• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.318-321
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• 2000

이 연구는 정보통신기기 수출량에 관해 하향식(Top-down) 방법에 기초한 예측 모형을 제시한다. 하향식방법은 전체 수출량과 전체를 구성하는 개별 항목간에 계층적 관계를 바탕으로 순차적으로 예측을 수행하는 방법이다. 전체와 개별 항목간에 관계는 데이터의 시계열 특성과 데이터에 영향을 주는 요인들에 의해서 만들어진다. 이러한 관계를 바탕으로 하는 하향식 예측은 전체 수출량을 먼저 예측한 후 이 예측치를 바탕으로 하여 개별 항목에 대한 예측을 수행한다. 하지만 하향식 방법은 가장 아래 계층의 예측치를 산출하기 위해 필요한 것이며 최종 예측치는 가장 마지막 계층에서부터 예측 데이터를 합산해서 얻을 수 있다. 결국 하향식 예측 방법은 전체와 개별 항목 사이에 상관관계가 높고 계층화되어 있는 구조에 적합하다. 이 예측 대상이 되는 정보통신기기 수출량에 대한 적용 사례를 살펴보자. 계층 구조를 보면 정보통신기기 전체 수출량과 전체를 구성하는 개별 항목으로 정보통신기기 분류별(유선기기, 무선기기, 방송기기, 정보기기, 기타부품기기)과 국가별(미국, 일본, 중국 등 7 개국)로 나뉘어진다. 다시 이 아래 계층으로는 국가와 정보통신기기의 행렬 구조(예: 미국-유선, 일본-부품 등)에 의해 35 개로 나뉘어진다. 각 단계별 예측 방법을 보면 전체 수출량은 시계열 특성과 거시적 변수를 반영한 시계열 모형, 그 아래 계층인 국가별과 분류별 모형에는 전체 수출량 시계열 특성과 국가별과 분류별에 영향을 주는 관련 변수를 반영한 회귀모형 그리고 행렬 구조에 대한 예측은 상위 계층의 시계열 특성과 행렬구조 데이터의 계절성이 반영된 다중 회귀모형을 이용하였다.ndex, mobile user′s will first be classified by their traffic volume, and then calculate the average tariffs per minute of each group of users, and lastly weight-average those tariffs per minute. And finally, this paper shows the mobile tariff index by considering those averaged tariffs and the carriers′ market shares to reflect the contribution of individual carriers and the users′ traffic volume.완화될 수 있다. 즉, 봉지를 씌웅으로서 봉지 내의 대기 환경이 외기보다 안정적으로 유지되고 직사광선이나 농약 및 마찰로부터 과실을 보호해 주기에 동녹이 어느 정도 방지될 수 있는 것이다. 그러나 기존의 황금배봉지는 동녹의 정도를 완화시킬 뿐 완전히 방지할 수 없었으며, 봉지를 적 용한 재배조건에서의 동녹발생 기구를 정확히 이해하지 못했었기에 효과적으로 봉지의 기능 을 개선하는 것이 불가능하였다. 과설의 미려도는 과실의 맛과 함께 그 가치를 결정짓는 중요한 물성으로서 우리나라 황 금배 재배환경과 특성에 알맞은 배봉지의 제작이 선결될 때, 배 품질의 향상, 안정된 공급이 가능하게 될 것이며 아울러 농가의 수업증대와 수출 경쟁력 강화가 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 측면에서 황금배 재배농가가 당면한 동녹발생의 문제점을 신속한 해결 을

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.1-9
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• 2010

Predictive information on the freeway incident impacts can be a critical criterion in selecting travel options for users and in operating transportation system for operators. Provided properly, users can select time-effective route and operators can effectively run the system efficiently. In this study, a model is proposed to predict freeway incident impacts. The predictive model for incident impacts is based on short-term prediction. The proposed models are examined using MARE. The analysis results suggest that the models are accurate enough to be deployed in a real-world. The development of microscopic models to predict incident effects is expected to help minimize traffic delay and mitigate related social costs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.19-29
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• 2003

The purpose of this study is to analyse the effect of the parking information on the waiting time using the simulation method. Stated Preference survey has been implemented to construct the parking lot choice model. A queue simulation is carried out to investigate the effect of various parking information on the waiting time. The results show that providing parking information is likely to increase the utilization of parking place and to decease the waiting time of individual vehicle. Furthermore, as the parking demand increases, the detailed and quantitative parking information such as "5 minutes delay" is more effective than qualitative parking information such as "available".

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.65-74
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• 2019

For many years, it has been widely studied on fork-join production systems but there is not much literature focusing on the finite buffer(s) of either individuals or shared, and generally distributed processing times. Usually, it is difficult to handle finite buffer(s) through a standard queueing theoretical approach. In this study, by using the max-plus algebraic approach we studied buffer-shared fork-join production systems with general processing times. However, because it cannot provide proper computational ways for performance measures, we developed simulation models using @RISK software and the expressions derived from max-plus algebra. From the simulation experiments, we compared some properties on waiting time with respect to a buffer capacity under two blocking policies: BBS (Blocking Before Service) and BAS (Blocking After Service).

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.21-32
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• 2007

The linear traffic model(Vertical queueing model) that is adopted widely in traffic flow estimation assumes that all vehicles have the identical motion before joining a queue at the stop-line. Thus, a queue is supposed to form vertically not horizontally. Due to the simplicity of this model, the departure time of the leading vehicle is assumed to coincide with the start of effective green time. Thus, the delay estimates given by the Vertical queueing model is not always realistic. This paper explores a microscopic traffic model(a Kinematic Car-following model at Signalised intersections: a KCS traffic model) based on the one dimensional Kinematic equations in physics. A comparative evaluation in delay and sensitivity of delay difference between the KCS traffic model and the previously known Vertical queueing model is presented. The results show that the delay estimate in the Vertical queueing model is always greater than or equal to the KCS traffic model; however, the sensitivity of delay in the KCS traffic model is greater than the Vertical queueing model.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.473-481
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• 2017

It is well known that the air quality of 92% of the world is known to exceed the standard of WTO and the death caused by air pollution is almost 6 million per year. The $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in Korea is the second most serious among the OECD countries following Turkey. Since the $PM_{2.5}$ has a direct effect on the respiratory system, it has been actively studied in domestic and foreign countries. But current research on the $PM_{2.5}$ is limited in weather factor or air pollutants. In this paper, we consider the influence of spatial neighbor with weather factor or air pollutants using spatial panel model. We applied the proposed method to 25 borough of Seoul in Korea. The result shows a significant effect of spatial neighbor on the $PM_{2.5}$ concentration fields.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.3-17
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to develop a traffic assignment model where the variable of signal intersection delay is taken into account in assigning traffic in large-scale network settings. Indeed, despite the fact that the majority of the increase in travel time or cost involving congested urban network or interrupted flow are accounted for by stop delays or congested delays at signal intersections, the existing traffic assignment models did not reflect this. The traffic assignment model considering intersection delays presented in this study was built based on the existing traffic assignment models, which were added to by the analysis technique for the computation of intersection delay provided in Korea Highway Capacity Manual. We can conclude that a multiple variety of simulation tests prove that this model can be applied to real network settings. Accordingly, this model shows the possibility of utilizing a model considering intersection delay for traffic policy decisions through analysis of effects of changes in traffic facilities on large urban areas.

• Proceedings of the Society of Korea Industrial and System Engineering Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.133-138
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• 2002

In this paper, we model a two-server queueing system with priority, to which we put a restriction of the number of servers for each customer class. A group of customers is divided into two different classes. The class 1 customers has non -preemptive priority over class 2 customers. We use the method of PGF depending on the state of server We find the PGF of the number of customers in queue, server utilization, mean queue length and mean waiting time for each class of customers.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.27-44
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• 2000

In this study we consider a spares provisioning problem for repairable items in which a parts inventory system is incorporated. If a machine fails, a replacement part must be obtained at the parts inventory system before the failed machine enters the repair center. The inventory policy adopted at the parts inventory system is the (S, Q) policy. Operating times of the machine before failure, ordering lead times and repair times are assumed to follow a two-stage Coxian distribution. For this system, we develop an approximation method to obtain the performance measures such as steady state probabilities of the number of machines at each station and the probability that a part will wait at the parts inventory system. For the analysis of the proposed system, we model the system as a closed queueing network and analyze it using a product-form approximation method. A recursive technique as well as an iterative procedure is used to analyze the sub-network. Numerical tests show that the approximation method provides fairly good estimation of the performance measures of interest.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.130-140
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• 1999

This paper deals with a priority queueing model in an ATM system. Two types of customers are considered. Type-1 customers have push-put priority over type-2 customers. Type-1 customers can enter the service only when the number of type-2 customers is less than a threshold T. We derive the joint probability of the number of customers in the buffer, the mean waiting time, and the loss probabilities of each type. We also propose an optimal control policy that satisfies a given quality of service.