• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크 중요도

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Is the Precautionary Principle Unscientific?: 'Rationality' of the Precautionary Principle and its Conflicts with Risk Analysis Framework (사전주의의 원칙은 비과학적인가?: 위험 분석과의 논쟁을 통해 본 사전주의 원칙의 '합리성')

  • Ha, Dae-Cheong
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.143-174
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    • 2010
  • How can a regulatory policy to address potential hazards be made legitimate in the face of scientific uncertainty? The precautionary principle has been gradually regarded as the most persuasive answer to this intricate question in Europe since the 1970s and generally recognized as a guiding principle in international environmental law. This principle, however, has often been subject to diverse concerns and criticisms due to its vague definition. This article tries to elaborate the precautionary principle while reviewing both the validity and unreasonableness of these criticisms over this principle. Then, this article explores the policy relevance of this principle by applying this elaborated definition to the concrete case of risk governance such as the risk assesment of food safety. In the end, this paper emphasizes the fact that the precautionary principle can be applied in the field of risk governance, refuting the argument that the precautionary principle is only a moral attitude or a political position.

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Establishing the Importance Weight Model of IT Investment Evaluation Criteria through AHP Analysis (AHP 기법을 적용한 IT프로젝트 사전타당성 평가항목의 가중치 산출)

  • Kwon, Min-Young;Koo, Bon-Jae;Lee, Kuk-Hie
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.265-285
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this research is to identify the major evaluation criteria of IT investment projects and establish the importance weights of criteria through AHP analysis. Seven evaluation criteria which have been drawn from prior studies and industry practices are direct costs, indirect costs, financial benefits, strategic value, risk, technical necessity, and political considerations. Data have been collected from 95 IT projects in 40 public organizations and private firms in Korea. After having applied the data reliability test, 79 projects have been selected. The results of AHP analysis show the importance weights and priorities of seven evaluation criteria as follows: financial benefits 25.2%, strategic value 22.36%, direct costs 14.34%, risk 12.10%, technical necessity 11.55%, political considerations 8.3%, and indirect costs 6.48%. And the weights of seven criteria shows considerable differences among three different IT project types such as transactional, informational, and infrastructural.

A Profitability Forecasting Model available in Planning Stage of Housing Redevelopment Project (주택재개발사업 기획단계에서 이용 가능한 수익성 예측 모델)

  • Ahn, Kyung-Hwan;Park, Jong-Soon;Lee, Jong-Sik;Kwon, Dae-Jung;Chun, Jae-Youl
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2013
  • A judgment on the redevelopment projects' predicted profitability is an essential decision-making element for the success of the redevelopment projects. It is necessary to review the literature on profitability of redevelopment project and draw risk factors that could affect profitability through the risk analysis based on surveys. It is also necessary to judge profitability prediction toward the business value of the redevelopment project in the planning phase according to the risk analysis results which can affect the profitability prediction. In order to prevent the growing difficulties in executing the projects, a profitability prediction model is proposed using the method of management and disposal based on a proportional calculation that can estimate the share of expenses in order to judge profitability in the planning phase. With the improvement of profitability prediction models, it is possible to appropriately judge profitability in the planning phase in order to allow the prevention of suspension, reduction of project term, reduction of cost, and making of rational decisions.

Evaluation of CM Capability based on Business Functions for International Plant Construction (해외 플랜트 건설사업관리 업무기능별 역량분석)

  • Ha, Jiwon;Jung, Youngsoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.3-15
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    • 2014
  • Ever expanding overseas construction is one of the most important issues for Korean construction companies. Among these issues, strategies for overseas plant construction have widely been discussed, because the plant construction has features of low competitiveness and high ripple effects when compared with other construction sectors. In this sense, the purpose of this research is to evaluate the CM capability of Korean construction industry for overseas plant construction. Fourteen construction business functions and four techniques were defined first. Based on these functions and techniques, CM capability was quantified for As-Is (2013), To-Be (2018) and Gap analyses. Findings of this research reveal that 1) capability for construction is quite competent, 2) capabilities for planning, design management, contracting, and risk management are found to be relatively low, where higher value can be added. In addition, it is found that R&D needs to be extended to develop systemized management techniques. It is also required to secure specialists and original technologies at national industrial level.

Analysing Decision Making Factors of IT Investment Projects (IT 프로젝트의 기본속성과 사전타당성 분석결과가 투자의사결정에 미치는 영향요인)

  • Koo, Bon-Jae;Lee, Kuk-Hie
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.161-189
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    • 2007
  • The purposes of this dissertation are to identify various factors affecting the outcomes of feasibility analysis and investment decision makings of new IT project plans and empirically analysis the relationships among them. 9 variables which have been drawn from prior studies and industry practices are the amount of the necessary resource such as development budget and time, the expect financial benefits, the degree of alignments between IT projects and the business strategy, the estimated risk, and the investment priority as the dependent variable. Data from 125 IT projects of K bank, the leading commercial bank in Korea, have been collected and Regression Analysis and ANOVA have been performed. As results, 5 out of 8 hypothesis have been accepted partially or totally.

Estimation of lapse rate of variable annuities by using Cox proportional hazard model (Cox 비례위험모형을 이용한 변액연금 해지율의 추정)

  • Kim, Yumi;Lee, Hangsuck
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.723-736
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    • 2013
  • The importance of lapse rate is highly increasing due to the introduction of Cash Flow Pricing system, non-refund-of-reserve insurance policy, and IFRS (International Financial Reporting System) to the Korean insurance market. Researches on lapse rate have mainly focused on simple data analysis and regression analysis, etc. However, lapse rate can be analyzed by survival analysis and can be well explained in terms of several covariates with Cox proportional hazard model. Guaranteed minimum benefits embedded in variable annuities require more elegant statistical analysis of lapse rate. Hence, this paper analyzes data of policyholders with variable annuities by using Cox proportional hazard model. The key variables of policy holder that influences the lapse rate are payment method, premium, lapse insured to term insured, reserve-GMXB ratio, and age.

Real Option Study on Sustainable DMZ Management under Biodiversity Uncertainty (생물다양성 불확실성하에서 지속가능한 DMZ 관리 실물옵션 분석)

  • Lee, Jaehyung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.617-643
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    • 2019
  • The Demilitarized Zone(DMZ) is a buffer zone set between the southern and northern limit lines established after the 1953 Armistice Agreement. It is an important natural environment conservation area where wild species of animals and plants live. On the other hand, the development pressure on the DMZ will increase when the inter-Korean economic cooperation is activated in the future. As a result, DMZ development should consider not only the economic cost-benefit aspects, but also how to assess and conserve the biodiversity of the DMZ, as well as the recovery costs and budget. This paper develope a sustainable DMZ management model under biodiversity uncertainly by using real option approach. The model is also designed to reflect the political risk and regional specificity of the DMZ. Through empirical analysis, I derive the biodiversity threshold (b*) that can secure the DMZ investment economy under uncertainty. In addition, through the sensitivity analysis, I derive the factors influencing the biodiversity threshold, and suggest the policy implications for sustainable management of DMZ.

Cyclical Analysis of Construction Business Using Filtering Model (국내 건설경기의 순환변동 분석)

  • Suh, Myong-kyo;Kim, Hyung-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.300-309
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    • 2017
  • This paper examines the cyclical fluctuation of 'construction orders' and 'construction investment' using HP filter, Bandpass filter and Beveridge-Nelson decomposition methods. The main results are as follows. As a result of the analysis of the cyclical fluctuation of construction orders, it was analyzed that there were about 7 cyclical fluctuations from 1976 to the first quarter of 2017. Construction orders for cyclical fluctuations peaked in the second quarter of 2015 and turned to a downward trend. On the other hand, construction investment has experienced about 6 cycles of fluctuations during the same period, and it has been rising continuously since the bottom of 3Q12. This is consistent with the general theory that construction orders precede construction investments. In addition, the comparison of the construction orders, construction investment, and GDP amplitude shows that the GDP amplitude is the smallest and stable, and the construction orders have the greatest variation in amplitude. Therefore, construction orders should be adjusted by government policy depending on economic fluctuations.

A Development of the Integrated Total Asset Management System (통합 유가증권시스템의 개발)

  • Hwang Hyun-Cheol;Song Ha-Yoon
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.458-463
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    • 2005
  • The total asset management system is used for banks or financial institutions for the management of trusteed assets or own assets and it is divided into three systems: the front-office system, the middle-office system and the back-office system by its business areas and functionalities. This kind of asset management system is a huge and complex system handling large data and various financial products, and requires professional knowledges like accounting, financial product specific knowledge, compliance and regulations, etc. It also performs high level computation for NAV calculation and risk measurement on every day Therefore, it needs absolute stability, extendability and efficiency and should handle the frequent change of regulation and products and connectivity with outdoor institutions. In this paper, we report our successful development of such a system and discuss issues regarding its efficient system design and system construction.

Strategic Value of Hong Kong as a Bridgehead for Entering Chinese Service Market: Focusing on China-Hong Kong CEPA (대중국 서비스업 진출 경유지로서 홍콩의 전략적 가치; 중국-홍콩 경제동반자 협정(CEPA)을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jongseok
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2018
  • This study suggests a way through Hong Kong as an alternative strategy for Korean companies to enter Chinese service market which is rapidly expanding due to China's recent policy switch toward service economy. Service market is generally more regulated, labor-intensive, and domestic demand-oriented than goods market, which makes opening of domestic markets to foreigners slow. In case of China, market control and regulations by the State is tighter than other economies. Therefore, it is important to find ways to avoid regulations from the Chinese government if possible. In this sense, this study investigates the China-Hong Kong CEPA and draws its strategic value for entering Chinese service market by comparing it with the Korea-China FTA service sector. In addition, utilizing the difference in tax agreements between Korea-China and China-Hong Kong, and the human network of Hong Kong entrepreneurs in China may play an important role in reducing the risk that might arise in China.