• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크 예측

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A study of the economic effects of weather and climate information on marine logistics (해상운송업의 기상기후정보 경제적 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Lho, Sangwhan;Lim, Dongsoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2014
  • Weather seems to influence industries in a variety of ways. On a day-to-day basis, it is the most volatile external factor influencing consumer and market behavior. And, because weather is constantly changing, industries must deal with a continuously shifting array of opportunities and risks. This study aims to examine how climate and weather changes and information, as external environmental factors, have affected the Korean industries, particularly marine shipping and logistics. To find out the economic value of marine weather information, we use measurable results of VVOS(Vessel and Voyage Optimization Services) in the ocean shipping, which the marine weather software tool can save fuel costs up to 4%. When the fuel saving is same as VVOS's performance, the saving of Korean flag ship is estimated about 62 billion won and the saving of total flag ship is estimated about 519 billion won. However, coastal shipping companies have been struggling with the heavy weather factors, such as wave height, wave period and wind. Major findings are that wind and wave height have a significant negative effect on cargo transport, while wave period has a significant positive effect on cargo transport. And to conclude, when we use efficiently the marine weather information, we can increase cargo transport and save fuel costs etc.

Analyses of Scenarios Based on a Leakage of Highly Compressed Air and Fire Anticipated in CAES (Compressed Air Energy Storage) Facility (압축공기에너지저장 시설에서 발생 가능한 압축공기 유출 및 화재 시나리오 분석)

  • Yoon, Yong-Kyun;Ju, Eun-Hye
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.568-576
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    • 2015
  • In this study, scenarios based on the leakage of highly compressed air and fire occurrence turned out to be high risks in an operation stage of CAES facility were constructed and estimated. By combining Bernoulli equation with momentum equation, an expression to calculate an impact force of a jet flow of compressed air was derived. An impact force was found to be proportional to the square of diameter of fracture and the pressure of compressed air. Four types of fire scenarios were composed to evaluate an effects that seasonal change and location of fire source have on the spread behavior of smoke. Smoke from the fire ignited in the vicinity of CAES opening descended more quickly below the limit line of breathing than one from the fire occurred 10 m away from CAES opening, which is expected to occur due to a propagation of wave front of smoke. It was shown that a rate of smoke spread of the winter fire is faster than one of the summer fire and smoke from the winter fire spreads farther than one of the summer fire, which are dependent on the direction of air flow into access opening. Evacuation simulation indicated that the required safe evacuation time(RSET) of the summer and winter fires are 262, 670 s each.

Pollutant Monitoring of Abandoned Mines using the Leaching Test with Soils and Tailings (토양 및 광미의 용출실험을 이용한 폐광산오염수준의 모니터링)

  • Kang, Mee-A;Kim, Kwang-Tae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.419-424
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    • 2007
  • The contents were investigated by the monitoring survey from the soils and tailings caused by numerous abandoned mines in Korea. Cause heavy metals due to abandoned metal mines are raising significant environmental problems. But it is an important key such as a leaching and a transfer mechanism to evaluate contamination levels caused by abandoned mines. In this study the column test was carried in order to calculate a leaching level from soils and tailings. It was demonstrated that the leaching of Pb, Cd and Mn was expressed with similar behaviors and that of As and Cu was expressed with similar behaviors. For Zn, the leaching behavior was shown a serious leaching level with 40 mg/kg during the 45days. This was explained by Zn high contents of soils Zn in a natural world and ORP conditions where the leaching of Zn was occurred easily. Hence it was necessary that the survey of ORP was a key as well as total contents for the management of abandoned metal mines. We could estimate the chemical forms of heavy metals using the physical index such as ORP and pH and reduce the risk from heavy metals caused by abandoned metal mines.

Behavior Analysis and Control of a Moored Training Ship in an Exclusive Wharf (전용부두 계류중인 실습선의 선체거동 해석 및 제어에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.139-145
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    • 2017
  • Recently, gusts, typhoon and tsunamis have been occurring more frequently around the world. In such an emergency situation, a moored vessel can be used to predict and analyze other vessel behavior, but if the mooring system is destroyed, marine casualties can occur. Therefore, it is necessary to determine quantitatively whether a vessel should be kept in the harbour or evacuate. In this study, moored ship safety in an exclusive wharf according to swell effects on motion and mooring load have been investigated using numerical simulations. The maximum tension exerted on mooring lines exceeded the Safety Working Load for intervals 12 and 15 seconds. The maximum bollard force also exceeded 35 tons (allowable force) in all evaluation cases. The surge motion criteria result for safe working conditions exceeded 3 meters more than the wave period 12 seconds with a wind speed of 25 knots. As a result, a risk rating matrix (risk category- very high risk, high risk and moderate risk) was developed with reference to major external forces such as wind force, wave height and wave periods to provide criteria for determining the control of capabilities of mooring systems to prevent accidents.

Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method for Apartment Using CM at Risk (CM at Risk를 적용한 공동주택의 확률론적 초기 GMP 산정방안)

  • Hyun, Chang-Taek;Go, Gun-Ho;Jin, Zhengxun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2018
  • In the DBB delivery system, the design stage and the construction stage are separated. Because of this, design changes frequently occur, and problems such as construction cost overrun, schedule delay, and quality deterioration happen as well. Recently, in the construction industry CM at Risk(CM@R) delivery system, which can systematically solve the above-mentioned problems of DBB delivery system, meet various demands of clients, and overcome the limited cost and period. In the CM@R delivery system, the contractor negotiates for a maximum guaranteed price(GMP) with the client at the design stage, and the CM performer carries out the construction within the GMP. However, uncertainties are inherent in the GMP calculation because the calculation is based on unfinished drawings and documents. In this study, a Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method by combining a probabilistic tool of Monte Carlo simulation with a case based reasoning is proposed so that the uncertainty in GMP calculation is reflected. After the earlier GMP is calculated, a process to calculate the $2^{nd}$ GMP at the time of around 80 % of detailed deign and to negotiate with the client to fix the final GMP is proposed. The Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method is verified through the case study. In this study, researchers set the range of GMP through the proposed probabilistic GMP calculation and tried to reduce the risk through negotiation between the client and the CM performer. The proposed method and process would contribute to the successful introduction of CM@R in Korea.

An Analysis and Improvement of Free Form Building's Construction Productivity - Focused on Exposed Concrete Work - (비정형 건축물 공사의 생산성 분석 및 향상방안 - 노출콘크리트 공사를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Eun-Young;Kim, Yea-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.38-46
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    • 2014
  • The Global's top five Design Firms selected from BauNetz a German architectural magazine in 2007 designed free form building design which was 25% of the overall design by 2006-2010. Free form building is a landmark of the city and the country so its social and economic impacts are very large. In case of Korea, free form buildings such as Tribowl in Incheon, KINTEX Exhibition hall 2 and Dongdaemun Design Plaza have increased. However, those the increase in design trends and, the needs due to the lack of free form building design and construction management experience, free form building projects can't be expected to profitability and have a number of problems after completion. Especially, there are many excessive quality problems and the rising cost due to design changes frequently and lack of experience and data. Thus an initial plan regardless of considering of free form building's characteristics can be a huge risk because of the difference with the plan and actual projects, yet there aren't free form building project's performance data and case studies related to productivity. In this study, through selection of low-construction productivity works and an analysis of the work process and productivity data, hope to propose an actual field productivity of free form building and the ways to improve productivity.

A Study on perception of effects about ISM Code amendments (ISM Code 개정 시 미치는 영향 인식에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Sung-Yong;Jo, Min-Chul
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2013.06a
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    • pp.163-165
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    • 2013
  • IMO(International Maritime Organization) is existed the movement for revising ISM Code so that the maintenance history and the trouble information given trading in a ship can be transferred. An empirical analysis was made on the influence that will have upon shipping industry through surveying on the recognition on ISM Code revision in employees of the relevant field and on the expected problems given being amended ISM Code as the above. In conclusion, the positive effect is judged to be more in the aspect of ship safety, which is the aim of ISM Code, rather than the negative effect, which may take place given being revised ISM Code. In other words, the clean market can be formed through this because fairness is maintained on both sides given trading in a ship by which opening the maintenance record and the trouble history is applied equally to a buyer and a seller. Ships can be reduced a loss of time and cost in preventing similar problems and seeking solution that may appear in important equipments, through this maintenance record. Also, based on these materials, it comes to be available for analyzing a risk of ship and preventing and managing a risk, thereby being increased ability of maintenance and repair in a ship, resulting in being judged to likely contributing to ship safety and environmental-pollution prevention.

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Probability-based Critical Path Estimation for PERT Networks of Repetitive Activities (반복작업 PERT 네트워크의 확률기반 주공정 산정기법)

  • Yi, Kyoo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.595-602
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    • 2018
  • Network-based scheduling methods can be classified into CPM method and PERT method. In the network scheduling chart, critical path can be estimated by performing the forward calculation and the backward calculation though the paths in the network chart. In PERT method, however, it is unreasonable to simply estimate the critical path by adding the sum of the activity durations in a specific path, since it does not incorporate probabilistic concept of PERT. The critical path of a PERT network can change according to the target period and deviation, and in some cases, the expected time of the critical path may not be the path with longest expected time. Based on this concept, this study proposes a technique to derive the most-likely critical path by comparing the sum of estimated time with the target time. It also proposes a method of systematically deriving all alternate paths for a network of repetitive activities. Case studies demonstrated that the most-likely critical path is not a fixed path and may vary according to the target period and standard deviation. It is expected that the proposed method of project duration forecasting will be useful in construction environment with varying target date situations.

Assessing the Impacts of EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms and Its Policy Implications: An Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis (환경산업연관분석을 활용한 탄소국경조정 메커니즘 도입에 따른 국내 산업계 영향 분석과 대응전략)

  • Yeo, Yeongjun;Cho, Hae-in;Jeong, Hoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.419-449
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    • 2022
  • This paper aims to quantify the potential economic burdens of EU's carbon border adjustment mechanisms faced by Korean domestic industries. In addition, this study tries to compare and analyzes changes in the burden of each industry resulted from the implementation of the domestic low-carbon policy. Based on the quantitative findings, we intend to suggest policy implications for establishing mid- to long-term strategies in response to climate change risks. Based on the environmentally extended input-output analysis, the total economic burdens of the domestic industries due to the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanisms are estimated to be approximately KRW 8,245.6 billion in 2030. Looking at the impacts by industry, it is found that major industries such as petrochemicals, petroleum refining, transportation equipment, steel, automobiles, and electric/electronic equipment industries are expected to account for 84.3% of the total potential burdens. In addition, in multiple policy scenarios assuming technological developments and energy transition following the implementation of domestic low-carbon policies, the total economic burden of carbon border adjustment is expected to decrease by about 11.7% to 15.0%. The main result of this study suggests that we should not view EU EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism as a trade regulation, but to use it as a momentum for more effective implementation of the low-carbon and energy transition strategies in the global carbon neural era.

The Study on the Impact of China Banks' Securities Asset Management on Financial performance (중국 상업은행의 유가증권투자가 경영성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Bae, Soo Hyun
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.89-94
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    • 2023
  • Recently, credit risk in the Chinese corporate bond market has increased significantly, and there is a possibility that banks that have invested in corporate bonds may become insolvent. The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the effect of Chinese commercial banks' investment in securities on financial performance. The analysis results are as follows. First, it is estimated that as the share of securities investment by Chinese commercial banks increases, the bank's profitability decreases. It was found that investment in securities did not have a positive impact on profitability due to the increase in credit risk in the corporate bond market and the increase in marginal companies. Second, it is estimated that as the proportion of securities investment by Chinese commercial banks increases, the bank's soundness deteriorates. As credit risk in China's capital market is increasing, continuous management of non-performing assets is required. Chinese commercial banks need portfolio management through securities investment in addition to loan assets to improve profitability. However, volatility should be managed by adjusting the scale of securities management to an appropriate level.