• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실도 분석

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A Proposal for Korean armed forces preparing toward Future war: Examine the U.S. 'Mosaic Warfare' Concept (미래전을 대비한 한국군 발전방향 제언: 미국의 모자이크전 수행개념 고찰을 통하여)

  • Chang, Jin O;Jung, Jae-young
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.215-240
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    • 2020
  • In 2017, the U.S. DARPA coined 'mosaic warfare' as a new way of warfighting. According to the Timothy Grayson, director of DARPA's Strategic Technologies Office, mosaic warfare is a "system of system" approach to warfghting designed around compatible "tiles" of capabilities, rather than uniquely shaped "puzzle pieces" that must be fitted into a specific slot in a battle plan in order for it to work. Prior to cover mosaic warfare theory and recent development, it deals analyze its background and several premises for better understanding. The U.S. DoD officials might acknowledge the current its forces vulnerability to the China's A2/AD assets. Furthermore, the U.S. seeks to complete military superiority even in other nation's territorial domains including sea and air. Given its rapid combat restoration capability and less manpower casualty, the U.S. would be able to ready to endure war of attrition that requires massive resources. The core concept of mosaic warfare is a "decision centric warfare". To embody this idea, it create adaptability for U.S. forces and complexity or uncertainty for the enemy through the rapid composition and recomposition of a more disag g reg ated U.S. military force using human command and machine control. This allows providing more options to friendly forces and collapse adversary's OODA loop eventually. Adaptable kill web, composable force packages, A.I., and context-centric C3 architecture are crucial elements to implement and carry out mosaic warfare. Recently, CSBA showed an compelling assessment of mosaic warfare simulation. In this wargame, there was a significant differences between traditional and mosaic teams. Mosaic team was able to mount more simultaneous actions, creating additional complexity to adversaries and overwhelming their decision-making with less friendly force's human casualty. It increase the speed of the U.S. force's decision-making, enabling commanders to better employ tempo. Consequently, this article finds out and suggests implications for Korea armed forces. First of all, it needs to examine and develop 'mosaic warfare' in terms of our security circumstance. In response to future warfare, reviewing overall force structure and architecture is required which is able to compose force element regardless domain. In regards to insufficient defense resources and budget, "choice" and "concentration" are also essential. It needs to have eyes on the neighboring countries' development of future war concept carefully.

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Investigation of the Effect of Calculation Method of Offset Correction Factor on the GEMS Sulfur Dioxide Retrieval Algorithm (GEMS 이산화황 산출 현업 알고리즘에서 오프셋 보정 계수 산정 방법에 대한 영향 조사)

  • Park, Jeonghyeon;Yang, Jiwon;Choi, Wonei;Kim, Serin;Lee, Hanlim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2022
  • In this present study, we investigated the effect of the offset correction factor calculation method on the sulfur dioxide (SO2) column density in the SO2 retrieval algorithm of the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) launched in February 2020. The GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm is the Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Hybrid algorithm. In the GEMS Hybrid algorithm, the offset correction process is essential to correct the absorption effect of ozone appearing in the SO2 slant column density (SCD) obtained after spectral fitting using DOAS. Since the SO2 column density may depend on the conditions for calculating the offset correction factor, it is necessary to apply an appropriate offset correction value. In this present study, the offset correction values were calculated for days with many cloud pixels and few cloud pixels, respectively. And a comparison of the SO2 column density retrieved by applying each offset correction factor to the GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm was performed. When the offset correction value was calculated using radiance data of GEMS on a day with many cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density around India and the Korean Peninsula, which are the edges of the GEMS observation area, was 1.27 DU, and 0.58 DU, respectively. And around Hong Kong, where there were many cloud pixels, the SO2 standard deviation was 0.77 DU. On the other hand, when the offset correction value calculated using the GEMS data on the day with few cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density slightly decreased around India (0.72 DU), Korean Peninsula (0.38 DU), and Hong Kong (0.44 DU). We found that the SO2 retrieval was relatively stable compared to the SO2 retrieval case using the offset correction value on the day with many cloud pixels. Accordingly, to minimize the uncertainty of the GEMS SO2 retrieval algorithm and to obtain a stable retrieval, it is necessary to calculate the offset correction factor under appropriate conditions.

The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.

The Family and Individual in the Transmedia Storytelling of Young Adult Narratives (청소년서사의 트랜스미디어 스토리텔링에 나타나는 가족과 개인)

  • Chung, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.215-262
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    • 2021
  • This thesis focuses on Wandeuki and Elegant Lies - novels written by Kim Ryeo-reong and adapted into the film by Director Lee Han; this thesis analyzes the process of storytelling being transformed as the media is converted. Also, this thesis discusses cultural-political implications of transmedia storytelling where different narrative responses coexist concerning post-IMF family disorganization and "individualization." First of all, this thesis critically reviews existing discourses on the concept of transmedia storytelling and refers to 'transfictionality' the narratological concept of Marie-Laure Ryan in order to look into media conversion storytelling that starts from original novels. The novels Wandeuki and Elegant Lies show two aspects of "individualization" that adopts existential conditions of family disorganization. Wandeuki deviates from patriarchal family romance through self-discovery and exhibits loose family bond, which is something similar to companionship of close individuals. Elegant Lies shows individualization of pain by portraying a teenager who found herself completely isolated, while showing that it is impossible for the people left behind to mourn. On the other hand, director Lee Han's films and show stories in which family members, who are confronting family dissolution, rediscover and restore their families against family dissolution. The film promotes the expansion of family community through multicultural identity, and the film completes condolence of the people left behind by having the remaining families survive as survivors of suicide. The storyworld of the novels puts emphasis on 'self-discovery' of individual adolescents, while the storyworld of the movies puts emphasis on 'rediscovery of family'. Through transformation of storytelling - especially the redesigning of narrative structures called "modification" - transmedia storytelling shows that the relationship between media-converted texts is far from "faithful representation," but rather, shows conflicting themes and perspectives. With a reference point of 'the emergence of character' transmedia storytelling, which is predicated on the original work but aims to free itself from the original work by transforming storytelling through media conversion, opens up polyphonic storyworld by creating heterogeneous voices. In the post IMF-era, where uncertainty mounts over family dissolution and individualization, polyphonic storyworld created by transmedia storytelling provides an opportunity to experience disparate desires over individual freedom/risk and complacency toward community. We can call this the cultural-political implication of transmedia storytelling based on transferring, transcednding, and transforming.

Reliability Analysis on Stability of Armor Units for Foundation Mound of Composite Breakwaters (혼성제 기초 마운드의 피복재 안정성에 대한 신뢰성 해석)

  • Cheol-Eung Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2023
  • Probabilistic and deterministic analyses are implemented for the armor units of rubble foundation mound of composite breakwaters which is needed to protect the upright section against the scour of foundation mounds. By a little modification and incorporation of the previous empirical formulas that has commonly been applied to design the armor units of foundation mound, a new type formula of stability number has been suggested which is capable of taking into account slopes of foundation mounds, damage ratios of armor units, and incident wave numbers. The new proposed formula becomes mathematically identical with the previous empirical formula under the same conditions used in the developing process. Deterministic design have first been carried out to evaluate the minimum weights of armor units for several conditions associated with a typical section of composite breakwater. When the slopes of foundation mound become steepening and the incident wave numbers are increasing, the bigger armor units more than those from the previous empirical formula should be required. The opposite trends however are shown if the damage ratios is much more allowed. Meanwhile, the reliability analysis, which is one of probabilistic models, has been performed in order to quantitatively verify how the armor unit resulted from the deterministic design is stable. It has been confirmed that 1.2% of annual encounter probability of failure has been evaluated under the condition of 1% damage ratio of armor units for the design wave of 50 years return period. By additionally calculating the influence factors of the related random variables on the failure probability due to those uncertainties, it has been found that Hudson's stability coefficient, significant wave height, and water depth above foundation mound have sequentially been given the impacts on failure regardless of the incident wave angles. Finally, sensitivity analysis has been interpreted with respect to the variations of random variables which are implicitly involved in the formula of stability number for armor units of foundation mound. Then, the probability of failure have been rapidly decreased as the water depth above foundation mound are deepening. However, it has been shown that the probability of failure have been increased according as the berm width of foundation mound are widening and wave periods become shortening.

Melodrama, the Paradox of Modern Imagination Coordinating Moral Norms and Emotions -Based on the Developmental Approach (멜로드라마, 도덕규범과 감정을 조율하는 근대적 상상력의 역설 -발생론적 접근을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jung-Oak
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.9-54
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    • 2019
  • Since the birth of melodrama in the early Enlightenment era, it has flowed through various cultures and media. In order to grasp the principle of differentiation of melodrama and the direction of its change, a developmental approach to the formation process of melodrama is necessary. In this regard, this paper examines the formation process of modern melodrama and its aesthetic features around the time of the French Revolution. The modern melodrama was formed in the period between the end of the 18th century and the start of the 19th century. It was born at the intersectional point of the contradictions of the modern imagination and the political paradox of the French Revolution, which demanded an autonomous citizenship but did not recognize a woman as a citizen. The aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears reproduced in the modern melodrama is a political aspiration to restore a corrupt society by glamorizing a woman as a moral icon. This was an icon to save a society under divide and crisis and a coordination of emotions to conceal sexist violence in the politics of the exclusion of women. The aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears reproduced in modern melodrama has consistently been considered under negative evaluation such as a play of moral hypocrisy and vulgar drama. However, the academic interest in melodrama in the 1970s has been amplified due to the "Sirk-melo" which is a transition to the new aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears, encompassing not only women, but also races and classes. In modern society, entering the era of uncertainty, where various social problems, national disasters, and global disasters have become commonplace, 'the aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears' are shifting from gender differences to various victim narratives. Reviewing new theoretical trends and changes of recent melodrama as well as analyzing specific works are left as follow-up tasks.Since the birth of the melodrama in the early Enlightenment era, it has flowed through various cultures and media. In order to grasp the principle of differentiation of melodrama and the direction of its change, a developmental approach to the formation process of melodrama is basically necessary. In this regard, this paper examines the formation process of modern melodrama and its aesthetic features around the time of the French Revolution.

Nuclear Weapons and Extended Deterrence in the U.S.-ROK Alliance (핵무기와 한·미 핵 확장억제 능력)

  • Huntley, Wade L.
    • Strategy21
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    • s.34
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    • pp.236-261
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    • 2014
  • The future role of nuclear extended deterrence in the security alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea is currently a central concern. The gradually lessening role of reliance on nuclear weapons in US security policies broadly, combined with increasing North Korean nuclear capabilities and belligerence, raise fresh questions about the sufficiency of the "nuclear umbrella" as a pillar of the US-ROK defense posture. This article addresses the current and future role of nuclear extended deterrence in Korea in this dynamic context. The article reviews the longstanding trend toward reducing the overall size of the US nuclear arsenal, and assesses developments in US-ROK outlooks toward extended deterrence in response to the Obama administration's nuclear policies and North Korea's recent smaller-scale aggressions. The analysis finds that the challenges of deterrence credibility and allied reassurance are difficult and long-term. The analysis explains how these challenges emerge less from a shrinking US numerical arsenal size than from the sufficiency of specific nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to meet emerging smaller-scale threats. The analysis also highlights the importance of broader strategic and political interaction in sustaining allied confidence in any joint security posture. The evaluation concludes that a strong US-ROK alliance relationship can be maintained while the size of the US nuclear arsenal continues to decline, in part because nuclear weapons in any deployment configuration are relatively ineffective means for deterring smaller-scale aggression. Nevertheless, continuing adjustment of the US-ROK extended deterrence posture to the evolving, complex and uncertain Korean peninsula security environment will remain an ongoing challenge. Finally, the article encourages further examination of the potential specific role ROK maritime forces might serve in enhancing deterrence of smaller-scale threats while minimizing risks of conflict escalation.

The Effect of Consumers' Value Motives on the Perception of Blog Reviews Credibility: the Moderation Effect of Tie Strength (소비자의 가치 추구 동인이 블로그 리뷰의 신뢰성 지각에 미치는 영향: 유대강도에 따른 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Chu, Wujin;Roh, Min Jung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.159-189
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    • 2012
  • What attracts consumers to bloggers' reviews? Consumers would be attracted both by the Bloggers' expertise (i.e., knowledge and experience) and by his/her unbiased manner of delivering information. Expertise and trustworthiness are both virtues of information sources, particularly when there is uncertainty in decision-making. Noting this point, we postulate that consumers' motives determine the relative weights they place on expertise and trustworthiness. In addition, our hypotheses assume that tie strength moderates consumers' expectation on bloggers' expertise and trustworthiness: with expectation on expertise enhanced for power-blog user-group (weak-ties), and an expectation on trustworthiness elevated for personal-blog user-group (strong-ties). Finally, we theorize that the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review is moderated by tie strength; the predictive power of credibility is more prominent for the personal-blog user-groups than for the power-blog user groups. To support these assumptions, we conducted a field survey with blog users, collecting retrospective self-report data. The "gourmet shop" was chosen as a target product category, and obtained data analyzed by structural equations modeling. Findings from these data provide empirical support for our theoretical predictions. First, we found that the purposive motive aimed at satisfying instrumental information needs increases reliance on bloggers' expertise, but interpersonal connectivity value for alleviating loneliness elevates reliance on bloggers' trustworthiness. Second, expertise-based credibility is more prominent for power-blog user-groups than for personal-blog user-groups. While strong ties attract consumers with trustworthiness based on close emotional bonds, weak ties gain consumers' attention with new, non-redundant information (Levin & Cross, 2004). Thus, when the existing knowledge system, used in strong ties, does not work as smoothly for addressing an impending problem, the weak-tie source can be utilized as a handy reference. Thus, we can anticipate that power bloggers secure credibility by virtue of their expertise while personal bloggers trade off on their trustworthiness. Our analysis demonstrates that power bloggers appeal more strongly to consumers than do personal bloggers in the area of expertise-based credibility. Finally, the effect of review credibility on willingness to accept a review is higher for the personal-blog user-group than for the power-blog user-group. Actually, the inference that review credibility is a potent predictor of assessing willingness to accept a review is grounded on the analogy that attitude is an effective indicator of purchase intention. However, if memory about established attitudes is blocked, the predictive power of attitude on purchase intention is considerably diminished. Likewise, the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review can be affected by certain moderators. Inspired by this analogy, we introduced tie strength as a possible moderator and demonstrated that tie strength moderated the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review. Previously, Levin and Cross (2004) showed that credibility mediates strong-ties through receipt of knowledge, but this credibility mediation is not observed for weak-ties, where a direct path to it is activated. Thus, the predictive power of credibility on behavioral intention - that is, willingness to accept a review - is expected to be higher for strong-ties.

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Factors Influencing Entrepreneurial Intention of Korean and Chinese College Students and Differences Between Countries: Focusing on Entrepreneurial Self-efficacy, Social Support, and Government Support Policy (한국과 중국 대학생들의 창업의도 영향요인과 국가 간 차이: 창업효능감, 사회적 지지 및 정부지원정책을 중심으로)

  • Park, JaeChun;Nam, JungMin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2022
  • This study investigated the effects of individual characteristics (entrepreneurial self-efficacy) and environmental characteristics (social support, government support policy) on entrepreneurial intention for college students in Korea and China. In particular, the moderating effect of differences between countries (Korea and China) was demonstrated in the relationship between individual and environmental characteristics and entrepreneurial intention. The results of the empirical analysis of 626 Korean and Chinese university students are as follows. First, all of the entrepreneurial self-efficacy, social support, and government support policies perceived by Korean college students had a positive effect on entrepreneurial intention. In particular, Korean college students' entrepreneurial intentions were influenced in the order of social support, entrepreneurial self-efficacy, and government support policies. Second, all of the entrepreneurial self-efficacy, social support, and government support policies perceived by Chinese college students had a positive effect on start-up intention. In particular, entrepreneurial intention of Chinese college students was influenced in the order of government support policy, entrepreneurial self-efficacy, and social support. Third, the relationship between environmental characteristics (social support, government support policy) and entrepreneurial intention was adjusted by differences between countries. First, the positive relationship between social support and entrepreneurial intention was generally higher for Chinese college students than for Korean college students. In addition, the positive relationship between government support policy and entrepreneurial intention was higher for Chinese college students than for Korean college students as the level of awareness of government support policy increased. Finally, theoretical and practical implications for the intention of Korean and Chinese college students to start a business were presented, and the limitations of the study and future research directions were presented based on this study.

SSP Climate Change Scenarios with 1km Resolution Over Korean Peninsula for Agricultural Uses (농업분야 활용을 위한 한반도 1km 격자형 SSP 기후변화 시나리오)

  • Jina Hur;Jae-Pil Cho;Sera Jo;Kyo-Moon Shim;Yong-Seok Kim;Min-Gu Kang;Chan-Sung Oh;Seung-Beom Seo;Eung-Sup Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2024
  • The international community adopts the SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenario as a new greenhouse gas emission pathway. As part of efforts to reflect these international trends and support for climate change adaptation measure in the agricultural sector, the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) produced high-resolution (1 km) climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula based on SSP scenarios, certified as a "National Climate Change Standard Scenario" in 2022. This paper introduces SSP climate change scenario of the NAS and shows the results of the climate change projections. In order to produce future climate change scenarios, global climate data produced from 18 GCM models participating in CMIP6 were collected for the past (1985-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods, and were statistically downscaled for the Korean Peninsula using the digital climate maps with 1km resolution and the SQM method. In the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), the average annual maximum/minimum temperature of the Korean Peninsula is projected to increase by 2.6~6.1℃/2.5~6.3℃ and annual precipitation by 21.5~38.7% depending on scenarios. The increases in temperature and precipitation under the low-carbon scenario were smaller than those under high-carbon scenario. It is projected that the average wind speed and solar radiation over the analysis region will not change significantly in the end of the 21st century compared to the present. This data is expected to contribute to understanding future uncertainties due to climate change and contributing to rational decision-making for climate change adaptation.