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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2020.33.3.335

Statistical review and explanation for Lanchester model  

Yoo, Byung Joo (Operations Analysis Branch, Ground Operations Command)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.33, no.3, 2020 , pp. 335-345 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper deals with the problem of estimating the log-transformed linear regression model to fit actual battle data from the Ardennes Campaign of World War II into the Lanchester model. The problem of determining a global solution for parameters and multicollinearity problems are identified and modified by examining the results of previous studies on data. The least squares method requires attention because a local solution can be found rather than a global solution if considering a specific constraint or a limited candidate group. The method of exploring this multicollinearity problem can be confirmed by a statistic known as a variance inflation factor. Therefore, the Lanchester model is simplified to avoid these problems, and the combat power attrition rate model was proposed which is statistically significant and easy to explain. When fitting the model, the dependence problem between the data has occurred due to autocorrelation. Matters that might be underestimated or overestimated were resolved by the Cochrane-Orcutt method as well as guaranteeing independence and normality.
Keywords
Lanchester combat model; combat power attrition rate model; autocorrelation; multicollinearity; Ardennes campaign;
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