• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크 예측

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Development of Construction Project Performance Management System(PPMS) Considering Project Characteristics (건설 프로젝트 리스크 관리 효율성 향상을 위한 성과측정시스템(PPMS) 개발)

  • Cha, Hee-Sung;Kim, Ki-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.82-90
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    • 2013
  • In the construction industry, there are so many qualitative factors affecting the performance of a project. So it is crucial to measure the factors in an effective way in order to analyze the interrelationship among the various factors. To improve the performance level of a project, it is also important to identify the most appropriate management practices which are inter-linked with the subject project. The purpose of this study is to develop a project performance management system (PPMS) to quantitatively analyze the variety of project performance data and identify the best management practice to increase the potential level of a particular performance area. Using a comparative statistical method, this study developed a quantification method and web-based computerized system to enhance the usage of the system. The system, however, is still under the validation stage because of the shortage of data set. In the future, when more and more completed project data are stored in the system, the system would play a crucial role in predicting the performance level and matching the best management practice for a subject project. In addition, the system can also be modified as a tool for a business- or industry-level system by incorporating the existing enterprise resource programs.

A Research of Risk Assessment for Urethane Fire Based on Fire Toxicity (연소 독성 기반 우레탄 화재의 위험성 평가 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Soo;Cho, Nam-Wook;Rie, Dong-Ho
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2015
  • Fire in the risk management subject belongs to high risk disaster which accompanies personnel and materiel loss. So, management of disaster and safety is required to include fire prevention activities, fire risk prediction and investment of safety management expense. Combustion toxicity is required by gas toxicity test (KS F 2271), to minimize human damage. In this study, gas toxicity test were experimented with regard to urethane sample (Depth 5~25 mm) to obtain basic data. Fire effluent exposing to experimental animal were analyzed by FT-IR (Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy). Combustion toxicity index Lethal Fractional Effective Dose ($L_{FED}$) of ISO 13344 was calculated. According to the result of calculating Lethal Concentration 50% ($LC_{50}$) based on $L_{FED}$, $LC_{50}$ of urethane sample containing certain level of fire load is confirmed as $118{\sim}129g/m^3$. Through this study, applicability of this method was confirmed for fire risk assessment. This method can provide information to predict human damage by toxicity combustion gas for securing safety.

Derivation of Components for Feasibility Study of Smart City Public and Private Partnership Projects (스마트시티 민관합동사업의 타당성분석 구성요소 도출)

  • Hyun, Kilyong;Jin, Chengquan;Lee, Sanghoon;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.98-110
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    • 2023
  • The smart city public and private partnership project is a project to build and operate a sustainable city by investing land and capital in public-private partnership to build urban infrastructure and providing various urban services. It highly depends on the precise feasibility study and the projection of the various factors affecting the project during the planning stage to get the project successful. However, it is very difficult to predict the possibility of the project success in advance due to various physical and social factors. It is necessary to derive factors affecting the project at the planning stage and respond with appropriate analysis in order to solve these problems and to carry out a successful project. Therefore, this study derived preliminary components for feasibility study through previous studies and order status analysis and presented feasibility study components such as five-step processes, 10 process items, 19 analysis items, and 54 detailed analysis items through the Delphi method. It can be expected that this research is to contribute corresponding to diversified possible risks and facilitate the projects during the promotion.

A Machine Learning-based Total Production Time Prediction Method for Customized-Manufacturing Companies (주문생산 기업을 위한 기계학습 기반 총생산시간 예측 기법)

  • Park, Do-Myung;Choi, HyungRim;Park, Byung-Kwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.177-190
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    • 2021
  • Due to the development of the fourth industrial revolution technology, efforts are being made to improve areas that humans cannot handle by utilizing artificial intelligence techniques such as machine learning. Although on-demand production companies also want to reduce corporate risks such as delays in delivery by predicting total production time for orders, they are having difficulty predicting this because the total production time is all different for each order. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) theory was developed to find the least efficient areas to increase order throughput and reduce order total cost, but failed to provide a forecast of total production time. Order production varies from order to order due to various customer needs, so the total production time of individual orders can be measured postmortem, but it is difficult to predict in advance. The total measured production time of existing orders is also different, which has limitations that cannot be used as standard time. As a result, experienced managers rely on persimmons rather than on the use of the system, while inexperienced managers use simple management indicators (e.g., 60 days total production time for raw materials, 90 days total production time for steel plates, etc.). Too fast work instructions based on imperfections or indicators cause congestion, which leads to productivity degradation, and too late leads to increased production costs or failure to meet delivery dates due to emergency processing. Failure to meet the deadline will result in compensation for delayed compensation or adversely affect business and collection sectors. In this study, to address these problems, an entity that operates an order production system seeks to find a machine learning model that estimates the total production time of new orders. It uses orders, production, and process performance for materials used for machine learning. We compared and analyzed OLS, GLM Gamma, Extra Trees, and Random Forest algorithms as the best algorithms for estimating total production time and present the results.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

The effect of the ISM Code revision in the shipping industry - Focusing on ship price and hull insurance - (ISM Code 개정이 해운산업에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 선가 및 선박보험에 대한 영향을 중심으로 -)

  • Lim, Sung-Yong;Woo, Su-Han
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 2013
  • IMO(International Maritime Organization) is existed the movement for revising ISM Code so that the maintenance history and the trouble information given trading in a ship can be transferred. An empirical analysis was made on the influence that will have upon shipping industry through surveying on the recognition on ISM Code revision in employees of the relevant field and on the expected problems given being amended ISM Code as the above. In conclusion, the positive effect is judged to be more in the aspect of ship safety, which is the aim of ISM Code, rather than the negative effect, which may take place given being revised ISM Code. In other words, the clean market can be formed through this because fairness is maintained on both sides given trading in a ship by which opening the maintenance record and the trouble history is applied equally to a buyer and a seller. Ships can be reduced a loss of time and cost in preventing similar problems and seeking solution that may appear in important equipments, through this maintenance record. Also, based on these materials, it comes to be available for analyzing a risk of ship and preventing and managing a risk, thereby being increased ability of maintenance and repair in a ship, resulting in being judged to likely contributing to ship safety and environmental-pollution prevention.

The Strategy for Global Competitiveness of the Outsourcing Logistics in the Information-Contents Business (정보콘텐츠 기업의 아웃소싱물류 국제 경쟁력전략)

  • Yun, Hui-Suk
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.241-263
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    • 2008
  • Since the outsourcing logistics business has been an emerging opportunities for many new service providers entering into such an ever-changing technology, knowledge and logistics market, it has resulted into a price-sensitive and high competition industry. In order to sharpen the global competitive power of the information-contents business in this severe environment, this research is engaged in meeting the following purposes: 1. well position the outsourcing logistics services in the logistics business industry 2. articulate the business model to compete in the outsourcing logistics services market, Information-contents industry. 3. propose a competitive strategy for a outsourcing logistics services provider to grow the information-contents business. This research report could also serve as a framework for the other logistics and the outsourcing services companies to plan out their competitive strategies of information-contents industry. For new comers to join the same market, it will be also helpful in positioning their services and making business decisions in a holistic view.

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Tunnelling in Bangkok - Two Case Studies (방콕의 터널공사 - 두 개의 사례연구)

  • Teparaksa, Wanchai;Cho, Gye-Chun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.153-163
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents two case studies for tunnelling in Bangkok: a subway tunnel site and a flood diversion tunnel site. The first case study is related to ground displacement response for dual tunnel Bangkok MRT subway. The MRT subway project of Bangkok city consists of dual tunnels about 20 km long with 18 subway stations. The tunnels are seated in the firm first stiff silty clay layer between 15-22 m in depth below ground surface. The behavior of ground deformation response based on instrumentation is presented. The back analysis based on plain strain FEM analysis is also presented and agrees with field performance. The shear strain of FEM analysis is in the range of 0.1-1% and in accordance with the results of self boring pressuremeter tests. Meanwhile, the second case study is related to the EPB tunnelling bored underneath through underground obstruction. The Premprachakorn flood diversion tunnel is the shortcut tunnel to divert the flood water in rainy season into the Choapraya river. The tunnel was bored by means of EPB shield tunnelling in very stiff silty clay layer at about 20-24 m in depth. During flood diversion tunnel bored underneath the existing Bangkok main water supply tunnel and pile foundation of the bridge, instrumentation was monitored and compared with predicted FEM analysis. The prevention risk potential by means of predicting damage assessment is also presented and discussed.

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A Study on the Risk Management of Korean Firms in Chinese Market (중국시장에서 한국기업의 리스크 관리에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Pan-Jin
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.5-28
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    • 2009
  • As a result of this study only a few Korean firms have a certain management methods designed to predict the possibility of risk occurrence and establishment of systematic countermeasure. Besides, the Korean firms do not have enough data on the risk of Chinese Market. The risk management department inside the firm does not function efficiently, and when it comes to investigation of risk, it heavily depends on that of local branches. Accordingly, in order to accurately recognize and manage, the firms need to not only specialize risk management department but also outsource by using a consulting firm.

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A study on the Export Strategies of the Water Industry (물산업 해외진출 활성화방안 연구)

  • Min, Kyung-Jin;Kim, Dong-Hwan;Jo, Eun-Chae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.104-104
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    • 2011
  • 2010년 기준 세계 물산업은 약 4,800억불 규모이며, 2025년에는 약 1조 달러 규모로 성장할 것으로 전망된다. 또한 기후변화 등의 요인으로 물산업의 범위는 물순환체계 전과정을 포괄하는 "유역종합개발+상하수도+대체수자원"으로 확장될 것으로 예측된다. 그러나 지금까지의 국내 물산업 육성은 주로 상하수도 분야 중심으로 국한되어, 기후변화에 대응한 유역종합개발 분야에 대한 시장 진출기회를 상실하고 있다. 상하수도 중심의 물산업은 이미 선진 메이저 기업들이 선점하여 치열한 경쟁이 벌어지고 있는 '레드오션'이라 할 수 있으므로, 새로운 물산업의 강국으로 부상하기 위해서는 우리가 가진 장점을 바탕으로 물산업의 새로운 영역을 개척하는 방안에 대한 연구가 필요한 시점이다. 본 연구는 먼저 국내외 물순환체계 전과정(유역종합개발+상하수도+대체수자원)에 대한 시장 조사을 통해 세계 물산업 시장을 프로젝트 유형별, 지역별로 분석하고, 이를 토대로 국내 물산업 육성과 해외진출을 위한 당면 과제를 다음과 같이 제시하였다. 첫째, 민관협력을 위한 제도적 틀을 형성할 필요가 있다. 정부의 역할이 매우 중요한데, 정부 또는 기금이 자금의 단순한 대부자에서 적극적인 투자자로 전환함으로서 국내 민간기업들의 해외시장 진입장벽을 낮추어 줄 필요가 있다. 정부 주도의 민관협력이 활성화되면 참여 기업의 재무적 리스크를 현저히 줄일 수 있다. 또한, 상하수도 운영 경험을 축적한 공기업이 해외진출 지원기능을 수행하도록 하여야 한다. 즉, 공기업이 민간 기업의 경쟁자가 아니라 지원자가 될 수 있도록 프레임을 바꿔주어야 한다. 둘째, 물산업 클러스터의 형성이다. 물산업 제조업은 대부분 중소 벤처기업으로 독자적인 해외진출이 곤란하므로, 물전문 공기업이 중소 벤처기업 육성 및 해외진출의 앵커 역할을 담당하는 것이 필요하다. 이스라엘이나 싱가포르의 물산업 클러스터처럼 Anchor 역할을 행하는 공기업과 민간기업이 장기적 협력관계를 구축할 수 있는 기반을 마련해야한다. 셋째, 신시장 역량의 창출이다. 기후변화로 크게 성장할 전망인 통합물관리 시장에 대한 전략적 접근이 요구된다. 우선 ODA 등 대외 원조자금을 활용하여 투자비가 적게 들고 정보를 선점할 수 있는 조사 설계부터 시작하여, 댐 및 수력개발, 상하수도 건설 운영 등에 단계적으로 접근할 수 있을 것이다. 또한, 향후 도입될 예정인 물인프라의 Smart 기술, 첨단 수처리 기술 등을 활용하여 새로운 시장을 개척해야 한다. 4대강살리기 사업, 해수담수화 등 조기에 경쟁우위를 갖출 수 있는 사업과 기술을 Flagship Project로 브랜드화하여 우리나라를 "물강국"으로 포지셔닝할 경우 세계 물시장 공략에 보다 효과적일 것으로 판단된다.

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