• Title/Summary/Keyword: 공사비 예측

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Cost Prediction Model using Qualitative Variables focused on Planning Phase for Public Multi-Housing Projects (정성변수를 고려한 공공아파트 기획단계 공사비 예측모델)

  • Ji, Soung-Min;Hyun, Chang-Taek;Moon, Hyun-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.91-101
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    • 2012
  • In planning phase of Public Multi-Housing Projects, it is required to develop the methodology and criteria for fair cost prediction with influencing power from planning phase to occupancy phase. Many studies still have focused on the prediction of cost by multiple regression. However, there is no logical explanation about the influence of nonmetric variables for the prediction of cost in planning phase. Accordingly, this research pursues a cost prediction model including nonmetric variables for use in planning phase. There are 3 steps of this research : 1) Finding the factors influencing construction cost and assigning variables for a multiple regression. 2) Conducting a dummy regression analysis with nonmetric variables and model validation by comparing actual cost data. 3) Developing the ratio of RC structure cost to wall structure cost by using cost predection model. The results could establish cost prediction process including the influence of nonmetric variables and the ratio of RC structure cost to wall structure cost.

Direction for Improving Cost Estimation and Management of Construction Projects : Comparing to Australian System (건설공사 공사비 예측 및 관리기술 발전방향 : 호주 사례를 중심으로)

  • Ji, Sae-Hyun;Park, Moon-Seo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Yoon, You-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.170-181
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    • 2008
  • Cost of construction project have to be estimated based on drawing before execution. Cost estimate and check would be performed numerously for preparing general outline of requirements and determining the budget at conceptual planning stage, for obtaining decision on every matter related to design, specification, construction and cost at design stage, and for predicting bidding cost. Thus, importance of cost estimation cannot emphasize too much in construction. However, there are lack of standard estimation method, process, and cost analysis method, that square foot estimation method is as used as eyer, in Korea. Thus, This research present the direction for improving cost estimation and management in construction; It is demanded that establishing standard data base methodology, multi-level database model CUBE, and standard cost planning process, choosing cost estimation methodology according to objectives and cost planning process, and making more experts.

A Study on the Prediction-Formulas of Approximate Estimate Based on Actual Work Cost for Subway (실적공사비에 의한 지하철 공사비 예측모형에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Hyuk;Jeon, Yong-Bae;Park, Hong-Tae
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2013
  • This study proposed cost prediction equation model by considering duration, construction, size, actual cost with the subway construction started by the actual cost system which was introduced since 2004. Costs - scale exponent n(confidence range: 0.5 to 0.7) for cost prediction of subway construction was drawn total cost(0.713), net cost(0.77) in point of the 11 subway construction data. The cost prediction equation model of the subway construction which was presented in this study is able to effectively apply to business planning, preliminary investigation, feasibility study, basic design stage to estimate the approximate cost in the future.

Prediction of Final Construction Cost and Duration by Forecasting the Slopes of Cost and Time for Each Stage (공사 진행단계별 기울기 추정을 통한 최종 공사비 및 공기 예측)

  • Jin, Eui-Jae;Kwak, Soo-Nam;Kim, Du-Yon;Kim, Hyoung-Kwan;Han, Seung-Heon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.137-142
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    • 2006
  • Cost and duration is important factors which directly affect profit therefore must be forecasted correctly to accomplish success of projects. So construction company uses EVMS(Earned Value Management System) to forecast final cost and duration. But previous forecasting model has low accuracy because of its linear forecasting method and can't reflect characteristic of company and project and changes as each progress. This paper presents cost and duration forecasting model using the slope prediction of cost and duration as each progress to reflect the various characteristics of construction industry. EVMS data of 23 road construction projects was used to make up regression analysis equation of slope forecasting model.

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Cost Estimation Model Framework of Road Construction Project through Quantity of Standard Work (대표물량을 활용한 도로공사 개략공사비 산정모델 프레임워크)

  • Kwak, Soo-Nam;Kim, Du-Yon;Han, Seung-Heon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.607-612
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    • 2007
  • Early cost estimation promote efficient budget plan by comparing alternatives and presenting cost information However it is hard to predict accurate cost because of vague cost standard and lack of available information in the early stage. The precious cost model has limitations in the accuracy because they are simple linear model which uses the unit cost per kilometer. This study presents the framework of early cost estimation for road construction projects to overcome the limitation of previous cost model. This study analyzed domestic and foreign cost model and cost data of previous road construction project to present method of cost model framework.

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A Study on the Prediction of the Construction Cost in Planning Stage of Local Housing Union Project (지역주택조합사업 기획단계의 공사비 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jin-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.653-659
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    • 2018
  • The accurate prediction of construction cost is a key factor in a project's success. However, it is hard to predict the construction costs in the planning stages rapidly and precisely when drawings, specifications, construction cost calculation statements are incomplete, among other factors. Accurate construction-cost prediction in the planning stage of a project is also important for project feasibility studies and successful completion. Therefore, various techniques have been applied to accurately predict construction costs at an early stage when project information is limited. There are many factors that affect the construction cost prediction. This paper presents a construction-cost prediction method as multiple regression model with seven construction factors as independent variables. The method was used to predict the construction cost of a local housing union project, and the error rate was 4.87%. It is not possible to compare the cost of the project at the planning stage of the local housing union project, but it has high prediction accuracy compared to the unit price of an existing unit area. It is likely to be applied in construction-cost calculation work and to contribute to the establishment of the budget for the local housing union project.

Approximate Estimating Model Using the Case Based Reasoning - PSC BEAM Bridge - (사례기반추론을 이용한 개략공사비 산정모델 개발 - PSC BEAM교를 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, Chan-Sung;Lee, Geon-Hee;Kim, Kyoung-Min;Kim, Kyong-Ju
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.445-448
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    • 2008
  • This study attempts to estimate approximate cost on construction of PSC BEAM Bridge using Case-Based Reasoning and suggests approximate estimation model at the planning and design stage. This paper suggests phased influence factors on construction cost and approximate estimation model for integrated project cost management.

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Analysis of the Construction Cost Prediction Performance according to Feature Scaling and Log Conversion of Target Variable (피처 스케일링과 타겟변수 로그변환에 따른 건축 공사비 예측 성능 분석)

  • Kang, Yoon-Ho;Yun, Seok-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.317-326
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    • 2022
  • With the development of various technologies in the area of artificial intelligence, a number of studies to application of artificial intelligence technology in the construction field are underway. Diverse technologies have been applied to the task of predicting construction costs, and construction cost prediction technologies applying artificial intelligence technologies have recently been developed. However, it is difficult to secure the vast amount of construction cost data required for machine learning, which has not yet been practically used. In this study, to predict the construction cost, the latest artificial neural network(ANN) method is used to propose a method to improve the construction cost prediction performance. In particular, to improve predictive performance, a log conversion method of target variables and a feature scaling method to eliminate the difference in the relative influence of each column data are applied, and their performance in predicting construction cost is compared and analyzed.

Cost Estimating in Early Stage Using Parametric Method for Apartment Construction Projects (파라메트릭 방법(Parametric Method)을 이용한 사업초기 단계의 공사비 예측 방법)

  • Seong, Ki-Hoon;Park, Mun-Seo;Lee, Hyun-Su;Ji, Sae-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.207-211
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    • 2008
  • The importance of cost management in early stage has been increasing due to market change and competition severence in construction industry. Because the adjustable budget is only 20% after finishing design stage, the critical decision is made in the early stage. However, in the early stage, the design information is not enough to make crucial decision. Therefore, this research suggests the predicting method on the purpose of accurate cost estimation. The parametric estimation is appropriate for the early stage, especially it has the strength of rapidity in cost estimation. This research analyzes 84 actual data of public apartment on the scale of $11{\sim}15$ stories, and then performs the correlation analysis between cost and influence factors. After eliminating the parameters which causes the problem of multicollinearity, this research derived the formula through the multi-regression analysis.

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Approximate Estimating Model for PSC BEAM Bridge Using Influence Factors (PSC BEAM 교량 공사비 영향요인을 이용한 개략공사비 산정모델 개발)

  • Kang, Chan-Sung;Lim, Won-Seok;Kim, Kyoung-Min;Kim, Kyong-Ju
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.585-588
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    • 2007
  • This study attempts to analyze estimating process and the level of information performing literature review and questionnaire and identify phased influence factors on construction cost using phased information of project and suggests framework of approximate estimation model at the planning and design stage. This paper suggests phased influence factors on construction cost and framework of approximate estimation model for integrated project cost management.

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