• Title/Summary/Keyword: 모수 추정법

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Adaptive Searching Estimation in Stratified Spatial Sample design (적합탐색 관찰을 이용한 층화 공간표본설계에서의 추정)

  • 변종석
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.353-369
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    • 2000
  • We systematized an stratified spatial sample design(SSSD) that uses the adequate stratification criteria such as the shapeness or the dispersion of an interesting region in a spatial population. And we proposed an adaptive searching estimation method in the SSSD to estimate the area of region of interest in two-dimensional surfaces. When wc adopt the proposed adaptive searching estimation method in SSSD, the observing sample size is more decreased than a classical sample design that all the designed sample size is observed. Nevertheless it has been shown that we can produce the moderate result but the efficiency is a slight reduced.

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Estimation for random coefficient autoregressive model (확률계수 자기회귀 모형의 추정)

  • Kim, Ju Sung;Lee, Sung Duck;Jo, Na Rae;Ham, In Suk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.257-266
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    • 2016
  • Random Coefficient Autoregressive models (RCA) have attracted increased interest due to the wide range of applications in biology, economics, meteorology and finance. We consider an RCA as an appropriate model for non-linear properties and better than an AR model for linear properties. We study the methods of RCA parameter estimation. Especially we proposed the special case that an random coefficient ${\phi}(t)$ has the initial value ${\phi}(0)$ in the RCA model. In practical study, we estimated the parameters and compared Prediction Error Sum of Squares (PRESS) criterion between AR and RCA using Korean Mumps data.

퍼지확률회귀모형(確率回歸模型)

  • Lee, Ho-Sung;O, Chang-Hyeok
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 1994
  • 기존의 퍼지회귀모형은 모수의 퍼지성질에 의해 관측된 종속변수의 변동을 설명하는 방법이다. 그러나 일반적으로 종속변수에 영향을 미치는 모든 독립변수를 모형화하는 일은 불가능하므로 종속변수가 삼각퍼지숫자로 관측된 경우 모형화되지 않은 변수들의 영향을 랜덤 오차항으로 두는 퍼지확률회귀모형을 소개하고 이에 따른 모수추정법을 다룬다. 이 방법은 통계적 회귀모형의 일반화로 간주할 수 있다.

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Statistical review and explanation for Lanchester model (란체스터 모형에 대한 통계적 고찰과 해석)

  • Yoo, Byung Joo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.335-345
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    • 2020
  • This paper deals with the problem of estimating the log-transformed linear regression model to fit actual battle data from the Ardennes Campaign of World War II into the Lanchester model. The problem of determining a global solution for parameters and multicollinearity problems are identified and modified by examining the results of previous studies on data. The least squares method requires attention because a local solution can be found rather than a global solution if considering a specific constraint or a limited candidate group. The method of exploring this multicollinearity problem can be confirmed by a statistic known as a variance inflation factor. Therefore, the Lanchester model is simplified to avoid these problems, and the combat power attrition rate model was proposed which is statistically significant and easy to explain. When fitting the model, the dependence problem between the data has occurred due to autocorrelation. Matters that might be underestimated or overestimated were resolved by the Cochrane-Orcutt method as well as guaranteeing independence and normality.

Comparison between REML and Bayesian via Gibbs Sampling Algorithm with a Mixed Animal Model to Estimate Genetic Parameters for Carcass Traits in Hanwoo(Korean Native Cattle) (한우의 도체형질 유전모수 추정을 위한 REML과 Bayesian via Gibbs Sampling 방법의 비교 연구)

  • Roh, S.H.;Kim, B.W.;Kim, H.S.;Min, H.S.;Yoon, H.B.;Lee, D.H.;Jeon, J.T.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.719-728
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    • 2004
  • The aims of this study were to estimate genetic parameters for carcass traits on Hanwoo(Korean Native Cattle) and to compare two different statistical algorithms for estimating genetic parameters. Data obtained from 1526 steers at Hanwoo Improvement Center and Hanwoo Improvement Complex Area from 1996 to 2001 were used for the analyses. The carcass traits considered in these studies were carcass weight, dressing percent, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, and marbling score. Estimated genetic parameters using EM-REML algorithm were compared to those by Bayesian inference via Gibbs Sampling to find out statistical properties. The estimated heritabilities of carcass traits by REML method were 0.28, 0.25, 0.35, 0.39 and 0.51, respectively and those by Gibbs Sampling method were 0.29, 0.25, 0.40, 0.42 and 0.54, respectively. This estimates were not significantly different, even though the estimated heritabilities by Gibbs Sampling method were higher than ones by REML method. Since the estimated statistics by REML method and Gibbs Sampling method were not significantly different in this study, it is inferred that both mothods could be efficiently applied for the analysis of carcass traits of cattle. However, further studies are demanded to define an optimal statistical method for handling large scale performance data.

Development of a Storage-Reliability Estimation Method Using Quantal Response Data for One-Shot Systems with Low Reliability-Decreasing Rates (미소한 신뢰도 감소율을 가지는 원샷 시스템의 가부반응 데이터를 이용한 저장 신뢰도 추정방법 개발)

  • Jang, Hyun-Jeung;Son, Young-Kap
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.1291-1298
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    • 2011
  • This paper proposes a new reliability estimation method for one-shot systems using quantal response data, which is based on a parametric estimation method. The proposed method considers the time-variant failure ratio of the quantal response data and it can overcome the problems in parametric estimation methods. Seven reliability estimation methods in the literature were compared with the proposed method in terms of the accuracy of reliability estimation in order to verify the proposed method. To compare the accuracy of reliability estimation, the SSEs (Sum of Squared Error) of the reliability estimation results for the different estimation methods were evaluated according to the various numbers of samples tested. The proposed method provided more accurate reliability estimation results than any of the other methods from the results of the accuracy comparison.

Variable selection in partial linear regression using the least angle regression (부분선형모형에서 LARS를 이용한 변수선택)

  • Seo, Han Son;Yoon, Min;Lee, Hakbae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.937-944
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    • 2021
  • The problem of selecting variables is addressed in partial linear regression. Model selection for partial linear models is not easy since it involves nonparametric estimation such as smoothing parameter selection and estimation for linear explanatory variables. In this work, several approaches for variable selection are proposed using a fast forward selection algorithm, least angle regression (LARS). The proposed procedures use t-test, all possible regressions comparisons or stepwise selection process with variables selected by LARS. An example based on real data and a simulation study on the performance of the suggested procedures are presented.

Value at Risk with Peaks over Threshold: Comparison Study of Parameter Estimation (Peacks over threshold를 이용한 Value at Risk: 모수추정 방법론의 비교)

  • Kang, Minjung;Kim, Jiyeon;Song, Jongwoo;Song, Seongjoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.483-494
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    • 2013
  • The importance of financial risk management has been highlighted after several recent incidences of global financial crisis. One of the issues in financial risk management is how to measure the risk; currently, the most widely used risk measure is the Value at Risk(VaR). We can consider to estimate VaR using extreme value theory if the financial data have heavy tails as the recent market trend. In this paper, we study estimations of VaR using Peaks over Threshold(POT), which is a common method of modeling fat-tailed data using extreme value theory. To use POT, we first estimate parameters of the Generalized Pareto Distribution(GPD). Here, we compare three different methods of estimating parameters of GPD by comparing the performance of the estimated VaR based on KOSPI 5 minute-data. In addition, we simulate data from normal inverse Gaussian distributions and examine two parameter estimation methods of GPD. We find that the recent methods of parameter estimation of GPD work better than the maximum likelihood estimation when the kurtosis of the return distribution of KOSPI is very high and the simulation experiment shows similar results.

Comparing Methods to Select Functional Form in Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Methods (양분선택형 비시장가치평가법에 있어서 함수모형선택을 위한 제 방법론 비교)

  • Lee, Hee-Chan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.25-44
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    • 2001
  • 본 논문의 목적은 양분선택질문형 비시장가치평가법을 통한 편익추정에 사용되는 제 함수의 적합성 여부를 검증하기 위해 사용될 수 있는 방법론들을 비교 검토하는 것이다. 여가수렵의 환경적 요인의 변화에 따른 편익추정에 사용된 함수의 적합성을 판단하기 위해 변이계수접근법, 함수설정 오류 테스트, 그리고 비모수접근법 등이 각 함수에 적용되었다. 결과에 따르면, 편익추정에 이용된 세 가지 로짓함수(선형, 로그, 쉐어모형) 모두 적합한 것으로 판정되었다. 주어진 함수형태에 적용된 세 방법론간에 밀접한 일치성을 보였으며 경우에 따라서는 상호보완적이라는 함축성을 보이기도 하였다 이와 같은 결론은 로짓함수로부터 추정된 값들에 Krinsky-Robb 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 구축한 신뢰구간의 함수간 비교를 통해서도 확인되었다. 주어진 환경 시나리오에 대해 각 함수로부터 도출된 평균 추정치의 신뢰구간이 모두 충분히 중복되었기 때문에 편익추정과 관련하여 함수형태간에 유의적 차이가 없음이 입증된 것이다.

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Type I projection sum of squares by weighted least squares (가중최소제곱법에 의한 제1종 사영제곱합)

  • Choi, Jaesung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.423-429
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    • 2014
  • This paper discusses a method for getting Type I sums of squares by projections under a two-way fixed-effects model when variances of errors are not equal. The method of weighted least squares is used to estimate the parameters of the assumed model. The model is fitted to the data in a sequential manner by using the model comparison technique. The vector space generated by the model matrix can be composed of orthogonal vector subspaces spanned by submatrices consisting of column vectors related to the parameters. It is discussed how to get the Type I sums of squares by using the projections into the orthogonal vector subspaces.