Hydraulic Pipeline -Investigation on Two-Step Pressure Rise (유압 관로계에서 액주분리를 수반하는 유체과도현상에 관한 연구 -2단입력 상승현상에 관하여-)

  • 염만오;이진걸;이일영;김현기
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.984-991
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    • 1988
  • Liquid column separation occurs when the valve on the pipeline is closed rapidly in an oil hydraulic system. In this case two-step pressure rise is sometimes observed in a comparatively short pipeline. In this study the two-step pressure rise phenomenon was investigated experimentally and theoretically. The experiments showed that maximum pressure values during two-step pressure rise might exceed extremely the values computed by the theory of rigid-liquid-column separation. So the two-step pressure rise phenomenon appears one of important factors of pipe strength design. From the theoretical considerations based on the experimental and numerical results, the mechanism of two-step pressure rise phenomenon could be explained clearly.

Human Motion Recognition using Fuzzy Inference System (인체동작구분 퍼지추론시스템)

  • Jin, Gye-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Bock
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.722-727
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    • 2009
  • The technology of distinguishing human motion states is required in the areas of measuring and analyzing biosignals changing according to physical activities, diagnosing sleep disorder, screening the effect of treatment, examining chronic patients' kinetic state, prescribing exercise therapy, etc. The present study implemented a fuzzy inference system based on fuzzy rules that distinguish human motion states (tying, sitting, walking, and running) by acquiring and processing data of LAA, TAA, L-MAD, and T-MAD using ADXL202AE of Analog Devices embedded in an armband. The membership degree and fuzzy rules in each area of input (LAA, TAA, L-MAD, and T-MAD) and output (tying, sitting, walking, and running) data used here were determined using numeric data obtained from experiment. In the results of analyzing data for simulation generated in order of tying$\rightarrow$walking$\rightarrow$running$\rightarrow$tying, the sorting rate for motion states tying, sitting, walking, and running was 100% for each motion.

Comparison of System Call Sequence Embedding Approaches for Anomaly Detection (이상 탐지를 위한 시스템콜 시퀀스 임베딩 접근 방식 비교)

  • Lee, Keun-Seop;Park, Kyungseon;Kim, Kangseok
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.47-53
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    • 2022
  • Recently, with the change of the intelligent security paradigm, study to apply various information generated from various information security systems to AI-based anomaly detection is increasing. Therefore, in this study, in order to convert log-like time series data into a vector, which is a numerical feature, the CBOW and Skip-gram inference methods of deep learning-based Word2Vec model and statistical method based on the coincidence frequency were used to transform the published ADFA system call data. In relation to this, an experiment was carried out through conversion into various embedding vectors considering the dimension of vector, the length of sequence, and the window size. In addition, the performance of the embedding methods used as well as the detection performance were compared and evaluated through GRU-based anomaly detection model using vectors generated by the embedding model as an input. Compared to the statistical model, it was confirmed that the Skip-gram maintains more stable performance without biasing a specific window size or sequence length, and is more effective in making each event of sequence data into an embedding vector.

Is Radar Rainfall Acceptable to Hydrologic Application? (레이더 강우가 수문모형의 적용에 적합한가?)

  • Lee, K.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.200-203
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    • 2006
  • 지역의 공간 분포가 내포된 고해상도의 지상강우량을 추정하기 위해서 강수와 구름 입자(고체와 액체)의 양과 성질을 반영한 기상레이더의 반사도(reflectivity) 자료로부터 지상강우강도로 환산하는 방법이 널리 이용된다. 반사도 (reflectivity) 자료로부터 지상강우강도로 환산하는 핵심은 Z-R 관계식으로, 이 Z-R 관계식의 매개변수 a와 b의 결정이 중요하다. 그러나, 지상우량 관측소에서 측정되는 강우량 자료는 지상에서 관측된 강우자료이나, 레이더에서 추정되는 강우량은 상공 (이 연구에서는1.5km)에서 관측한 반사도로 추정되는 값으로 이에 상응하는 오차를 줄이기 위하여 보정하는 기법이 이용된다. 수계내의 정확한 유출량을 모의계산하기 위하여 수문수치모형이 이용되며, 이의 보다 정확한 수치결과를 모의하기 위해서 레이더 강우추정을 사용하여 정확도를 높이고자 하는 연구가 진행 중이다. 이 연구에서는 기상청에서 운영하는 레이더 반사도 자료를 사용하여 용담/남강유역 내에서 2002-2004년의 집중호우에 대해 Z-R 관계식을 추정하고, 유역 내 평균 강우량과 지상관측 강우량의 비 (G-R비)를 이용한 공간적 특성을 고려한 보정을 함으로써 추정된 평균 강우량의 정확도를 향상시켰다. 이렇게 추정된 레이더 강우는 지상관측지점 강우만으로 보간 된 강우(gauge-only interpolation)와 비교 되어, 레이더강우의 정확성과 적용성이 수문모형에 적합한가를 평가해 보았다. 공간적 분포의 특성을 내포하며 강우예측 (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting)에 이용될 수 있다는 잇점은 있으나, 레이더 강우 추정은 정확성과 적용성에 많은 의문점을 남긴다.리 전도도 값을 Gardner 식에 적용하여 1, 3, 5, 7kPa에서의 불포화수리 전도도 값을 17개 토양통을 대상으로 하여 구했다. 토양수분 potential이 3kPa에서는 물의 이동이 거의 없는 토양들이 있었는데 반해 남계통을 비롯한 학곡통, 회곡통, 백산통, 상주통, 석천통, 예산통 등 7개의 토양은 3kPa에서도 약간의 물의 이동이 있었다. 이는 모암이 화강 편마암인 관계로 토양 내에 물의 이동에 영향을 미치는 자갈의 함량이 높았기 때문일 것으로 생각되고 추후의 연구에서는 이 부분에 대한 내용도 검토되어야 할 것이다. 또한, 1kPa에서 물의 이동은 삼각통에서 35.21 cm/day로 이동 속도가 가장 컸으며 그 뒤로 예산통, 화봉통, 학곡통, 백산통 등이 토양에서 빠른 속도로 이동하였다. 가천통이나 석천통 및 우곡통은 1kPa에서의 이동 속도가 아주 느린 토양으로 판단되었다. 또한, 포화되지 않은 상태인 1kPa에서 물의 이동 속도를 VGM 모형에 의해 예측된 값과 측정된 값으로 비교하였을 때 불포화 수리 전도도가 예측되지 않은 토양(석천통, 지곡통, 풍천통)이 존재하여 불포화 수리 전도도 특성평가에 대한 VGM 모형의 적용성에 문제를 보였다. 이는 결과적으로 논이라는 영농형태가 존재하는 우리나라에서 토양의 수리적 특성해석을 위한 VGM 모형의 적용성에 한계가 있을 것으로 판단되었다.4일간의 기상변화가 자발성 기흉 발생에 영향을 미친다고 추론할 수 있었다. 향후 본 연구에서 추론된 기상변화와 기흉 발생과의 인과관계를 확인하고 좀 더 구체화하기 위한 연구가 필요할 것이다.게 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.는 초과수익률이 상승하지만, 이후로는 감소하므로, 반전거래전략을 활용하는

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Investigation of Characteristics of Rip Current at Haeundae Beach based on Observation Analysis and Numerical Experiments (관측자료 분석과 수치모의에 의한 해운대 이안류 발생 특성 연구)

  • Yoon, Sung Bum;Kwon, Seok Jae;Bae, Jae Soek;Choi, Junwoo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.4B
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    • pp.243-251
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    • 2012
  • To investigate the characteristics of rip current occurring at Haeundae beach, observations obtained from a buoy and a CCTV were analyzed and numerical experiments were conducted. During observed rip-current events, the CCTV images showed that a couple of wave-trains, which are close to regular waves with slightly different directions, propagated to the beach, and wavelet analyses of data from the buoy showed very narrow-banded spectra with a peak frequency. From the evidences, it was inferred that a known mechanism of generating rip current due to the nodal line area of honeycomb-patterned wave crest was one of the significant factors of rip current occurrences of Haeundae beach. The mechanism has been explained by the following: When two wave-trains with slightly different directions propagate to a beach, wave crests of the incident wave-trains form honeycomb pattern due to nonlinear interaction. The nodal lines of honeycomb pattern are developed in the cross-shore direction. And longshore currents flow toward the nodal line area which has very low wave energy. Consequently their mass flux is expelled through the area toward the sea direction. To confirm the generation, numerical experiments were performed using a nonlinear Boussinesq equation model. In the cases with two incident wave-trains with slightly different directions and with a monochromatic wave propagating over a submerged shoal, it was seen that the honeycomb pattern of wave crests was well developed, and thus rip currents were evolved along the nodal lines.

Reconsideration of Teaching Addition and Subtraction of Fractions with Different Denominators: Focused on Quantitative Reasoning with Unit and Recursive Partitioning (이분모분수의 덧셈과 뺄셈 교육 재고 - 단위 추론 및 재귀적 분할을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Jiyoung;Pang, JeongSuk
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.625-645
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    • 2016
  • This study clarified the big ideas related to teaching addition and subtraction of fractions with different denominators based on quantitative reasoning with unit and recursive partitioning. An analysis of this study urged us to re-consider the content related to the addition and subtraction of fraction. As such, this study analyzed textbooks and teachers' manuals developed from the fourth national mathematics curriculum to the most recent 2009 curriculum. In addition and subtraction of fractions with different denominators, it must be emphasized the followings: three-levels unit structure, fixed whole unit, necessity of common measure and recursive partitioning. An analysis of this study showed that textbooks and teachers' manuals dealt with the fact of maintaining a fixed whole unit only as being implicit. The textbooks described the reason why we need to create a common denominator in connection with the addition of similar fractions. The textbooks displayed a common denominator numerically rather than using a recursive partitioning method. Given this, it is difficult for students to connect the models and algorithms. Building on these results, this study is expected to suggest specific implications which may be taken into account in developing new instructional materials in process.

Quantitative assessment of spalling depth and width using statistical inference theory in underground openings (통계추론을 이용한 지하암반공동에서의 스폴링 깊이와 폭에 대한 정량적 평가)

  • Bang, Joon-Ho;Lee, In-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2010
  • Until now, the evaluation method of spalling depth using Martin et al. (1999)'s linear regression relations has long been known applicable. However, it is not likely that the proposed equation is applicable to the openings other than circular type and mostly overpredict the spalling depth in comparison with actual spalling cases. Moreover, the evaluation method to estimate the spalling width has not been presented yet; it is essential to evaluate the spalling width in addition to the spalling depth, because the shape of the spalled region influences the choice of suitable rock reinforcement. In this study, linear regression equations, in which normalized spalling depth ($d_f/W_D$) and normalized spalling width ($w_f/W_D$) are functions of three spalling evaluation indices, ${\sigma}_1/{\sigma}_c,\;D_{is}(={\sigma}_{max}/{\sigma}_c)$ and ${\sigma}_{dev}/{\sigma}_{cm}$, are established based on in-situ spalling observations and CWFS simulation results. Confidence intervals of 95% using the statistical inference theory are used in verifying the reliability of linear regression equations. Spalling depth ($d_f$) and spalling width ($w_f$) predicted from the proposed linear regression relations, which take three spalling evaluation indices into account, showed reasonable match with in-situ observations by adopting weighting factors considering the degree of variance of linear regression relations.