• Title/Summary/Keyword: 델파이연구

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Development of the Speed Limit Model for Harbour and Waterway(I) - Considerations Discrimination for Speed Limit Decision - (항만과 수로의 제한속력 설정 모델 개발에 관한 연구(I) - 제한속력 설정을 위한 고려요소 식별 -)

  • Kim, Deug-Bong;Jeong, Jae-Yong;Park, Jin-Soo;Park, Young-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.171-178
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    • 2015
  • This research is the first research on developing the speed limit select model and also it is the result of the research on the importance of each element and consideration factors when selecting the speed limit. For the consideration factor discrimination and calculation of the importance, the delphi method and AHP method was used. The delphi survey was processed through third round survey, 5 high consideration factor(Level 1) and 23 low consideration factor(Level 2) was discriminated. During the process of the third delphi survey, when the CVR cost was in the range between 0.4~1.0 it was treated as the consideration factor when selecting the speed limit and less than 0.4 cost was eliminated. In the process of the second delphi survey, 33 consideration factors were discriminated but was reordered into 23 categories through the third survey. Based on the 23 categories earned through the third delphi analysis, the AHP survey was processed. The result of the AHP survey was that out of the importance of the 5 high consideration factor(Level 1), the traffic condition was evaluated as the number one factor and the vessel condition, waterway condition, environment condition, supporting condition and etc. conditions were evaluated following the traffic condition. Out of the 23 low consideration factor(Level 2) consideration, the visibility was evaluated to be the first important and the performance of the vessel steering, objective factors within the harbor, amount of traffic and density, distance between the passing vessel, speed of the steering capacity and tidal current were the following evaluated factors.

A Delphi Study for Deriving Directions for Future Elementary School Science Textbook (미래 초등 과학 교과용도서 방향성 도출을 위한 델파이 연구)

  • Chae, Dong-Hyun;Shin, Jung-Yun;Kim, Eun-Ae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to provide basic data to derive the direction of future elementary science curriculum books through delphi study of science education experts. To this end, a panel of 18 experts was formed and two delphi investigations were conducted. By analyzing the mean, median, and CVR values for each item in the Delphi survey, the priorities of changes in science education for the future society and the validity of each item's implementation method were verified. In addition, by synthesizing this, the direction of future elementary science textbooks was derived. As a result, the future elementary science textbook can be 'fun and interesting science study', 'exploration performance-oriented learning' and 'science that enjoys and participates even as an adult'. It should be developed to prepare for culture. For this, it is necessary to use materials in real life, and it is necessary to present an experiment that stimulates curiosity and easy access using materials and preparations with high accessibility. In addition, it is necessary to develop a textbook for learning that science is a discipline that is highly connected with real life, and that it is also related to future career paths.

Deriving Questions on the Evaluation Tools of Leisure Values for Senior Citizens: Based on the Delphi Survey (노인 여가 가치관 평가도구 문항 도출: 델파이 조사를 바탕으로)

  • Park, Da Sol;Yoo, Eun Young;Park, Ji-Hyuk;Hong, Ickpyo;Kim, Jung-Ran;Park, Hae Yean
    • Therapeutic Science for Rehabilitation
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.49-68
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    • 2022
  • Objective : This study aimed to conduct a Delphi survey of occupational therapists with experience in elderly occupational therapy to derive items about the 'Elder Leisure Value Assessment Tool'. Methods : This study was conducted in two stages. The first stage was the collection of preliminary questions, and the second stage was the Delphi survey. In the first stage, a literature review and analysis of the 2019 National Leisure Activity Survey were conducted. The modified Delphi technique of the Delphi investigation was implemented in two rounds. Results : In the preliminary item collection phase, 39 items were selected for leisure value assessment and 45 were listed for the participating leisure activities. Subsequently, a Delphi survey of 25 professional groups resulted in 38 leisure value assessment items and 45 participating leisure activities. Conclusion : The questions drawn from this study are meaningful because they can identify specific leisure activities that the elderly participate in, as well as the various values that the elderly consider important when participating in such activities

A Study on Segmentation and Priority of Tactical Considerations (METT+TC) (전술적 고려요소 (METT+TC)의 세분화 및 우선순위 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung-Jo;Park, Joon-Hyoung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.173-181
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to subdivide the tactical considerations (METT+TC; Mission, Enemy, Terrain & Weather, Troops available, Time available, Civil considerations) through Delphi method and prioritize those via AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). Though it has been taken for granted that the tactical considerations were inevitable for decision making relating to military operations, their segmentation and priority have not been studied sufficiently in military. The data for Delphi method and AHP were based on interview with military experts and questionnaires answered by those. Six tactical considerations were segmented into 34 sub-considerations by Delphi, and Six tactical considerations and 34 sub-ones were prioritized through AHP in attack and defense aspects. If the research results will be embedded into database of automatic command and control system (e.g. ACTIS; Army Tactical Command Information System), effective decision-making process will get easier and faster.

A Study on the Evaluation Criteria for the Performance of Smart Grid Pilot Projects (스마트그리드 시범사업 성과 평가기준 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Jae;Park, Chan-Kook
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.15-20
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    • 2012
  • South Korea is carrying out and expanding smart grid pilot projects to build a framework for a national smart grid and expand overseas markets. It is important to properly evaluate performance for the projects and further develop related businesses in a more desirable direction. This study is to provide evaluation criteria for the performance of smart grid pilot projects and a basis for further continuous development according to the type of projects. Evaluation criteria were selected through reviews of documental materials and expert discussions. The viability of the proposed draft in the situation of South Korea was examined by expert Delphi surveys. The Delphi surveys were conducted twice, and therefrom drawn were 18 evaluation criteria for 6 evaluation categories.

Study of Contents Development of Information Literacy with Delphi Survey (델파이 조사를 이용한 정보활용능력 교육 항목 개발 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Sil
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.303-322
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    • 2004
  • In this study, I worked on necessary contents for Information Literacy of Korean universities by Delphi Method. The survey resulted in 100 necessary contents in five categories and each category presents average points and ranks of importance. Contents of high rank in each category should be valued highly when educational programs are to be designed. One remarkable difference in comparison with ACRL standards is that there are a lot of contents involved with basic understanding about Scientific Information System and Information Technology and knowledge application in this study, and another is that there is a lack of contents which require analytic judgements. The significance of this study lies in presenting directions and discussion points in designing of Information Literacy of Korean universities.

Reliability of Delphi survey for traditional knowledge on agricultural resources (생물자원 전통지식 추출을 위한 델파이조사의 신뢰성 연구)

  • Lee, Ki Hoon;Song, Mi-Jang;Kim, Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.947-956
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    • 2015
  • In the knowledge and information age, to discover and protect Intellectual Properties would be very important for their economic value as a major growth engine. This study evaluated the reliability of a Delphi survey conducted by experts to assess the value of agricultural resources knowledge obtained from literature reviews and field interviews. Delphi method is collecting the opinions of experts for several rounds repeatedly, in the next round the experts have chance to modify their opinion. Scores between two rounds are highly correlated and standard deviations are declined for second round to imply that some correction of their evaluations are made. To check reliability of Delphi survey of two rounds Cronbach's reliability coefficient and Generalizability coefficient are derived. The Cronbach alpha's supported the reliability of the method, but the Generalizability analysis revealed some unexpected results while checking the variance components of sources of measurement errors. Despite the increased reliability coefficients, the deviations between the raters are increased which means that additional rounds are required to get consensus, the goal of Delphi research.

Development of Safety Usage Guidelines for Sedative Hypnotics Using the Delphi Technique (델파이 기법을 이용한 다빈도 수면진정제 안전사용지침 개발)

  • Nam, Yoon-Ju;Cho, Chul-Hyun;Lee, Yujin;Lee, Heon-Jeong
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.86-103
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The objective of this study was to develop evidence- and consensus-based clinical safety usage guidelines for sedative hypnotics using the Delphi technique. Methods: A group of 15 sleep experts from Korean Academy of Sleep Medicine were chosen for this study comprising a three-round web-based Delphi survey. The first round survey was composed of 39 questions to identify problems with sedative hypnotics usage in Korean clinical practice and the result roughly outlined what should be included in the guidelines. The second round survey was composed of 21 questions to collect specific opinions of experts on clinically important issues in prescribing sedative hypnotics, and its result provided the basis for the guidelines. A third round survey aimed to evaluate the reliability and validity of the established guidelines. Results: In the third round, all 17 items showed a median of 4 or more, with an average of 4.12 and a standard deviation of 0.32. Thus we present safety usage guidelines with 13 propositions for prescription, maintenance, and withdrawal of sedative hypnotics. Conclusion: The safety usage guidelines on sedative hypnotics developed from this study could lead to safe and effective prescription of hypnotics in clinical practice, especially for the non-experts in sleep medicine. Furthermore, the guidelines will help to improve the quality of insomnia treatment by contributing to the establishment of a safe regime for sedative hypnotics without excessive use of drugs.

A Study on Influence Factors for Tunnel Collapse Risk Analysis using Delphi Method (델파이 기법을 활용한 터널 붕괴 위험도 분석을 위한 영향인자 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong Heum;Kim, Chang Yong;Lee, Seung Soo;Lee, Jun Hwan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.165-172
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    • 2017
  • This research aims to define influence factors to perform an optimized section design and evaluate tunnel collapse risk during construction using Delphi technique. A total of five upper classification systems were constructed through literature review, pervious research analysis, and brainstorming of expert group for establishing influence factors. The $1^{st}$, $2^{nd}$, and $3^{rd}$ Delphi survey process was proceeded by panel group which is consisted 21 experts to prevent errors and bias in the expert judgement process. In Delphi $1^{st}$ survey, a total of 22 influence factors candidates were derived through open-ended questionnaire. In Delphi $2^{nd}$ survey, questionnaire was proceeded based on 7-point Likert scale method. In order to verify the validity, CVR (Content Validity Ration) analysis was performed to exclude inappropriate candidates. In the $3^{rd}$ survey, verification of influence factors was proceeded once more with the result of $2^{nd}$ survey, and lastly, a total of 14 influence factors was derived by CVR and COV (Content Validity Ration) analysis for response of experts.

Technology Evaluation using Patent Map and SOM Neural Network (특허맵과 자기조직화 신경망을 활용한 기술 평가)

  • Lee, Jang-Hui
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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    • 2009.10a
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    • pp.182-185
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    • 2009
  • 특정분야의 기술에 대한 중요도를 평가할 경우 일반적으로 해당 분야 기술의 전문가들의 의견을 델파이 방법을 이용하여 수렴하고 AHP 분석을 통해 기술의 우선순위를 결정하곤 한다. 그러나 전문가들의 직관적 판단에 의존하는 델파이 기법과 AHP 분석은 전문가 집단을 어떻게 선정하느냐에 따라 다른 결과를 초래하거나 항상 최적의 대안을 제시한다는 보장을 하지 못하므로 이에 대한 보완이 필요하다. 본 연구는 해당 기술 분야의 객관적인 자료인 특허 문서를 분석하여 델파이를 통해 도출된 전문가들의 기술 평가 결과의 타당성을 확인하도록 특허맵 분석을 활용할 것과 많은 대상 기술과 다양한 기술 평가 기준을 한꺼번에 고려하여 기술간 우선순위, 기술간 유사성, 기술군간 관련성을 쉽게 확인할 수 있는 SOM 신경망 분석을 활용할 것을 제안한다.

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