• Title/Summary/Keyword: 로짓 회귀분석

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Two Stage Small Area Estimation (이단계 소지역추정)

  • Lee, Sang-Eun;Shin, Key-Il
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.293-300
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    • 2012
  • When Binomial data are obtained, logit and logit mixed models are commonly used for small area estimation. Those models are known to have good statistical properties through the use of unit level information; however, data should be obtained as area level in order to use area level information such as spatial correlation or auto-correlation. In this research, we suggested a new small area estimator obtained through the combination of unit level information with area level information.

The regular physical activity impact on the individuals involved euphoria and determinants of engagement (규칙적 체육활동 참여가 개인의 행복감에 미치는 영향과 참여유도 결정요인)

  • Kim, Mi-Ok;Huh, Ji-Jung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.12
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    • pp.667-675
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to investigate the effects of regular participation in physical activity on personal happiness by analyzing the "2014 National Leisure Sports Participation Survey". By using cross-tabulation and the binary logit model, it is found that there is a positive correlation between those two variables. The effect of positive affect on happiness index was found to be influenced by age, education level, occupation, income, marital status, appear. The results of the analysis of the relationship between the presence of sports facilities and the participation of regular physical activity using crosstab analysis and the analysis of physical activity showed positive relationship between two variables. Hence, it is expected that providing more opportunities to participate in sports programs can lead the public to more regular participation in physical activity.

Hypotheses Analysis about the Efficacy of University-Industry Collaboration In the Field of Information Technology -The Case of IT Mentoring System- (정보통신분야 산학협력 효과성에 대한 영향요인 분석 -IT 멘토링 사례중심으로-)

  • Lee, Jung-Mann;Ihm, Seung-Ho;Hwang, Gyu-He;Lee, Jin-Suk
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.342-352
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    • 2011
  • This study is to verify hypotheses about the efficacy and success factors of the IT Mentor project(in which 524 students participated) which is one of the most best practices in Korea. The empirical results found that all the aspects of students, industrial experts, professors, support programs and other infrastructure have certain influences on the industry-academia cooperation. In addition, logit regression model was employed to investigate the efficacy factors of industry and university's satisfaction to IT mentor system. It showed that industry's satisfaction depends on students' participation in company's projects and students' improvements of major competence.

Developing a Quantitative Evaluation Model for Screening the Research Grant Applications (연구지원 대상자 선정을 위한 정량평가 모형개발)

  • Yoo, Jin-Man;Han, In-Soo;Oh, Keun-Yeob
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.541-549
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    • 2017
  • This research investigates the quantitative screening methods for the Grant Funding system and seeks for the efficient evaluation of a number of proposals. We search foreign cases of Grand Funding, but we found no appropriate model for using in Korea. Thus, we had to develope our own model for better screening. First, we analyse the existing evaluation system and find some problems and challenges. Second, we suggest a quantitative screening system for Grant Funding with a numeric model, and operates a tedious simulation by using the previous data and our suggested model. Third, we test the suggested model and find the optimal model by using simulation method The number of data analysed for simulation is larger than 200 thousands. Last, we suggest some brief policy implications based on the results in the paper.

Life-Cycle Home Ownership and Residential Patterns: An Empirical Analysis of Home Ownership Across Generations (생애주기별 주택소유와 주거유형: 연령대별 손바뀜 현상에 대한 실증분석)

  • Sim, Seung-Gyu;Ji, Inyeob
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2021
  • In the present article we examine life-cycle housing demand for Korea. Distinguished in this work from prior research is the consideration of non-monocinity in the life-cycle housing demand. To this end, we adopt spline logistic regression models. Our findings suggest that life-cyclicity is most clear in Korean housing demand; namely, 1) small (mid-large) house ownership falls (grows) dramatically as households age into middle aged; 2) middle aged households do not participate in the rental or purchase market actively; 3) elderly population does not dispose of their housing to the same extent as younger generations acquire housing.

SNS 프로필 사진이 대출상환에 미치는 영향: 카카오톡 메신저 사진을 중심으로

  • Jeong, Won-Hun;Ha, Gyu-Su
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2020.11a
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    • pp.127-130
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    • 2020
  • 금융시장 환경이 점차 변화하고 있다. 흔히 지점이라 불리는 오프라인 환경에서 애플리케이션을 이용하거나 웹페이지를 이용하는 온라인 비대면 환경으로 이동함에 따라 기존의 정형 정보를 중심으로 한 소비자 행동 예측 방법보다 더 나은 방법을 모색하기 이르렀다. 이에 따라 주관적 비정형 정보의 중요하게 된 것이다. 본 연구는 비대면 대출시장에서 주관적 비정형 정보의 하나인 SNS 프로필 사진과 대출상환에 영향을 미치는 변인을 파악하는 것을 목표로 한다. SNS 프로필 사진은 자신의 감정이나 상태를 표현하는 도구로 떠오르고 있으며, 이러한 차입자의 SNS 프로필사진을 분석함으로써 정보비대칭의 최소화로, 대출심사를 위한 신용평가에 유의적 요소들을 규명하는데 목적이 있다. 본 연구에서는 대출자들이 차입자에 대한 평가의 중요 고려 요소들을 규명하고 탐색하는데 초점을 맞춰 SNS 대안 신용평가만을 심사기준으로 이용한 대출인 텐스페이스의 AI LOAN 대출자중에서 2020년 2월부터 2020년 2월까지 대출자료를 확보할 예정이다. 이러한 자료 중에서 2020년 12월 30일을 기준으로 상환기일이 도래한 대출상환 자료 중 SNS사진을 순서형 로짓회귀모형을 이용해 분석하고자 한다.

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A Study on Factors Influencing Consumer Purchase Intentions and Purposes in Direct-To-Consumer Genetic Test (소비자의뢰 유전자검사 구매 의도 및 목적에 영향을 미치는 요인 연구)

  • Park, Imsu;Jung, Ilyoung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.167-177
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    • 2019
  • Innovation of genomics technology has recently been extended to Direct To Consumer Genetic Test (DTC-GT) which consumers purchase without requesting the service on medical institutes. In 2016, Korea has introduced the DTC-GT but the market size is small comparing to global market. This study analyzes consumers' purchase intentions and purposes and their influential factors based on 2018 consumer survey. According to the results of binominal and multinominal logistic regression, knowledge after purchase, attitude on medical care benefit, health status are statistically significant on purchase intentions. Purchase purposes are different on age group and related on medical care rather than health care. These results imply that DTC-GT is needed to improve consumer satisfaction, re-purchase and effective care service. This paper is expected to contribute on strategic directions for the new DTC-GT product development.

Marriage Intention AmongNever-Married Men and Women in Korea (미혼남녀의 결혼의향 비교분석)

  • Kim, Cheong-Seok
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2006
  • Patterns and changes of marriage have drawn much attention as they have been pointed out a key factor of low fertility. Nonetheless, systematic studies on marriage have been quite limited. This study, using recent nationwide survey on marriage and fertility, attempts to explain whether and how intention of marriage would differ between never married men and never married women. The logit regression analysis reveals that the likelihood of planning marriage between both sexes are still different even after controlling demographic characteristics, economic status, household and family background, and attitudes toward sex and premarital cohabitation. Furthermore, important factors affecting the likelihood of planning marriage turns out to be different between men and women. For instance, men with a job is more likely than men without a job to plan marriage. However, for women, the effect of having a job is not found. Such result, with other sex differential effects of living arrangement and attitudinal variable, suggests that the mechanism through which men and women transit from singlehood to marriage would differ. More attention on gender differential should be paid in developing conceptual arguments and conducting empirical analysis regarding marriage and its related topics.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

Project Experience and its Impact on Project Performance (프로젝트 경험이 프로젝트 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Yu, Gun Jea
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.365-373
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    • 2014
  • The assignment of exploration on individuals provides challenging work environments, while it generates high levels of complexity. On the other hand, the assignment of exploitation on individuals offers less challenging work environments, while it makes low levels of complexity. Give the characteristics of exploration and exploitation, I argue that the assignments of both exploration and exploitation create the favorable work environments to individuals. Developed hypotheses were tested using a logit regression from a sample of 168 project managers in a R&D center. I found that a manager who experienced exploitation project(s) is positively related to higher performance in exploitation project(s). In addition, a manager who experienced both exploitation and exploration projects are found to be positively associated with higher project performance.