Mathematical Basis for Establishing Reasonable Objective Periodsin Zero Accident Campaign

Though "Zero Accident Campaign" is a desirable campaign for industrial accident prevention and reducing victims, the number of industrial enterprises has been decreasing abruptly in recent years. One of the reasons for this phenomenon may be attributed to irrationality of 'target accident-free time periods' established by related organizations. This study was carried out to develop a new rational scheme for the campaign. Therefore, for a numerical basis, Poisson process was introduced, and problems induced by current target periods were analyzed mathematically one by one. As a result, it was verified that current target periods were uneven since the probability that manufacturing plants get them would be different form industry to industry. To develop countermeasures, a brand new method were suggested in this research. The first characteristic was that group classification should be based upon average accident rates resulted from past several years, and the second was that adjustment probability which can make the target acquisition probability even. About the suggested method, a questionnaire survey was conducted. To make a conclusion, most manufacturing plants agreed with the suggested method such high affirmative portion that the suggested method would be expected to help promote the campaign again.

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