• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
• /
• v.14 no.5
• /
• pp.187-195
• /
• 2009

In a fault tree analysis, an uncertainty importance measure is often used to assess how much uncertainty of the top event probability (Q) is attributable to the uncertainty of a basic event probability ($q_i$), and thus, to identify those basic events whose uncertainties need to be reduced to effectively reduce the uncertainty of Q. For evaluating the measures suggested by many authors which assess a percentage change in the variance V of Q with respect to unit percentage change in the variance $\upsilon_i$ of $q_i$, V and ${\partial}V/{\partial}{\upsilon}_i$ need to be estimated analytically or by Monte Carlo simulation. However, it is very complicated to analytically compute V and ${\partial}V/{\partial}{\upsilon}_i$ for large-sized fault trees, and difficult to estimate them in a robust manner by Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, we propose a method for experimentally evaluating the measure using a Taguchi orthogonal array. The proposed method is very computationally efficient compared to the method based on Monte Carlo simulation, and provides a stable uncertainty importance of each basic event.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.99-115
• /
• 2014

Uncertainties in design variables and design equations have a significant impact on the safety of geotechnical structures like retaining walls and slopes. This paper presents a possible framework for obtaining the partial safety factors based on reliability approach for different random variables affecting the stability of a reinforced concrete cantilever retaining wall and a slope under static loading conditions. Reliability analysis is carried out by Mean First Order Second Moment Method, Point Estimate Method, Monte Carlo Simulation and Response Surface Methodology. A target reliability index ${\beta}$ = 3 is set and partial safety factors for each random variable are calculated based on different coefficient of variations of the random variables. The study shows that although deterministic analysis reveals a safety factor greater than 1.5 which is considered to be safe in conventional approach, reliability analysis indicates quite high failure probability due to variation of soil properties. The results also reveal that a higher factor of safety is required for internal friction angle ${\varphi}$, while almost negligible values of safety factors are required for soil unit weight ${\gamma}$ in case of cantilever retaining wall and soil unit weight ${\gamma}$ and cohesion c in case of slope. Importance of partial safety factors is shown by analyzing two simple geotechnical structures. However, it can be applied for any complex system to achieve economization.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
• /
• v.17 no.3
• /
• pp.27-37
• /
• 2021

Highly informative heuristics in AI planning can help to a more efficient search a solutions. However, in general, to obtain informative heuristics from planning problem specifications requires a lot of computational effort. To address this problem, we propose a Partial Planning Graph(PPG) and Mixed Heuristics for solving planning problems more efficiently. The PPG is an improved graph to be applied to can find a partial heuristic value for each goal condition from the relaxed planning graph which is a means to get heuristics to solve planning problems. Mixed Heuristics using PPG requires size of each graph is relatively small and less computational effort as a partial plan generated for each goal condition compared to the existing planning graph. Mixed Heuristics using PPG can find partial interactions for each goal conditions in an effective way, then consider them in order to estimate the goal state heuristics. Therefore Mixed Heuristics can not only find interactions for each goal conditions more less computational effort, but also have high accuracy of heuristics than the existing max and additive heuristics. In this paper, we present the PPG and the algorithm for computing Mixed Heuristics, and then explain analysis to accuracy and the efficiency of the Mixed Heuristics.

• Water for future
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.89-97
• /
• 1992

This study is to verify the applicability of statistical models for predicting flood frequency at the stage gaging stations selected by considering whether the flow is natural condition in the Han River basin. From the result of verification, this statistical flood frequency models showed that is fairly reasonable to apply in practice, and also were compared with sampling variance to calibrate the statistical dfficiency of the estimate of the T year flood Q(T) by two different flood frequency models. As a result, it was showed that for return periods greater than about T=10 years the annual exceedence series estimate of Q(T) has smaller sampling variance than the annual maximum series estimate. It was showed that for the range of return periods the partial duration series estimate of Q(T) has smaller sampling varianed than the annual maximum series estimate only if the POT model contains at least 2N(N:record length)items or more in order to estimate Q(T) more efficiently than the ANNMAX model.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.168-176
• /
• 2000

Related to the error dynamics of an adaptive system, averaging theorems are developed for coupled differential equations which consist of ordinary differential equations and a parabolic partial differential equation. The results are then applied to the convergence analysis of the parameter estimate errors in the model reference adaptive control of a nonautonomous parabolic partial differential equation with lowly time-varying parameters.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
• /
• v.10 no.4
• /
• pp.388-392
• /
• 2007

A new dielectric test on main relays of electric traction vehicles, the partial discharge(PD) test, is proposed. The PD test will not affect the insulation performance of specimen during the test and provide much more detailed information on insulation, the types of defects, and so on. Insulation performance of relays is estimated by discharge inception voltage(DIV), discharge extinction voltage (DEV), and apparent charge as a function of test voltage and time. Three main relays of different manufacturing date were estimated by applying AC voltage with three patterns in ranges of $0{\sim}1,200[V]$. From the results, we could estimate insulation state and which types of defects exist in them.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.17 no.3
• /
• pp.919-925
• /
• 2006

Maximum likelihood estimate(MLE) is obtained from the partial log-likelihood function for the cell probabilities of two way incomplete contingency tables proposed by Chen and Fienberg(1974). The partial log-likelihood function is modified by adding lagrangian multiplier that constraints can be incorporated with. Variances of MLE estimators of population proportions are derived from the matrix of second derivatives of the loglikelihood with respect to cell probabilities. Simulation results, when data are missing at random, reveal that Complete-case(CC) analysis produces biased estimates of joint probabilities under MAR and less efficient than either MLE or MI. MLE and MI provides consistent results under either the MAR situation. MLE provides more efficient estimates of population proportions than either multiple imputation(MI) based on data augmentation or complete case analysis. The standard errors of MLE from the proposed method using lagrangian multiplier are valid and have less variation than the standard errors from MI and CC.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
• /
• 2004.07a
• /
• pp.477-480
• /
• 2004

In other to estimate an electrical properties of the cross linked polyethylene cable, the partial discharge properties due to charge of electrode shape(needle and bar) and void size were investigated at room temperature. Fast trip and breakdown time were appeared by the closed of needle electrode. The trip and breakdown voltage depend on insulator thickness. As the result, confirmed larger effect of void size than effect of insulator thickness. The effect of voids size than influence of insulation thickness was dominated by internal an electrode of inner insulators.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.253-266
• /
• 2019

In this article, a systematic solution based on the sequence of expansion method is planned to solve the time-fractional diffusion equation, time-fractional telegraphic equation and time-fractional wave equation in three dimensions using a current and valid approximate method, namely the ADM, VIM, and the NIM subject to the estimate initial condition. By using these three methods it is likely to find the exact solutions or a nearby approximate solution of fractional partial differential equations. The exactness, efficiency, and convergence of the method are demonstrated through the three numerical examples.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.28 no.5
• /
• pp.493-510
• /
• 2021

The present article endeavours to develop partial optional randomized - response technique (PORT) to deal with sensitive issues in presence of non-response in successive sampling. Calibration techniques have been embedded with PORT to estimate sensitive population mean at current move in two move successive sampling in presence of non-response. Optimum calibration weights are computed at each move with the aid of constraints based on auxiliary information. Detailed properties of the proposed estimators have been discussed. Possible cases in which non-response may creep at two moves has been explored. The proposed technique has been compared with the modified existing technique. Simulation results indicate that the proposed technique is more efficient than existing, modified one. Suitable recommendations are forwarded.