• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1998.10b
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• pp.466-466
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• 1998

도로 교통의 혼잡이 나날이 증가되고 있는 현실 상황에서 이를 해결하기 위한 새로운 도로의 무제한적 건설은 정보의 예산절약, 필요한 도로용지 확보의 어려움, 환경오염 문제 등으로 인해 현실적인 한계에 이르렀다. 따라서, 이러한 도로의 혼잡상황에 효과적으로 대처하기 위해서는 승용차를 이용하고자 하는 수요를 대량수송이 가능한 대중교통 이용수요로 전환시켜야 하며, 이를 위해서는 대중교통의 서비스수준 제고 및 운영 관리 체계 등의 개선이 필요하다. 이를 위한 전략적 및 운영적 측면에서의 대중교통계획은 미래 대중교통수요의 정확한 예측을 전제로 하여 수립되며, 이러한 수요의 예측은 필수적으로 현실을 보다 더 정확하게 묘사해 줄 수 있는 통행배정모형을 필요로 한다. 대중교통 통행배정은 규칙적인 배차시간과 정해진 노선을 운행하는 고정서비스 시스템으로 구성되어 있어서 한 링크 상에서도 여러 개의 운행노선을 고려해야 하기 때문에 승용차 통행배정과는 독립적으로 취급되어 왔으며, 이로 인해 그 동안 많은 연구가 선행되어 있지 않은 실정이다. 본 연구는 교통예측 프로그램 중의 하나인 EMME/2에서 사용하고 있는 대중교통수요 통행배정 모형인 최적전략모형(Optimal Strategy Model)의 단점을 보완하기 위한 것이다. 최적전략모형은 수요 배정시, 최적전략에 속하는 경로들에 대해 단순히 운행횟수에 비례하여 수요를 배정함으로 인해서, 예를 들면 운행횟수는 많지만 환승이 많은 경로에 수요를 많이 배정하는 것과 같은 비현실적인 결과가 발생하기도 한다. 본 연구는 이를 개선하기 위해서, 두 가지 대안을 제시했다. 먼저, 노선배정에 우선되는 최적경로 탐색시 환승노드에서의 환승에 대한 벌점을 그 노선의 운행회수에 줌으로써 환승이 많은 경로에 수요의 배정이 적게 되도록 하는 방법과 두 번째로 수요의 배정시 운행횟수가 아닌 목적지까지의 통행시간과 대시시간에 따른 확률적 배분을 통해 기존 모형의 단점을 보완하고자 했다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.43-55
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• 2003

This paper presents a new method for estimating potential transit ridership residential population and number of employees that have accesses to transit services. A standard procedure that can be used to determine transit accessibility by pedestrians ad automobiles are developed to improve its transit demand forecasting capability. The analysis results are compared with those from the traditional buffer method as well as the network ratio method. It was found that the proposed method is more accurate than the traditional methods. The new method can be used to better estimate the "Walk Access" transit trips and "Auto Access" transit trips in the Mode Choice Model.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.1-11
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of public transit accessibility on the Carsharing use demand. By utilizing the rental historical DB of Greencar which is operated in Suwon city and public transit GIS DB, the use demand models for Carsharing by rental offices are built and analyzed in accordance with public transit accessibility. The result indicates 73% of walking as a majority, 3% cycling, and 20% using buses and urban railways to access Carsharing rental offices. The goodness of fit of Carsharing use models reflecting accessibility to buses and railways is verified as 0.818 which proves that public transit accessibility is a significant variable. Therefore, it is verified that installing Carsharing rental offices where public transit transfer is convenient can possibly increase the use demand. Especially, while accessibility to buses is verified as a significant variable out of other public transit means, the accessibility to urban railways is verified as not significant. This suggests that a variety of complementary policies such as transfer discount policy and one-way transfer return policy are necessary in between urban railways and Carsharing in order to promote mutual use demand in accordance with the other public transit means. This study result is yet the basic research on Carsharing, however it is expected to contribute to improvement of transfer demand in between different public transit means.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.211-220
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• 2011

TOD(Transit Oriented Development) has recently been active, which presents that TOD planning elements should be comprehensively taken into consideration in order to enhance domestic transit ridership by changing environments in rail station areas and an empirical analysis on the type of rail station areas and transportation demand should be a prerequisite for usage of future development planning. This study aims to grasp a variety of TOD of influence factors in Seoul rail station area and to perform analysis to identify relationship between public transportation demand and these TOD design factors. To make it come true, we gathered data with respect to Density, Diversity, and Accessibility as representative TOD planning elements and carried out factorial and regression analysis. Consequently, we drew 7 influence factors base on factorial analysis: Factor 1(Diversity/ -Use Mix(LUM)), Factor 2(Density/development density), Factor 3(Accessibility/public transportation facility supply), Factor 4(Design/street design), Factor 5(Green/access mode (pedestrian, bike), Factor 6(Design/subway size), Factor 7(Accessibility/Public transit operation) As the result of model development by using factorial and regression analysis, positive influence factors on passenger flow in rail station area are Factor 1(Diversity : Land-Use Mix), Factor 3(Accessibility : public transportation facility supply), Factor 2(Density : development density), Factor 5(Design/ access mode) and Factor 6(subway size) Next, negative influence factor on passenger flow in rail station area shows Factor 7(Accessibility/Public transit operation) as the most influential factor. This is because the growth of service interval of linked subway and bus leads to reduced demand.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.4D
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• pp.467-472
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• 2009

Even if Seoul City administration improved its public transportation service, transportation model share in seoul has not been increased. Subway user is also decreasing. Therefore, policy transition into TOD(Transit Oriented Development) should be applied in oder to enhance subway modal share. This paper develops a influencing model by using variables of transportation demand and supply. In addition, it provides major influencing factors for users in subway station area and level of transportation supply based on the analysis results. The results show that: first, cluster analysis presents that traffic pattern is proved to be different according to land use characteristics(residence, non-residence); second, main transportation variables such as transferring distance, the number of bus stop, the number of short distant bus lines, and the number of bicycle are more supplied in residential area compared to non-residential areas; third, the number of lines, bus dispatching interval, operating time, and distance between subway stations are more supplied in non-residential areas than residential areas. All in all, the results will be useful for providing priority of considerations in case of decision-making on public transportation policy in subway station area.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.4D
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• pp.547-553
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• 2011

This study has redefined the concepts of mobility indexes and potential demand, standards to evaluate areas with the worst public transportation system and applied the relevant indexes to select the areas with the worst public transportation mobility and present a method to set direct public transportation lines between these regions. The mobility indexes and indexes to evaluate potential demand were applied to select the regions with the worst public transportation systems in four metropolitan cities and case studies were carried out on direct lines provided between these regions. The analysis results showed that in public transportation mobility blind spots, public transportation takes much longer than driving an automobile or public transportation services are not provided. In addition, the analysis showed that a direct lines system to solve such worst off regions should be built to have public transportation take as much time as driving an automobile by establishing lines for automobiles only, minimize time lost from hopping up and down a bus and maximize connections.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.93-103
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• 2002

우리 국민의 교통수요행태를 분석하기 위하여 준이상수요체계(almost ideal demand system) 함수형태의 집계교통수요모형을 설정하였다. 대중교통수단으로서 시내버스, 시외버스, 택시, 기차, 전철이 그리고 개인교통수단으로서 연료비가 포함되었으며, 기타재화 및 서비스에 대한 소비지출이 함께 추정되었다. 추정에 이용된 자료는 통계청의 "도시가계연보"에 수록된 '전국 도시가구 소비지출'과 "물가통계"에 수록된 '전국 도시소비자 물가'이다. 추정결과 모형의 설명력을 나타내는 수정결정계수(adjusted-$R^2$)는 대부분 0.9 내외에서 높게 나타났다. 추정계수는 총 51개중에서 25개가 5% 수준에서 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 추정된 계수값을 이용하여 가격탄력성과 소득탄력성을 구하였다. 자기가격탄력성과 소득탄력성 추정치는 조금 높기는 하나 부호와 상대적 크기가 모두 예상과 일치하고 다른 연구결과들과 유사한 범위에 있다. 연료비에 대한 소득탄력성은 1.72로 가장 높게 나타났고, 대중교통수단은 0.03~0.49 사이에서 나타나므로 교통수단이 정상재임을 의미한다. 보상수요의 교차가격탄력성은 총 15개의 교차관계에서 12개의 관계가 상식과 일치한다. 다음 연구에서는 더 많은 시계열자료를 발굴하여, 장기간의 교통수요 변화에 대한 분석을 시도할 필요가 있다. 또한 초월대수함수나 동태함수 등 다양한 형태의 수요함수를 시도할 필요가 있다. 여러가지 형태의 교통수요함수추정을 통해서 우리 현실에 적합한 교통수요모형을 발견할 수 있을 것이다. 대도시와 중소도시 등 지역별 지출자료를 발굴하여 지역특성을 반영하는 교통수요함수의 추정도 필요하다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.2493-2501
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• 2013

Various schemes of transportation demand management(TDM) to discourage the use of cars and enhance public transit performance have been implemented in large cities. Nevertheless, policy effects in reducing car have not been satisfactory. Car-dependent travelers who tend to keep driving cars regardless of the change of the trip circumstances as such increase of travel time and cost according to car use or improvement of public transit service may be due to not according to utility reflecting mode-specific impedance and their own socio-economic characteristics. In this study, travelers were classified into four groups by their choice frequency of private car and public transit in unspecified multiple trip(car-dependent, car-choice, public transit-choice, public transit-dependent class). And the characteristics of each group were comparative analyzed. The results show that the group of a higher car-dependent is a higher priority on convenience and comfortability of the car when making decisions and the group of a lower of car-dependent is likely to change to public transit.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.25-35
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• 2008

The ridership and transit systems are influenced by the expansion of metro-rail in Seoul metropolitan area. However, it has been difficult to measure its precise quantitative influences. Also effective policy implementations have been limited due to the lack of practical evidences. Thus an empirical analysis for an operating metro-rail is essentially required. In this regard, this study examines the impact of the Jungang line on transportation system, whose metro-rail block has been recently started new service. The main interest of this study is to find out the changes of ridership and to forecast the ridership changes by the metro-rail service. The results indicate that the effect on auto users is less than that of bus users. The auto demand is decreased by 33.3% and the bus demand by 66.6%. Additionally, its influence on Gyeonggi-do bus was greater compared with that on the Seoul bus. From questionnaire survey, this results could be confirmed. To sum up, the metro-rail gives less influences on auto users, while it gives greater influences on bus users.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.656-659
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• 2017

현대 사회에서는 다양한 이동수단 중 지하철, 버스 등의 대중교통에 대한 수요가 높은 편이다. 본 연구의 배경이 되는 서울특별시의 경우에는 출퇴근 시, 과반 수 이상이 대중교통을 이용한다. 대중교통 이용량에는 날씨, 평일-주말, 연착, 도로현황 등 여러 가지에 원인을 둔다. 본 연구에서는 여러 요인 중에서도 날씨 데이터(기온, 강수량, 미세먼지)에 초점을 두어, 날씨에 따른 대중교통 이용량의 변화양상을 학습하여 예측하는 연구를 진행한다. 서울특별시 25개 자치구마다의 날씨 데이터와 대중교통 이용 데이터를 이용하여 Regression을 통한 데이터 학습을 진행하였으며, 학습된 모델을 통한 날씨에 따른 서울특별시 대중교통 이용량 예측에 따른 평균 오차율은 15.49%로 낮은 오차율을 가진다. 본 연구 결과는 날씨에 따른 버스와 지하철의 배차 간격 조절 등의 대중교통 배치 판단 결정에 기초자료로 사용될 것으로 기대된다.