• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.239-245
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• 2023

This study examined the impact of geopolitical risk on port throughput in Korea. With a high trade-to-GDP ratio, Korea has an open economy. The vast majority of its exports and imports are serviced by maritime transport. Therefore, cargo volume of Korean seaports is highly likely to be affected by changes in global economy resulting from escalation in geopolitical risk. In this regard, this study investigated the relationship between geopolitical risk and port throughput in Korea during the period of 1995-2022. Results indicated that the impact of geopolitical risk on port throughput was not statistically significant. However, the relationship varied by export, import, and ports. Especially, it was revealed that cargo volume of Korean ports was negatively associated with the level of geopolitical risk. In addition, it was also found that geopolitical risk had a negative impact on the unit price of Korean import..

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.79-96
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• 2006

In this paper, using the gravity model, I examined that the port traffic in the port of Pusan have been influenced by GDP of South Korea, GDP of trading countries, an agreement on maritime transport, maritime transport charge and the local economic integration, etc. In view of the policy implication based on the result of analysis by the gravity model, the port traffic and the transshipment in the port of Pusan is positively influenced by GDP of South Korea, GDP of trading countries and countries on the way of main sea route(LINE). But it is negatively influenced by maritime transport charge. Especially, when a maritime transport charge goes up 1 percentage point, it is estimated that a transshipment decreases about 0.586-0.895 percentage point. So, a maritime transport charge was found to have more effect on a transshipment than a port traffic(except transshipment).

• 해운
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• no.8 s.19
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• pp.42-42
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• 2005

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.131-146
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to predict the railway cargo volume on Busan new-port and north-port, in order to revitalize railway transport. This paper is organized as follows. Section 1 presents the description of the objective and methods on this study. Section 2 presents the status of Railway Cargo volumes and Construction plan of railway facilities in Busan New port. Section 3 presents the Forecast Railway Cargo volume using a volume ratio, actual volume records and another predicted datas. Section 4 summarizes our conclusions and further research topics. Especially, korea faces enforcement of green Logistics policy. Modal shift to trail freight transportation is one of ways, but there are no more detail plans. so it need that a cooperation system in government department, a indirect subside policy shift to rail freight transportation from trucking for revitalization of Railway Freight transportation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.1-9
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• 1997

우리나라는 세계 12위 무역국으로 수출입 물동량의 99.7%가 항만을 통해 처리되고 있어 항만물동량은 매년 12%이상 급증하고 있으나, 항만시설 확보율이 '80년대 이후 갈수록 떨어져 '96년도에는 65%에 불과하게 되어 시설부족이 매우 심각한 실정에 이르렀으며, 항만적체에 따른 수출입 상품의 적기수송 차질과 물류비의 증가로 인하여 가뜩이나 어려운 우리경제에 있어 경쟁력 약화의 주요 원인이 되고 있다. (중략)

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.44-52
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• 2020

More accurate forecasting of port cargo in the global long-term recession is critical for the implementation of port policy. In this study, the Busan Port container volume (export cargo and transshipment cargo) was estimated using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model considering the causal relationship between the economic scale (GDP) of Korea, China, and the U.S. as well as ARIMA, a single volume model. The measurement data was the monthly volume of container shipments at the Busan port J anuary 2014-August 2019. According to the analysis, the time series of import and export volume was estimated by VAR because it was relatively stable, and transshipment cargo was non-stationary, but it has cointegration relationship (long-term equilibrium) with economic scale, interest rate, and economic fluctuation, so estimated by the VEC model. The estimation results show that ARIMA is superior in the stationary time-series data (local cargo) and transshipment cargo with a trend are more predictable in estimating by the multivariate model, the VEC model. Import-export cargo, in particular, is closely related to the size of our country's economy, and transshipment cargo is closely related to the size of the Chinese and American economies. It also suggests a strategy to increase transshipment cargo as the size of China's economy appears to be closer than that of the U.S.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2014.06a
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• pp.175-177
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• 2014

본 연구는 부산항에서 차지하는 환적물동량의 위상을 고려하여 환적화물에 대한 정확한 예측을 위한 모델을 수립하는데 그 목적이 있다. 환적물량을 결정짓는 요소로는 부산항의 경쟁력 뿐 아니라 중국 등의 수출입 물동량 증가량과 중국항만의 경쟁력도 중요요소이며, 이들 요소들이 상호간에 영향을 주고 받음에 따라 그러한 순환적 인과관계 분석에 적합한 시스템 다이내믹스(SD) 기법을 활용하여 환적화물에 대한 예측을 시도해 보고자 한다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.241-260
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• 2011

This paper qualitatively describes logistics behaviors of 113 companies located in Daegu-Gyeongbuk by considering various characteristics such as business location, trade volume, cargo types and the possession of company's own warehouse. A logit model is developed to investigate how predictor variables affect these companies' inclination of utilizing Third Party Logistics Provider(3PL). The estimation results of 102 effective data points show that among the four predictors the location of company's HQs (HQADD) and trade volume (TRDTEU) significantly increase company's tendency towards utilizing 3PL while the remaining two variables (BULK, WAREHS) imparting statistically insignificant influence. The results indicate that those companies located outside the region tend to implement a strategy of using more 3PL and also that the larger the trade volume of the company the more 3PL the company uses to improve the efficiency in logistics.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.193-207
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• 2012

The of purpose of this study is to predict export and import container volumes using a Decision Tree analysis. Factors which can influence the volume of container cargo are selected as independent variables; producer price index, consumer price index, index of export volume, index of import volume, index of industrial production, and exchange rate(won/dollar). The period of analysis is from january 2002 to December 2011 and monthly data are used. In this study, CRT(Classification and Regression Trees) algorithm is used. The main findings are summarized as followings. First, when index of export volume is larger than 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 858,19TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 115.90 and 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 716,582TEU. Second, when index of import volume is larger than 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 869,227TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 116.20 and 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 738,724TEU.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.36 no.6
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• pp.521-526
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• 2012

More efficient and effective volume management of trade cargo is recently requested due to FTA with foreign country. Above all, the grain is the main cargo needed in Korean food life and was appointed as the core trade cargo during FTA. This study is aimed to forecast future demands of grain volumes which are handled at Incheon port because most of the grain volumes are traded at Incheon port in Korea. System Dynamics (SD) was used for forecasting as the methodology. Also, population, yearly grain consumption per a man, GDP, GRDP, exchange rate, and BDI were used as the factors that influence grain volumes. Simulation duration was from 2000 to 2020 and real data was used from 2000 to 2007. According to the simulation, 2020's grain volumes at Incheon port were forecasted to be about 2 million tons and grain volumes handled at Incheon port were continuously reduced. In order to measure accuracy of the simulation, this study implemented MAPE analysis. And after the implementation, the simulation was decided as a much more accurate model because MAPE value was calculated to be 6.3%. This study respectively examined factors using the sensitivity analysis. As a result, in terms of the effects on grain volume in Incheon Port, the population factor is most significant and exchange rate factor is the least.