• 한국안전학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.5-13
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• 1992

If zero-accident movement is to be successful, the objective goal period should be surely obtainable, and much more in our country where frequency rate of injury are remarkably fluc-tuating. However In our country, as far as we know, no method to establish a reasonable zero-accident goal period is guaranteed. In thls paper, a new establishing-method of reasonable goal period for individual industry with considering recent accident trend is presented. A mathematical model for industrial accidents generation was analyzed, and a stochastic process model for the accident generation inteual was formulated. This model could tell the accident generation rate in future by understanding the accident tendency through the time-series analysis and search for the distribution of numbers of accidents and accident interval. On the basis of this, the forecasting method of goal achievement probability by the size and the establishment method of reasonable goal period were developed.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.47-52
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• 2010

Many industrial accidents have occurred over the years in the manufacturing and construction industries in Korea. However, as the service industry has increased continuously, the share of the accident rate in the service industry was 39.07% in 2009, while the manufacturing industry share was 33.73%. The service industry share overtook the manufacturing industry share for the first time. Therefore, this research considers prevention of industrial accidents in the service industry as well as manufacturing and construction industries. This paper describes a procedure and a method to estimate efficient accident rate forecasting and estimated zero accident time in the service industry in order to prevent industrial accidents in the transportation, storage, and telecommunication divisions. This paper proposes a model using an analytical function for the sake of very efficient accident rate forecasting. Accordingly, this paper has develops a program for accident rate forecasting, zero accident time estimating, and calculation of achievement probability through MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software Visual Studio 2008 in the transportation, storage, and telecommunication divisions. In results of this paper, ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrating Moving Average) is regarded as a very efficient forecasting model for the transportation, storage, and telecommunication division. In testing this model, value minimizing the Sum of Square Errors (SSE) was calculated as 0.2532. Finally the results of this paper are sure to help establish easy accident rate forecasting and strategy or method of zero accident time in the service industry for prevention of industrial accidents.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.43-49
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• 2010

본 연구는 청주시의 가로구간 교통사고를 다루고 있다. 연구의 목적은 가로구간의 사고모형을 개발하는 데 있다. 이를 위해서 이 연구에서는 전체 322개 세부구간으로 분리된 간선도로의 사고 자료를 이용하여 ZAM 모형을 개발하는데 중점을 두고 있다. ZAM 모형의 일종인 ZIP(zero inflated Poisson model)과 ZINB(zero inflated negative binomial model)를 중심으로 분석한 연구의 주요결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 모형의 적합성을 결정하는 Vuong 통계 값과 과분산계수 ${\alpha}$의 t 통계 값을 바탕으로 개발된 다양한 모형을 평가한 결과, 포아송, 음이항, ZIP 및 ZINB 회귀모형 중 ZINB 모형이 최적인 것으로 나타난다. 둘째, ZINB 모형은 t, ${\rho}$ 및 ${\rho}^2$값 (0.63)의 관점에서 보면, 다른 모형에 비해서 통계적으로 매우 의미 있는 모형으로 평가된다. 마지막으로, 개발된 ZINB 모형의 사고 요인은 교통량, 진출입구 수 그리고 중앙분리대 길이로 분석된다. 교통량과 진출입구 수는 사고발생에 '+'요인, 그리고 중앙분리대 길이는 '-'요인으로 평가된다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.87-94
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• 2017

Many industrial accidents have occurred continuously in the manufacturing industries, construction industries, and service industries of Korea. Fatal accidents have occurred most frequently in the construction industries of Korea. Especially, the trend analysis of the accident rate and fatal accident rate is very important in order to prevent industrial accidents in the construction industries systematically. This paper considers forecasting of the accident rate and fatal accident rate with static and dynamic time series analysis methods in the construction industries. Therefore, this paper describes the optimal accident rate and fatal accident rate by minimization of the sum of square errors (SSE) among regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, proposed analytic function model (PAFM), and kalman filtering model (KFM) with existing accident data in construction industries. In this paper, microsoft foundation class (MFC) soft of Visual Studio 2008 was used to predict the accident rate and fatal accident rate. Zero Accident Program developed in this paper is defined as the predicted accident rate and fatal accident rate, the zero accident target time, and the zero accident time based on the achievement probability calculated rationally and practically. The minimum value for minimizing SSE in the construction industries was found in 0.1666 and 1.4579 in the accident rate and fatal accident rate, respectively. Accordingly, RAM and ARIMA model are ideally applied in the accident rate and fatal accident rate, respectively. Finally, the trend analysis of this paper provides decisive information in order to prevent industrial accidents in construction industries very systematically.

• 자동차안전학회지
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.35-41
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• 2023

On December 19, 2015, as Article 29-3 (Installation of Accident Recording Devices and Provision of Information) of Motor Vehicle Management Act came into force, In Korea, the EDR (Event Data Recorder) reports are often used for the analysis of various traffic accident cases such as multiple collisions, traffic insurance crimes, and sudden unintended acceleration (SUA), and the others. So many investigators have analyzed the driver's behavior and vehicle situation by comparing the time zero in the EDR report to the actual crash time in dash-cam (or CCTV). Time zero (T0) is defined as the reference time for the record interval or time interval when recording an accident in Article 56-2, Enforcement rule of Performance and Standard for Automobile and Automotive parts. Also in the EDR report, time zero (T0) is defined as whichever of the following occurs first; 1. "wake-up" by an air-bag control system, 2. Continuously running algorithms (by monitoring of longitudinal or lateral delta-V), 3. Deployment of a non-reversible deployment restraint. We have already proposed the "Flowchart & Checklist" to adopt the EDR report for traffic accident investigation and the necessity of specialized institutions or courses to systematically educate or analyze the EDR data. Therefore, in this paper, we report to traffic accident investigators notable points and analysis methods based on some real-world traffic accidents that can be misjudged in specifying time zero (T0).

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.119-129
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• 2014

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop the U-turn accident model at 4-legged signalized intersections in urban areas. METHODS : In order to analyze the characteristics of the accidents which are associated with U-turn operation at 4-legged signalized intersections in urban areas and develop an U-turn accident model by regression analysis, the tests of overdispersion and zero-inflation are conducted about the dependent variables of number of accidents and EPDO (Equivalent Property Damage Only). RESULTS : As their results, the Poisson model fits best for number of accident and the ZIP (Zero Inflated Poisson) fits best for EPOD, the variables of conflict traffic, width of opposing road, traffic passing speed are adopted as independent variable for both models. The variables of number of bus berths and rate of U-turn signal time at which the U-turn is permitted are adopted as independent variable only for EPDO. CONCLUSIONS : These study results suggest that U-turn would be permitted at the intersection where the width of opposing road is wider than 11.9 meters, the passing vehicle speed is not high and U-turn operation is not hindered by the buses stopping at bus stops.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.61-67
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• 2010

Though "Zero Accident Campaign" is a desirable campaign for industrial accident prevention and reducing victims, the number of industrial enterprises has been decreasing abruptly in recent years. One of the reasons for this phenomenon may be attributed to irrationality of 'target accident-free time periods' established by related organizations. This study was carried out to develop a new rational scheme for the campaign. Therefore, for a numerical basis, Poisson process was introduced, and problems induced by current target periods were analyzed mathematically one by one. As a result, it was verified that current target periods were uneven since the probability that manufacturing plants get them would be different form industry to industry. To develop countermeasures, a brand new method were suggested in this research. The first characteristic was that group classification should be based upon average accident rates resulted from past several years, and the second was that adjustment probability which can make the target acquisition probability even. About the suggested method, a questionnaire survey was conducted. To make a conclusion, most manufacturing plants agreed with the suggested method such high affirmative portion that the suggested method would be expected to help promote the campaign again.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.273-286
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• 1998

As there has arisen a concern that failure of the high burnup fuel under the reactivity-insertion accident(RIA) may occur at the energy lower than the expected, fuel behavior under the rod ejection accident in a typical Westinghouse-designed 950 MWe PWR was analyzed by using the three dimensional nodal transient neutronics code, PANBOX2 and the transient fuel rod performance analysis code, FRAP-T6. Fuel failure criteria versus the burnup was conservatively derived taking into account available test data and the possible fuel failure mechanisms. The high burnup and longer cycle length fuel loading scheme of a peak rod turnup of 68 MWD/kgU was selected for the analysis. Except three dimensional core neutronics calculation, the analysis used the same core conditions and assumptions as the conventional zero dimensional analysis. Results of three dimensional analysis showed that the peak fuel enthalpy during the rod ejection accident is less than one third of that calculated by the conventional zero dimensional analysis methodology and the fraction of fuel failure in the core is less than 4 %. Therefore, it can be said that the current design limit of less than 10 percent fuel failure and maintaining the core coolable geometry would be adequately satisfied under the rod ejection accident, even though the conservative fuel failure criteria derived from the test data are applied.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제56권6호
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• pp.2092-2098
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• 2024

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) plays a critical role in ensuring the safe operation of nuclear power plants. In PSA, event trees are developed to identify accident sequences that could lead to core damage. These event trees are then transformed into a core-damage fault tree, wherein the accident sequences are represented by usual and complemented logic gates representing failed and successful operations of safety systems, respectively. The core damage frequency (CDF) is estimated by calculating the minimal cut sets (MCSs) of the core-damage fault tree. Delete-term approximation (DTA) is commonly employed to approximately solve MCSs representing accident sequence logics from noncoherent core-damage fault trees. However, DTA can lead to an overestimation of CDF, particularly when fault trees contain many nonrare events. To address this issue, the present study introduces a new zero-suppressed ternary decision diagram (ZTDD) algorithm that averts the CDF overestimation caused by DTA. This ZTDD algorithm can optionally calculate MCSs with DTA or prime implicants (PIs) without any approximation from the core-damage fault tree. By calculating PIs, accurate CDF can be calculated. The present study provides a comprehensive explanation of the ZTDD structure, formula of the ZTDD algorithm, ZTDD minimization, probability calculation from ZTDD, strength of the ZTDD algorithm, and ZTDD application results. Results reveal that the ZTDD algorithm is a powerful tool that can quickly and accurately calculate CDF and drastically improve the safety of nuclear power plants.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.164-170
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• 2012

In this study, a new technique for detecting near miss using 4M risk assessment method is suggested. Until now, the safety education with instances of near miss has just been progressed in most industrial settings, without any systematic guideline. By menas of appling 4M risk assessment method, the organized technique, which could effectively manage the fundamental prevention of industrial accident in advance, is developed. The organized technique of near miss-management suggested in this study will take an effective role in basically expanding the application of risk assessment method, as well as in contributing the activity of zero-accident as a safety guideline in hazardous workshops.