• Title/Summary/Keyword: 교통수요예측

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Traffic Analysis Model for Exit Ramp Congestion at Urban Freeway (고속도로 진출램프 대기행렬 발생 현상 분석모형 개발)

  • Jeon, Jae-Hyeon;Kim, Young-Chan
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.30-40
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    • 2010
  • The freeway congestion is largely generated by a mainline spillover of the exit ramp queue. So it is necessary to study for modeling of the phenomenon and applying the model. In this study, the authors evaluated applicability of the Supply-Demand model, which can express traffic flow for the freeway by applying flexibly supply and demand curves for capacity of the freeway. First the authors proposed methods processing input data required in the Supply-Demand model, such as sending & receiving functions and time-varying capacity constraints for the freeway mainline. After modeling the Supply-Demand application model, the authors applied the model to the site including congested Hongeun exit ramp in Seoul Ring-road, and improved the model by adjusting application techniques and calibrating parameters. The result of the analysis showed that the Supply-Demand model yielded a queuing pattern and queue location similar to them observed in the field data, and applicability of the Supply-Demand model was varified.

Trip Generation Model based on Geographically Weighted Regression (공간가중회귀분석을 이용한 통행발생모형)

  • Kim, Jin-Hui;Park, Il-Seop;Jeong, Jin-Hyeok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2011
  • In most of the urbanized cities, socio-economic attributes tend to cluster as patterns of similarity in space, namely spatial autocorrelation, by agglomeration forces. The classical linear regression model, the most frequently adopted in the trip generation step, cannot sufficiently represent this effect. In order to take into account the effect properly, we need a model which adequately deals with the spatial dependence patterns. In this study, the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model is adopted as an alternative method for the local analysis of relationships in multivariate data sets; that is GWR extends this traditional regression framework by estimating local rather than global parameters. This study shows the existence of spatial effects in the production and attraction of home base/non-home based trips through the GWR model using travel data collected in Daegu metropolitan area. Furthermore, LISA is employed to verify the fact that the local spatial autocorrelation exists.

Development of a Discriminant Model for Changing Routes considering Driving Conditions and Preferred Media (주행여건과 선호매체를 고려한 경로전환 판별모형 개발)

  • Choe, Yun-Hyeok;Choe, Gi-Ju;Mun, Byeong-Seop;Go, Han-Geom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.147-158
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    • 2010
  • Studies on the distribution of traffic demands have been proceeding by providing traffic information for reducing greenhouse gases and reinforcing the road's competitiveness in the transport section, however, since it is preferentially required the extensive studies on the driver's behavior changing routes and its influence factors, this study has been developed a discriminant model for changing routes considering driving conditions including traffic conditions of roads and driver's preferences for information media. It is divided into three groups depending on driving conditions in group classification with the CART analysis, which is statistically meaningful. And, elements of the driving conditions and the preferred media affecting the change of paths are classified into statistical meaningful groups through the CHAID analysis, and the major factors affecting the change of paths are examined. Finally, the extent that driving conditions and preferred media affect a route change is examined through a discriminant analysis, and it is developed a discriminant model equation to predict a route change. As a result of building the discriminant model equation, it is shown that driving conditions affect a route change much more, the entire discriminant hit ratio is derived as 64.2%, and this discriminant equation shows high discriminant ability more than a certain degree.

Development of the Operating Cost Estimation Models to Evaluate the Validity of Urban Railway Investment (도시철도 투자타당성 평가를 위한 운영비용 추정모형 개발)

  • KIM, Dong Kyu;PARK, Shin Hyoung;KIM, Ki Hyuk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.465-475
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    • 2016
  • Since inaccurate demand estimation for recent urban rail construction may result in financial burden to cities, precise prediction for operating cost as well as construction costs is necessary to avoid or reduce budget loss of the local or central government. The operating cost is directly related to the public fare and affect a policy to determine the rate system. Therefore, there is a pressing need to develop an estimating model for reliable operating cost of urban railway. This study introduces a new model to estimate the operating cost with new variables. It provides a better prediction in accuracy and reliability compared to the existing model, considering the feature of urban railway. For verification of our model, railway operation data from a few cities for the last five years were comprehensively examined to determine variables that affect the operating cost. The operating cost was estimated in a dummy regression model using five independent variables, which were average distance between stations, daily trains distance, total passenger capacity of a train in a train, driving mode(manned/unmanned), and investment type(financial/private).

A study on the potential market conditions and the road map of Korean vehicles for people with disabilities (장애인 복지차 시장현황과 한국형 장애인 복지차 로드맵에 관한 연구)

  • Rhee, K.M.;Kim, D.O.
    • Journal of rehabilitation welfare engineering & assistive technology
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.29-37
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest the potential domestic and international market conditions vehicles for people with disabilities through a review of the literature and internet resources, and to propose a road map developing South Korean vehicles for people with disabilities taking into consideration the current state of domestic and international technology and the usage of the vehicles for people with disabilities depending on the type of disability. The results of the study are as follows: First, vehicles for people with disabilities safety standards of South Korea do not meet the safety standards of developed countries and the technology of development related vehicles for people with disabilities is not as advanced as that of developed countries. Vehicles for people with disabilities installation methods, specifications, features and safety standards should be designed to be more similar to those of Japan and the United States. Second, vehicle modifications for people with disabilities will become more common as measures directed at promoting the welfare of people with disabilities, such as travel and transportation measures, employment opportunities, education, and funding for vehicle modifications, are implemented along with laws, such as The Americans with Disabilities Act, The British Disability Discrimination Act, and Japan's barrier-free transport law, that protect people with disabilities generally. Third, through a comparative analysis of domestic and international market conditions and demands of people with disabilities in vehicle modifications, important things to pay attention by purchasing a modified vehicle for people with disabilities are the employment rate for people with disabilities and monthly income. To enable this, government agencies and industry bodies should work together through the revision of the current Disability Welfare Act or the enactment of the special law for guiding principles of Disability Welfare Act. Through the future changes in vehicles for people with disabilities-related system or society of South Korean, the annual demand of the vehicles is expected to be more than 10,000.

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Study and Evaluation of an Incident Detection Algorithm for Urban Freeways (도시고속도로 돌발상황 감지 알고리즘 개발에 관한 연구 및 평가)

  • Seo Jeong-ho;In Sung-man;Kim Young-chan
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.3 no.1 s.4
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 2004
  • A series of accidents, which are non-recurrent and non-anticipated, are called incidents. These incidents make standard traffic flows interrupt, which result in the decrease of road capacity and a number of social and economic costs, such as the traffic congestion and air pollution. In order to prevent the hazard of incidents, domestic and foreign traffic management center are likely to opt auto-sense system with algorithms of auto-incident sense. However, it is evaluated that the algorithms have a low function with frequent wrong alarms, even if they accurately ry to speculate the incidents. In the case of bottleneck which has lack of road capacity, compared with other roads, due to inefficient road structured over-capacity of the demand of on-off ramp, the incidents regularly take place. Nonetheless, it can be more difficult to speculate the auto-incidents sense owing to similar incidents, such as the queue of in-out flows of cars and the change of road line. Throughout this research, the function of the model has improved excluding near road line in the module of the incidents which is based on the auto-incidents algorithms during the sense of the congestion of ramp areas.

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A Study on the Analysis Effect Factors of Illegal Parking Using Data Mining Techniques (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 불법주차 영향요인 분석)

  • Lee, Chang-Hee;Kim, Myung-Soo;Seo, So-Min
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2014
  • With the rapid development in the economy and other fields as well, the standard of living in South Korea has been improved, and consequently, the demand of automobiles has quickly increased. It leads to various traffic issues such as traffic congestion, traffic accident, and parking problem. In particular, this illegal parking caused by the increase in the number of automobiles has been considered one of the main reasons to bring about traffic congestion as intensifying any dispute between neighbors in relation to a parking space, which has been also coming to the fore as a social issue. Therefore, this study looked into Daejeon Metropolitan City, the city that is understood to have the highest automobile sharing rate in South Korea but with relatively few cases of illegal parking crackdowns. In order to investigate the theoretical problems of the illegal parking, this study conducted a decision-making tree model-based Exhaustive CHAID analysis to figure out not only what makes drivers park illegally when they try to park vehicles but also those factors that would tempt the drivers into the illegal parking. The study, then, comes up with solutions to the problem. According to the analysis, in terms of the influential factors that encourage the drivers to park at some illegal areas, it was learned that these factors, the distance, a driver's experience of getting caught, the occupation and the use time in order, have an effect on the drivers' deciding to park illegally. After working on the prediction model, four nodes were finally extracted. Given the analysis result, as a solution to the illegal parking, it is necessary to establish public parking lots additionally and first secure the parking space for the vehicles used for living and working, and to activate the campaign for enhancing illegal parking crackdown and encouraging civic consciousness.

Developing a Latent Class Model Considering Heterogeneity in Mode Choice Behavior : A Case of Commuters in Seoul (수단선택의 이질성을 고려한 잠재계층모형(Latent Class Model) 구축: 서울시 통근자를 사례로)

  • Kim, Sung Hoo;Choo, Sangho
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.44-57
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    • 2019
  • It is crucial to understand how people make decisions on mode choice and to accurately predict their behaviors in transportation planning. One of avenues for advancing modeling is, in particular, taking into account for taste heterogeneity in modeling that can incorporate different decision-making processes across group. In this study, we hypothesize that how people make decisions on mode choice would differ by destination in that land use characteristics are heterogeneous by zone even if zones are all in the same area. To this end, we apply Latent Class Modeling (LCM) to commute trips in Seoul by using 2010 household travel diary survey, investigate types of latent classes with the aid of characteristics of destination, and analyze how those classes differently response to factors. The LCM identifies two classes: in the first one, modal split of auto and public transit (bus and metro) is almost half-and-half and the trip destinations are characterized by relatively more residence facilities and less business/commercial facilities; in the second one, public transit has a notably high share and trip destinations are characterized by relatively more business/commercial facilities. In addition, it turns out that demographic and socio-economic variables affect mode choice differently by class.

개발사업으로 인한 토양손실량 예측 및 침사지 설계

  • 우효섭;김창완
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 1998.02d
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    • pp.1101-1179
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    • 1998
  • 최근에 내무부에서는 개발사업으로 인한 토사유출 피해 중 인명과 재산 피해와 같은 재해 성격을 가진 대규모 토사유출을 사전에 미리 저감시킬 목적으로 재해영향평가제를 도입하여 추진하고 있다. 이에 따라 건설 엔지니어링 업계에서는 대규모 개발 사업으로 인한 가속화된 토양손실량 예측과 침사지 설계에 많은 관심이 쏟아지고 있으나 이 분야의 기술축적과 자료부족으로 과업수행에 어려움을 겪고 있다. 본 강좌에서는 이러한 엔지니어링 업계의 기술적인 어려움을 다소 나마 해소할수 있도록 개발사업으로 인한 가속화된 토양손실량 예측방법과 침사지 설계 기준에 대해 외국의 자료를 바탕으로 그 동안 국내에서 수행한 각종 재해영향평가 자료를 검토하여 제시한다. 먼저, 재해영향평가제의 취지, 토사유출과 재해, 토사유출 재해 저감대책 등에 대해 간략히 설명한다. 다음, 침식량 예측 방법으로 미국의 범용토양 손실공식(USEL) 방법의 적용 절차에 대해 구체적으로 소개한다. 침사지 설계 편에서는 침사지 설계 개념과 구체적인 설계 절차를 제시하고 참사지 규모의 결정방법을 소개한다. 본 강좌의 교재는 미국교통연구단(TRB)의 국립합동도로연구프로그램(NCHRP)#70 자료를 주로 참고하였다. 이 자료는 부록에 원본 전부를 수록하였다. 다만 아직 이 분야 연구가 미흡한 관계로 본 강좌에서는 재해저감 측면에서 합리적인 침사지 설계 기준을 완전히 제시하지 못하고 있다. 참고로 국립방재연구소의 박무종/강대환 연구팀이 기존의 재해영향평가서 자료 중에서 10개를 선정하여 침사지 소요수면적 산정, USEL 적용, 강우침식도 R의 산정 등에 대해 사례 조사 분석한 결과를 부록에 수록하였다.을 기해야 한다. 있다. 청주권의 무심천도 계획상은 대청댐의 물을 공급 받을수도 있도록 되어 있으나 현실상으로 상수도 원수로서의 공급마저도 매년 심한 원수 수질 문제(5-6월, 10월경의 취수장 부근의 부영양화 현상으로 인한 악취와 물 맛의 문제)를 1984년부터 겪고 있다. 이와 같이 도시권 하천의 수자원은 자연적, 인위적, 경제적, 법적, 제도적 여러 제한 요소로서 특성을 가지고 있으며 이는 날로 심해 가고 있는 실정이다. 그러므로 최적 물관리 시스템의 개발이 새로이 시작하는 수자원 개발 사업에서는 계획 단계에서부터 절실히 요구되는 바이며 기존 시설물의 관리 운영은 과감히 그 운영 관리 기준을 보완 재 정비하여야 할 것이다. 지금까지 대부분의 수자원 종합 개발 계획이 홍수방이나 용수 공급 및 수력 개발 등에 주력하여 왔으나 이제는 보다 더 수자원의 환경 보전적 차원과 도시의 안정적 발달을 위한 지역 및 권역 계획과 연계지워져서 양적인 안정 공급과 더불어 질적인 향상과 연계지워서 경제-사회적 요구에 부응할 수 있도록 도시권의 수자원을 최적 관리할 수 있는 방안을 강구하여야 할 것이다. 이는 각 도시 하천의 수자원의 정량적·정성적인 특성 및 제한 요소를 충분히 감안하여 수요-공급 개념에 의하여 과감히 기존 시설(예: 팔당댐의 운영, 대청댐의 운영 등)의 관리 운영 체계를 개선하여 나가야 할 것이며, 수질 보전적-환경 보전 차원에서 저수관리 체계를 확고히 할 수 있는 방안을 강구하여야 할 것이다.펄스주입법에 의해 증착된 박박은 강유전성 이력을 나타내었다.지역과 비도시지역을 비교하는 조사 연구가 필요하며, 이러한 조사결과를 바탕으로 자녀의 식습관에 대

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Freight Transport Demand and Economic Benefit Analysis for Automated Freight Transport System: Focused on GILC in Busan (인터모달 자동화물운송시스템 도입을 위한 화물운송수요 및 사업편익분석 - 부산 국제산업물류도시를 중심으로-)

  • SHIN, Seungjin;ROH, Hong-Seung;HUR, Sung Ho;KIM, Donghyun
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.17-34
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to analyze the freight transport demand and benefit for the introduction of an automated freight transport system focusing on the Global Industry and Logistics City (GILC) in Busan. In pursuit of this aim, four alternatives were calculated - using the freight volume estimating methods and included, the number of businesses, the number of employees set up, future estimated cargo volume, and switched volume from other transport modes into the GILC. Economic benefits were analyzed against social benefits and costs accordingly. The result of the freight transport demand forecast found, the cargo volume of "Alternative 2-1" to be the most advantageous, applying the number of employee unit method and proportion of employees in Gangseo-gu, Busan. In addition to the conventional analysis of direct benefit items (reduction of transport time, traffic accidents and environmental costs), this study also considered additional benefit items (congestion costs savings, and road maintenance costs in terms of opportunity cost). It also considered advanced value for money research in guidance on rail appraisal of U.K, Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan 2003 of Germany, and RailDec of the United States. The study aims to further contribute to estimating minimum cargo transport demands and assess the economic feasibility of the introduction of new intermodal automated freight transport systems in the future.