• Title/Summary/Keyword: volume forecast

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A Study on Typical Rates of Water-use for Primary School, Middle School and High School Facilities (초.중.고등학교 시설의 급수 사용량에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyu-Saeng
    • Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.510-515
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    • 2007
  • A Study on Typical Rates of Water-use for School Facilities has been carried out in this work. Water supply system is given much weight in school facilities. Therefore, it set up a basis efficiency using of water sources to calculate typical rates of water use. The results are summarized as follows ; 1) On the whole, typical rates of water-use was founded out 15 L / stu. d in pirmary school, 10 L / stu. d in middle school and 30L / stu. d in high school smaller than the existing it. It was rate of water-use change as season and Max. Rates of water-use was July. 2) I deem that school hours are 5 hour's in primary school, 7 hour's in middle school and 8 hour's in high school. It the concept of 1 hour that is lesson time 40 minutes and resting time 10 minutes in primary school, lesson time 45 minutes and resting time 10 minutes in middle school and lesson time 50 minutes and resting time 10 minutes in high school. 3) It is desired that we calculate the volume of pump and water tank throughout this concept and the size of water tank should be 1.5 times with taking pick load into consideration by this study on typical rate of water-use. 4) The amount of using water increases in gradually and I consider the life cycle of facilities is more than 10 years. As a result, I can forecast that the size will be insufficiency but I deem that if we devise a plan about parallel pumping on water tank space, we can cope with it. Also, it is expected that we can cut back the transport energy by controlling pump volume.

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Sensitivity Analysis of the Runoff Model Parameter for the Optimal Design of Hydrologic Structures (수공구조물의 적정설계를 위한 유출모형 매개변수의 민감도 분석)

  • Lee, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Mun-Mo;Yeo, Woon-Kwang
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.755-758
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    • 2008
  • Currently, the increased run-off and the shortened arrival time are one of the causes of the city environmental disasters in urbanization. Therefore, it is necessary to properly design the hydrologic structures, but it is very difficult to forecast the values necessary to design from the planning stage. Moreover, as the parameter is changed due to the urban development, it is difficult not only to analyze the run-off influences but also to find the related studies and literatures. The purpose of this study is to utilize the results as the important basic data of the hydrologic structures, its proper design and run-off influences through the sensibility analysis of the model parameter variables. In this study, the absolute and relative sensibility analysis method were used to find out the correlation through the sensibility analysis of the topology and hydrology parameters. Especially, in this study, the changes in the run-off amount and volume were calculated according to increase/decrease in CN, the coefficient of discharge, and the empirical formula is prepared and proposed through the regressive analysis among the parameters. In the meantime, the parameter sensibility analysis was performed through the simulation HEC-HMS that is used and available in Korea. From the results of this study, it was found that the run-off amount is increased about by 10% when the CN value is increased by 5% before and after the development through the HEC-HMS simulation and data analysis. As long as there will be additional data collection analysis and result verification, and continuous further studies to find out the parameters proper to the domestic circumstances, it is expected to considerably contribute to the proper design of the hydrologic structures with respect to the ungauged basin.

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The Analysis of Determinants of Currency Internationalization in a Multipolar World Economy and its Prospects (다극화시대의 국제통화 결정요인 분석 및 전망)

  • Kim, Hyungsik;Hwang, Yun-Seop
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.349-368
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    • 2011
  • The emergence of new multipolar world economy along with the predominant growth of emerging economies encourages these emerging countries to internationalize their currencies. Currently the discrepancy between qualification and status of international currency is easily observed, and the emerging market currencies are no doubt underestimated considering their share of the world's economic size and trade volume. This paper studies the determinant factors of currency internationalization for five key currencies (US Dollar, Yen, Euro, Pound, and Swiss Franc). The analysis shows economic size, trade volume, and the stability of price and exchange rate are most important. Based on this result, Chinese Yuan is forecast to become a new international currency in the near future. Therefore, Korea needs to preempt the issue of regional economic integration, and even currency integration, by taking into account the possibility of internationalized Yuan.

Analysis of GHG Reduction Potential on Road Transportation Sector using the LEAP Model - Low Carbon Car Collaboration Fund, Fuel Efficiency, Improving Driving Behavior - (LEAP 모형을 이용한 도로교통부문의 온실가스 감축잠재량 분석 - 저탄소차협력금제도, 연비강화, 운전행태개선을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Min wook;Yoon, Young Joong;Han, Jun;Lee, Hwa Soo;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2016
  • This study the efficiency of greenhouse gas reduction of 'low carbon car collaboration fund' and its alternative 'control of average fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas', and 'improving driving behavior' were analyzed by using LEAP, long term energy analysis model. Total 4 scenarios were set, baseline scenario, without energy-saving activity, 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario, 'fuel efficiency improving scenario', and 'improving driving behavior' scenario. The contents of analysis were forecast of energy demand by scenario and application as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emission volume, and the period taken for analysis was every 1 year during 2015~2030. Baseline scenario, greenhouse gas emission volume in 2015 would be 7,935,697 M/T and 13,081,986 M/T in 2030, increased 64.8%. The analysis result was average annual increase rate of 3.4%. The expected average annual increase rate of other scenarios was, 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario 1.7%, 'fuel efficiency improving' scenario 3.0%. and 'improving driving behavior' scenario 3.4%. and these were each 1.7%, 0.3%. 0.3% reduce from baseline scenario. The largest reduction was 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario, and there after were 'fuel efficiency improving scenario', and 'improving driving behavior' scenario.

A Study on the Revitalization of Railway freight transportation Through forecasting of container volumes on Busan New & North port (신항과 북항의 철도물동량 예측에 따른 철도운송 활성화 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Sam-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.131-146
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to predict the railway cargo volume on Busan new-port and north-port, in order to revitalize railway transport. This paper is organized as follows. Section 1 presents the description of the objective and methods on this study. Section 2 presents the status of Railway Cargo volumes and Construction plan of railway facilities in Busan New port. Section 3 presents the Forecast Railway Cargo volume using a volume ratio, actual volume records and another predicted datas. Section 4 summarizes our conclusions and further research topics. Especially, korea faces enforcement of green Logistics policy. Modal shift to trail freight transportation is one of ways, but there are no more detail plans. so it need that a cooperation system in government department, a indirect subside policy shift to rail freight transportation from trucking for revitalization of Railway Freight transportation.

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Technical Consideration for Production Data Analysis with Transient Flow Data on Shale Gas Well (셰일가스정 천이유동 생산자료분석의 기술적 고려사항)

  • Han, Dong-kwon;Kwon, Sun-il
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents development of an appropriate procedure and flow chart to analyze shale gas production data obtained from a multi-fractured horizontal well according to flow characteristics in order to calculate an estimated ultimate recovery. Also, the technical considerations were proposed when a rate transient analysis was performed with field production data occurred to only $1^{st}$ transient flow. If production data show the $1^{st}$ transient flow from log-log and square root time plot analysis, production forecasting must be performed by applying different method as before and after of the end of $1^{st}$ linear flow. It is estimated by an area of stimulated reservoir volume which can be calculated from analysis results of micro-seismic data. If there are no bottomhole pressure data or micro-seismic data, an empirical decline curve method can be used to forecast production performance. If production period is relatively short, an accuracy of production data analysis could be improved by analyzing except the early production data, if it is necessary, after evaluating appropriation with near well data. Also, because over- or under-estimation for stimulated reservoir volume could take place according to analysis method or analyzer's own mind, it is necessary to recalculate it with fracture modeling, reservoir simulation and rate transient analysis, if it is necessary, after adequacy evaluation for fracture stage, injection volume of fracture fluid and productivity of producers.

The Effects of the Changes of Economic Variables on the Import Container Volume of Gwangyang Port (경제변수의 변동이 광양항 수입컨테이너 물동량에 미치는 효과)

  • Mo, Soo-Won
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.269-282
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    • 2009
  • This study investigates the difference of behavioral patterns between the import container volume of all ports and that of Gwangyang port in Korea. All series span the period January 1999 to December 2008. I first test whether the series are stationary or not. I can reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration at the 5 percent significance level. I hitherto make use of variance decompositions and impulse response functions, both of which have now been widely used to examine how much movement in one variable can be explained by innovations in different variables and how rapidly these fluctuations in one variable can be transmitted to another. The variance decompositions for the import container volume show that the proportions of the forecast error variance of import container volumes explained by themselves are 30 and 26 per cent after 12 months, respectively. As a result, innovations in exchange rate and business activity explain 70 and 74 per cent of the variance in the import container volume. All in all, innovation accounting indicates that import container volumes are not exogenous with respect to exchange rate and business activity. The impulse responses indicate that container volumes decrease sharply to the shocks in exchange rate and decay very slowly to its pre-shock level, while container volumes respond positively to the shocks in the business activity and disappear very slowly, showing that the shocks last very long. Furthermore Gwangyang port is more sensitive to the change of the exchange rate and the industrial production than all ports.

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Comparative Analysis of Surface Heat Fluxes in the East Asian Marginal Seas and Its Acquired Combination Data

  • Sim, Jung-Eun;Shin, Hong-Ryeol;Hirose, Naoki
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2018
  • Eight different data sets are examined in order to gain insight into the surface heat flux traits of the East Asian marginal seas. In the case of solar radiation of the East Sea (Japan Sea), Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments ver. 2 (CORE2) and the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes (OAFlux) are similar to the observed data at meteorological stations. A combination is sought by averaging these as well as the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-1 data to acquire more accurate surface heat flux for the East Asian marginal seas. According to the Combination Data, the annual averages of net heat flux of the East Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea are -61.84, -22.42, and $-97.54Wm^{-2}$, respectively. The Kuroshio area to the south of Japan and the southern East Sea were found to have the largest upward annual mean net heat flux during winter, at -460- -300 and at $-370--300Wm^{-2}$, respectively. The long-term fluctuation (1984-2004) of the net heat flux shows a trend of increasing transport of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere throughout the study area.

Spectral Analysis Accompanied with Seasonal Linear Model as Applied to Intra-Day Call Prediction (스펙트럼 분석과 계절성 선형 모델을 이용한 Intra-Day 콜센터 통화량예측)

  • Shin, Taek-Soo;Kim, Myung-Suk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.217-225
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, a seasonal variable selection method using the spectral analysis accompanied with seasonal linear model is suggested. The suggested method is applied to the prediction of intra-day call arrivals at a large North American commercial bank call center and a signi cant intra-month seasonal variable I detected. This newly detected seasonal factor is included in the seasonal linear model and is compared with the seasonal linear models without this variable to see whether the new variable helps to improve the forecasting performance. The seasonal linear model with the new variable outperformed the models without it in one-day-ahead forecasting.

Exhibition Monitoring System using USN/RFID based on ECA (USN/RFID를 이용한 ECA기반 전시물 정보 모니터링 시스템)

  • Kim, Gang-Seok;Song, Wang-Cheol
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2009
  • Nowadays there are many studies and there's huge development about USN/RFID which have great developmental potential to many kinds of applications. More and more real time application apply USN/RFID technology to identify data collect and locate objects. Wide deployment of USN/RFID will generate an unprecedented volume of primitive data in a short time. Duplication and redundancy of primitive data will affect real time performance of application. Thus, security applications must filter primitive data and correlate them for complex pattern detection and transform them to events that provide meaningful, actionable information to end application. In this paper, we design a ECA Rule system for security monitoring of exhibition. This system will process USN/RFID primitive data and event and perform data transformation. It's had applied each now in exhibition hall through this study and efficient data transmission and management forecast that is possible.

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