• ETRI Journal
• /
• 제45권4호
• /
• pp.636-649
• /
• 2023

Renewable energy generation cannot be consistently predicted or controlled. Therefore, it is currently not widely used in the electricity market, which requires dependable production. In this study, reliability- and variance-based controls of energy storage strategies are proposed to utilize renewable energy as a steady contributor to the electricity market. For reliability-based control, photovoltaic (PV) generation is assumed to be registered in the power generation plan. PV generation yields a reliable output using energy storage units to compensate for PV prediction errors. We also propose a runtime state-ofcharge management method for sustainable operations. With variance-based controls, changes in rapid power generation are limited through ramp rate control. This study introduces new reliability and variance indices as indicators for evaluating these strategies. The reliability index quantifies the degree to which the actual generation realizes the plan, and the variance index quantifies the degree of power change. The two strategies are verified based on simulations and experiments. The reliability index improved by 3.1 times on average over 21 days at a real power plant.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국정밀공학회 2005년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.1797-1802
• /
• 2005

In this study, we were developed an accuracy of the proposed two dimensional statical inclinometer what used a position sensitive detector(PSD) by an error analysis. The inclinometer consists of a laser source, a mass, an optic-fiber, and a PSD. The gravity direction on a base platform of the inclinometer is changed by an unknown inclination angle. And a laser spot is moved from the origin to another position of a PSD following a variation of an optical path by the gravity. These processes enable the inclinometer to estimate the inclination angle from distance information of the moving spot. A design methodology on the basis of a sensitivity analysis was applied to improve the measurement performance such as a full measuring range and a resolution. But it still has error factors, so we analyze the uncertainty of the inclinometer to evaluate the systematic errors from alignments, assembly error and so on. The experimental performance evaluation about the design objectives as a measuring range and a resolution was performed. And the validity and the feasibility of the design process were certified by an experimental process. Systematic errors eliminated to improve the accuracy of the inclinometer by the corrected measuring model from the calibration process between the inclination angle and the PSD position instead of the nominal measuring model. The ANOVA(analysis of variance) confirmed the effect of eliminating the systematic errors in the inclinometer. From these methodologies, the proposed inclinometer was able to measure with a high resolution(35.14sec) and a wide range(from $-15^{\circ}\;to\;15^{\circ}$

• 전자공학회논문지
• /
• 제51권9호
• /
• pp.148-156
• /
• 2014

MVDR(minimum variance distortionless response) 적응 어레이에서 조향벡터(steering vector)에 에러가 있으면 원하는 신호(desired signal)도 감쇠되어 성능이 심하게 저하될 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 에러에 대응할 수 있는 계산이 간편한 기법을 제안한다. 제안한 방법에서는 DCB(doubly constrained beamforming) 원리에 기초한 최소화 문제의 해 벡터를 구하고, 이벡터를 부공간에 투사하여 새로운 조향벡터로 사용한다. 최소화 문제의 해결과 부공간 투사에 필요한 주 고유쌍(principal eigenpairs)은 PASTd(projection approximation subspace tracking with deflation)를 변형한 MPASTd(modified PASTd)에 의거하여 직접 상관행렬(correlation matrix)을 추정함이 없이 수신 데이터로부터 구해진다. 그리고 고유쌍 계산에 있어, 기존에 알려진 MPASTd를 개선해서 계산량을 절감하면서 효과적으로 구하는 방법을 제시한다. 제안한 적응어레이 기법은 상관행렬을 추정하고 이를 고유분해(eigendecomposition)하는 기존방식보다 계산량을 크게 줄이고 우수한 성능을 가질 수 있다.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
• /
• 제20권2호
• /
• pp.200-209
• /
• 2019

미래 값을 예측할 때, 학습 오차(training error)를 최소화하여 추정된 모형은 보통 많은 테스트 오차(test error)를 야기할 수 있다. 이것은 추정 모델이 주어진 데이터 집합에만 집중하여 발생하는 모델 복잡성에 따른 과적합(overfitting) 문제이다. 일부 정규화 및 리샘플링 방법은 이 문제를 완화하여 테스트 오차를 줄이기 위해 도입되었지만, 이 방법들 또한 주어진 데이터 집합에서만 국한 되도록 설계되었다. 본 논문에서는 테스트 오차 최소화 문제를 학습 오차 최소화 문제로 변환하여 테스트 오차를 줄이기 위한 새로운 최적화 방법을 제안한다. 이 변환을 수행하기 위해 주어진 데이터 집합에 대해 의사(pseudo) 데이터라고 하는 새로운 데이터를 추가하였다. 그리고 적절한 의사 데이터를 만들기 위해 결측 데이터 보정법의 세 가지 유형을 사용하였다. 예측 모델로서 선형회귀모형, 자기회귀모형, ridge 회귀모형을 사용하고 이 모형들에 의사 데이터 방법을 적용하였다. 또한, 의사 데이터로 조정된 최적화 방법을 활용하여 환경 데이터 및 금융 데이터에 적용한 사례를 제시하였다. 결과적으로 이 논문에서 제시된 방법은 원래의 예측 모형보다 테스트 오차를 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• 제28권4호
• /
• pp.415-433
• /
• 1999

This paper considers the design of step-stress accelerated life tests for the Weibull distribution with a nonconstant shape parameter under Type I censoring. It is assumed that scale and shape parameters are log-linear functions of (possibly transformed) stress and that a cumulative exposure model holds for the effect of changing stress. The asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a stated quantile at design stress is used as an optimality criterion. The optimum three step-stress plans are presented for selected values of design parameters and the effects of errors in pre- estimates of the design parameters are investigated.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• 제24권1호
• /
• pp.31-44
• /
• 1995

In fitting a model, there always exists a discrepancy between the fitted model and the true functional relationship. In measuring this discrepancy, Box and Drapper (1959) used the criterion dividing the discrepancy into two parts which are the bias error part and the variance error one in single response case. In this paper, an optimum design which makes these two types of errors as small as possible is found by extending the Box and Drapper criterion to multiple response situation. Especially, a design is found to meat rotatability conditions when we fit a quadratic model to each response fearing cubic bias. Using the central composite design, an application of general results to a specific case is shown to help understanding the material.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 제어로봇시스템학회 2005년도 ICCAS
• /
• pp.2516-2520
• /
• 2005

In this paper, finite impulse response (FIR) smoothers are proposed for discrete-time systems. The proposed FIR smoother is designed under the constraints of linearity, unbiasedness, FIR structure, and independence of the initial state information. It is also obtained by directly minimizing the performance criterion with unbiased constraints. The approach to the MVF smoother proposed in this paper is logical and systematic, while existing results have heuristic assumption, such as infinite covariance of the initial state. Additionally, the proposed MVF smoother is based on the general system model that may have the singular system matrix and has both system and measurement noises. Thorough simulation studies, it is shown that the proposed MVF smoother is more robust against modeling uncertainties numerical errors than fixed-lag Kalman smoother which is infinite impulse response (IIR) type estimator.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제21권2호
• /
• pp.193-200
• /
• 2014

It was recognized by some researchers that the disturbance variance in a censored regression model is frequently underestimated by the maximum likelihood method. This underestimation has implications for the estimation of marginal effects and asymptotic standard errors. For instance, the actual coverage probability of the confidence interval based on a maximum likelihood estimate can be significantly smaller than the nominal confidence level; consequently, a Bayesian estimation is considered to overcome this difficulty. The behaviors of the maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators of disturbance variance are examined in a fixed effects panel regression model with a limited dependent variable, which is known to have the incidental parameter problem. Behavior under random effect assumption is also investigated.

• 한국공작기계학회논문집
• /
• 제17권4호
• /
• pp.133-139
• /
• 2008

With the increasing demand for higher production quality and growing competition in the global market, coordinate measuring machine(CMM) has been widely used in industry to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of measurement. In this paper the performance evaluation of coordinate measuring machine is proposed using design of experiments. A factorial design is applied to carry out the performance test proposed by ISO 10360 with a length bar and to investigate CMM measurement errors associated to orientation and length in the work volume. The determination of the significance of effects in an experiment is made through the analysis of variance(ANOVA). The results show that the proposed method is suitable to analyze the factors which affect the CMM measurement performance.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
• /
• 제22권6호
• /
• pp.57-65
• /
• 2017

Six soil subsampling methods were evaluated with explosive compounds-contaminated soils to quantify the variance associated with each method. The methods include modified grab sampling, simplified ripple splitting, fractional shoveling, coning & quatering, degenerate fractional shoveling, and rolling & quatering. All the methods resulted in significantly lower CV (coefficient of variation) of 1~5%, compared to common grab sampling that gave 8~98% of CV, possibly due to the reduction of grouping and segregation errors described by Gy sampling theory. Among the methods, simplified ripple splitting tends to result in lower explosive compounds concentrations, while the rolling & quatering gave the opposite result. Fractional shoveling method showed the least variance and the highest reproducibility in the analysis.